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So I\u2019m working my way through Amity Shlaes\u2019 The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression<\/em>, which is admittedly over a decade old now (published in 2007).\u00a0 A bit of a summary as well as its reception at the time is available at Wikipedia<\/a>:\u00a0 her key argument is that not only was Hoover inept in how he reacted to the emerging depression (especially in implementing the Smoot-Hawley Tariff) but that FDR also, by his actions prolonged the Depression.\u00a0 His delight in \u201cexperimentation\u201d meant that businesses worried about uncertainty and that climate of uncertainty prevented recovery.<\/p>\n The argument does make a certain amount of sense \u2014 after all, our history books give two contradictory messages:\u00a0 \u201cFDR saved us from the Depression\u201d and \u201conly the war ended the Depression.\u201d\u00a0 When we talk about stimulus programs now, they\u2019re not meant merely to keep people adequately fed and housed until some external event ends the economic downturn; they are, we\u2019re told, meant to boost the economy into recovery, so it seems to me worthwhile to question the conventional wisdom that New New Deals will save the day.<\/p>\n But I\u2019m not an expert on the subject.\u00a0 So let\u2019s start with Wikipedia\u2019s general characterization<\/a> of Depressions globally, since one of Shlaes\u2019 first claims is that the decade-long downturn was not somehow \u201cnatural\u201d or inevitable as evidenced by the fact that in other countries recovery was much faster.<\/p>\n In general, the Depression was a worldwide event, and the years up to 1932 \u2013 1933 saw extreme hardship globally.\u00a0 The question is what happened next.<\/p>\n Australia:\u00a0 unemployment was high in 1932, but with a gradual recovery therafter.\u00a0 \u201cUnemployment, which peaked at 32% in 1932, was 11% at the start of the Second World War compared to 17.2% in the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n Canada:\u00a0 \u201cThe Canadian recovery from the Great Depression proceeded slowly. Economists Pedro Amaral and James MacGee find that the Canadian recovery has important differences with the United States. In the U.S. productivity recovered quickly while the labour force remained depressed throughout the decade. In Canada employment quickly recovered but productivity remained well below trend. Amaral and MacGee suggest that this decline is due to the sustained reduction in international trade during the 1930s.\u201d<\/p>\n France:\u00a0 \u201cThe Great Depression in France started in about 1931 and lasted through the remainder of the decade. The crisis started in France a bit later than other countries. The 1920s economy had grown at the very strong rate of 4.43% per year, the 1930s rate fell to only 0.63%. The depression was relatively mild compared to other countries since unemployment peaked under 5%, the fall in production was at most 20% below the 1929 output and there was no banking crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n Germany:\u00a0 \u201cBy cutting wages and taking control of labor unions, plus public works spending, unemployment fell significantly by 1935.\u201d<\/p>\n Greece:\u00a0 \u201cDespite the global depression, Greece managed to suffer comparatively little, averaging an average growth rate of 3.5% from 1932 to 1939. The dictatorial regime of Ioannis Metaxas took over the Greek government in 1936, and economic growth was strong in the years leading up to the Second World War.\u201d<\/p>\n Iceland:\u00a0 \u201cDue to the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War, which cut Iceland\u2019s exports of saltfish by half, the Depression lasted in Iceland until the outbreak of World War II (when prices for fish exports soared).\u201d<\/p>\n Italy:\u00a0 Mussolini came to power well before Hitler \u2014 in 1922.\u00a0 No reports of any effects on unemployment, only a financial crisis in 1932 and subsequent government intervention.<\/p>\n Japan:\u00a0 \u201cthe Great Depression did not strongly affect Japan.\u201d\u00a0 Currency devaluation plus deficit spending.\u00a0 \u201cBy 1933, Japan was already out of the depression.\u201d<\/p>\n Netherlands:\u00a0 prolonged depression, from 1931 to 1937.\u00a0 As of 1933, UK, US, and most European countries had abandoned the gold standard; in 1936, France and NL left the gold standard, boosting its economy.<\/p>\n Sweden:\u00a0 \u201cthe first country worldwide to recover completely from the Great Depression.\u201d<\/p>\n UK:\u00a0 left the gold standard in 1931 after a financial crisis and \u201csuffered relatively less than other major countries in the Great Depression.\u201d<\/p>\n And here\u2019s a chart from the French Wikipedia article, which shows the evolution of GDP in various countries:<\/p>\n For the legend: E \u2013 U = Etas Unis, US<\/p>\n FRA = France<\/p>\n ITA = Italy<\/p>\n Jap = Japan<\/p>\n R \u2013 U = United Kingdom<\/p>\n URSS = USSR<\/p>\n And PIB = GDP.<\/p>\n That the USSR grew steadly is a bit of a surprise given the manufactured famine, the Holodomor, and Stalin\u2019s purges, but of course, this is relative to 1929, when that country was doing even worse.<\/p>\n Germany\u2019s drop by 1932 was almost as bad as the US, but the recovery under Hitler was surprisingly rapid (and, yes, I\u2019ve periodically wanted to read about that, from an economy history point of view).<\/p>\n France\u2019s downturn was not as steep as the US but it likewise bumbled around for the remainder of the decade.<\/p>\n And the UK, as the other democracy on this chart (maybe Japan counts too, in terms of the way its economy operated at the time?), was effected substantially less grew more than the US.<\/p>\n But, of course, this is just one chart, and shows GDP rather than unemployment rate. \u00a0 A chart specifically for the UK reports<\/a> that the unemployment rate was in the neighborhood of 8% \u2013 10% during the 1920s, climbed to a peak of about 15% in 1932, then steadily declined to 12% in 1934, and 8% in 1937.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/533\/2020\/07\/PIB_1929-1939.gif\")
\nALL = Allemagne, Germany<\/p>\n