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Last night, I wrote a little piece at JaneTheActuary.com<\/a> (my personal website which I mostly use for retirement stuff) about Pritzker\u2019s (non-)re-opening plan.\u00a0 But I try not to be too ranty on that site and, honestly, I\u2019ve spent the entire day fuming at his plan, and am hoping that if I rant a little bit now I\u2019ll be able to shake that and move on, which I sorely need to do (and I\u2019ve already eaten half the clearance Easter bunny, and would probably have eaten a pint of ice cream if I had one).<\/p>\n For non-Illinoisans, it goes like this.<\/p>\n The state is divided into four regions \u2014 and already people in the greater Chicago area are pissed that they must meet the Chicago criteria regarding new cases, etc.\u00a0 I guess this part I\u2019m not as pissed about, because I\u2019m mostly resigned to this.<\/p>\n There are five \u201cphases\u201d including a retconning that deems us already in \u201cPhase 2\u201d based on some tweaks to the shut-down that the governor declared effective May 1st.<\/p>\n Each phase lasts a minimum of 28 days, with the clock starting May 1st.<\/p>\n Some of the criteria sound fine enough:\u00a0 metrics around test positivity rate, hospitalizations, ICU capacity, etc.<\/p>\n But the details are deeply dismaying.<\/p>\n To get to the next phase, in which business and manufacturing are permitted to open with restrictions, retailers with capacity limits, and healthcare providers may re-open \u2014 but in which restaurants are still shuttered and child care and summer programs are permitted on an unspecified \u201climited\u201d basis, among other continuing restrictions, and no gathering of people may exceed 10, the state must have implemented a contact tracing system<\/strong> in which contact tracers begin the process within 24 hours of diagnosis.<\/p>\n And to get to \u201cPhase 4,\u201d in which schools and restaurants are re-opened, but restaurants, theaters, retail, etc. have capacity limits and all gatherings are restricted to 50 or fewer people, contact tracing must be fully (90%) implemented.<\/p>\n To get to \u201cPhase 5,\u201d the ending of the 50-person limit and other capacity restrictions requires a vaccine, a \u201chighly effective treatment\u201d (the governor\u2019s statements make this clear that this is not simply reductions in complications but a complete game-changer of a treatment), or the elimination of the virus through herd immunity or other means.<\/p>\n So allow me to fume in an organized way.<\/p>\n In the first place, the Phase 5 plan makes no sense at all.\u00a0 Yes, we might all hope that scientists do find a vaccine or a treatment.\u00a0 But we can\u2019t build a plan that imposes such incredibly-tight restrictions until that happens \u2014 and, let\u2019s face it, it\u2019s possible that that may never occur, or could be years away.\u00a0 We simply can\u2019t operate in this manner for this long.<\/p>\n And\u00a0(per <\/span>his comments at today\u2019s briefing<\/a>) nursing homes (and presumably assisted living communities) appear to remain on lockdown until Phase 5, again, possibly years away.\u00a0 It simply isn\u2019t viable to say that for months and months and months on end, the elderly may not have any human contact besides the staff at their facility.\u00a0 This may keep them alive, but will be a terrible blow to their overall well-being.<\/span><\/p>\n And contact tracing is great \u2014 I\u2019m squeamish about apps that involve Apple or Google reporting on where I am, and I am unclear about how far it\u2019ll go (would it require quarantine if I\u2019d merely been in the same grocery store as a newly-diagnosed person?\u00a0 Yikes!, if so), but the principle is fine.\u00a0 Yet how long would it take to implement<\/strong>?\u00a0 Reports are \u201cby late May\u201d \u2014 but a local community college\u2019s course of study starts<\/strong> on May 29<\/a>, and is designed to be completed in three weeks.\u00a0 Will the state outsource this, such as Maryland is doing<\/a> (through NORC, with only a week of training)?\u00a0 Or will this be run directly by the state?\u00a0 The cynic in me says the state will require union hires with a dozen different roadblocks (diversity & inclusion checkboxes, union work rules, etc.) so that even beginning the program will be an ordeal, let alone scaling to 90% of cases, so that regions which have met the other benchmarks will be trapped in \u201cPhase 2\u201d and, subsequently, \u201cPhase 3,\u201d for week after week, month after month.\u00a0 And a drive for \u201cinclusiveness\u201d could mean rural areas are held hostage to efforts to roll out contact tracing in Chicago.<\/p>\n In the meantime, businesses will invariably go out of business \u2014 but Pritzker (again, per his comments at today\u2019s briefing<\/a>) simply shrugs this off. Asked to respond to concerns about \u201cmass permanent closures,\u201d he simply passes the buck, to \u201cdoctors and epidemiologists that I\u2019m listening to.\u201d\u00a0 Of course those doctors and epidemiologists can tell him about the safest course to maximize public health with respect to the virus, but it\u2019s irresponsible to ignore the long-term consequences of shuttering so many businesses which simply will not re-open.<\/p>\n And there are so many unanswered questions, and pieces that make no sense.<\/p>\n When will the Secretary of State open to license new drivers?\u00a0 How long will teens otherwise ready to drive to jobs have to cool their heels?<\/p>\n What sort of conditions will be placed on child care and summer programs?\u00a0 Limits to \u201cessential\u201d workers?\u00a0 Limits on capacity?<\/p>\n How on earth can schools operate in the fall when held to 50-person maximums?\u00a0 Pritzker\u2019s answer to this question yesterday was a garbage word salad of no help.<\/p>\n And at what point will Pritzker seek legislative authorization for his decrees, rather than ruling via one 30-day emergency decree after another?\u00a0 When asked about that today, he produced another word salad.\u00a0 I am definitely persuaded that these are illegal (see, for instance, Wirepoints<\/a>), since the Illinois constitution sets the limit at 30 days and it is patently nonsense to justify 60, 90, 120, etc. days as merely multiples of 30 days; and the only reason I am not more outraged is that the legislature would presumably, if forced to, approve Pritzker\u2019s decrees, but simply doesn\u2019t want to be put in the position of having a vote on record.<\/p>\n Now, again, Pritzker really seems to have it firmly lodged in his head that in a realistically-small number of months we\u2019ll have a widespread treatment which will enable people to, not only survive and stay out of the ICU, but even avoid the hospital or, indeed, any ill effects of COVID-19 at all.<\/p>\n