{"id":2768,"date":"2015-09-15T09:11:35","date_gmt":"2015-09-15T15:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?p=2768"},"modified":"2015-09-15T09:48:29","modified_gmt":"2015-09-15T15:48:29","slug":"dear-mutti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html","title":{"rendered":"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Dear Mutti<\/a>,<\/p>\n

From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone seems to just be muddling through, with no end in sight, except to the extent that Hungary saves the day by blocking refugee\/migrants from entering the EU in the first place.<\/p>\n

What is the end result you want to achieve? \u00a0Working backwards, what do you need to do to achieve that end result?<\/p>\n

Obama\u2019s end result? \u00a0Not really a model to follow \u2014 he pulled US forces out of\u00a0\u00a0Iraq after a half-assed effort to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement, then boasted that he had kept his campaign promise. \u00a0Frankly, his goals are all about him, and his Post-Presidency, whether it\u2019s golfing, or being in high demand as a speech-giver, or being the recipient of adulation at his museum.<\/p>\n

What is your end result?<\/p>\n

Your government expects 800,000 asylum-seekers to arrive in Germany during 2015. \u00a0Maybe the number\u2019s grown even higher by now. \u00a0Maybe half are Syrian, or claim to be (potentially using false documents<\/a>). \u00a0Your ability to screen claimants to assess the legitimacy of their claims is severely strained, and it\u2019s not at all clear to me whether you have the ability to actually remove the ineligibles from Germany.<\/p>\n

And, with respect to the Syrians, the arrivals are only a small fraction of the total who have fled Syria. \u00a0The vast majority of refugees are in refugee camps, with nearly 2 million in Turkey, 1 million in Lebanon, 600,000 in Jordan, 250,000 in Iraq, and 130,000 in Egypt \u00a0\u2014 here\u2019s a map with some statistics from the UN<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Do you expect the Syrians to one day be repatriated back to Syria? \u00a0There\u2019s precedent, as the vast majority of Afghan refugees were repatriated<\/a> in the decade after the Taliban were removed from power, though many remain in refugee camps in Pakistan and Iran. \u00a0On the other hand, recent history also serves up the example of the refugees from Indochina<\/a>, nearly all of whom were resettled, over 2.5 million from 1975 to 1997, half arriving in the U.S., and 1% in Germany.<\/p>\n

But if you want to ultimately repatriate, you can\u2019t half-ass the job of dislodging ISIS and restoring peace. \u00a0Now, from my metaphorical armchair, I don\u2019t have a heck of a lot of insight into the actual ongoing military operations. \u00a0A google search \u2014\u00a0coalition against isis countries list \u2014 revealed squat, or rather, outdated information\u00a0from Fall 2014, in the first page of hits. \u00a0There are reports that the US is refusing to strike at training bases, e.g., this article from the Washington Free Beacon<\/a>, with the rationale that they want to avoid collateral damage, which doesn\u2019t seem credible. \u00a0And where is Germany? \u00a0If you want to solve the crisis, you can\u2019t be a bystander in this.<\/p>\n

And, yes, I know, Putin isn\u2019t making it any easier, lending support to Assad. \u00a0The notion that the West can both dislodge Assad and ISIS both, and replace the whole thing with a kum ba yah-singing liberal democracy\u2019s not particularly realistic; at this point, perhaps the best we can hope for is for Assad to agree to a power-sharing agreement.<\/p>\n

But in the interim, the refugee camps along Syria\u2019s borders need a lot more in the way of funding. \u00a0Reports are that you\u2019re planning on spending $6.6 billion<\/a> on these new arrivals in Germany. \u00a0Surely this money would go a lot further if spent on the camps overseas. \u00a0 Heck, what if you \u201crepatriated\u201d refugees to overseas refugee camps, perhaps in the employee of the organizations running the camps? \u00a0(Oh, I know, it can\u2019t be done based on existing norms, but still . . .)<\/p>\n

With respect to Syrians in Germany: \u00a0here\u2019s what bugs me. \u00a0Young Jewish men who left Germany for America as refugees in the 1930s (yes, the US could have accepted many more, but there were some), returned with Allied troops, playing a valuable role as translators as the Allies began to take German territory. \u00a0In principle,\u00a0the Syrians arriving in Germany and the EU generally, nearly all young men, ought to play that role, and be integrated into combat forces. \u00a0 Why aren\u2019t they? \u00a0Why aren\u2019t they pleading for the chance to fight back, and to rescue their mothers and sisters (unless they\u2019re all safe in refugee camps)? \u00a0The Kurds are, from all reports. \u00a0Yes, I know you can\u2019t just single out refugees for conscription, but unwillingness to fight would certainly signal that they may well not be legitimate refugees.<\/p>\n

And also with respect the Syrians in Germany \u2014 you\u2019ve announced that you have firm intentions of doing a heck of a lot better job integrating these people into German society than you all did with the Turks in the past. \u00a0Those are nice words, and good intentions, but very hard to actually put into practice, at least, not unless you\u2019re a lot choosier about who you let stay. \u00a0Let the Christians (who have really no chance of returning without persecution in any case) stay, and let the formerly-middle class, educated families stay, sure \u2014 those for whom the headscarf had long ago been abandoned, where the women were educated and employed, where Islam was practiced with as much indifference as most Germans practice Christianity. \u00a0But it\u2019s wishful thinking to imagine that a villager who expects his wife to be subservient and covered can be \u201cconverted\u201d into having Western cultural attitudes and properly integrate into Germany. \u00a0People are not fungible. \u00a0You can\u2019t simply drop them in Germany and create Good Germans out of them at the drop of a hat. \u00a0I know you\u2019ve got that pesky matter of a populace that refuses to reproduce itself, but if you transform Germany into the Mideast culturally, you\u2019re destroying your country\u2019s future, just to reach a goal of keeping 80 million people resident there.<\/p>\n

Oh, and please get this sorted out by next summer, would\u2019ja? \u00a0We\u2019ve got tickets to Munich for our summer vacation.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone seems to just be muddling through, with no end in sight, except to the extent that Hungary saves the day by blocking refugee\/migrants from entering the EU in the first place. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nDear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-09-15T15:11:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-09-15T15:48:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html\",\"name\":\"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-09-15T15:11:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-09-15T15:48:29+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\"},\"description\":\"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jane the Actuary\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)","description":"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)","og_description":"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html","og_site_name":"Jane the Actuary","article_published_time":"2015-09-15T15:11:35+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-09-15T15:48:29+00:00","author":"Jane the Actuary","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jane the Actuary","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html","name":"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website"},"datePublished":"2015-09-15T15:11:35+00:00","dateModified":"2015-09-15T15:48:29+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a"},"description":"Dear Mutti, From all appearances, neither you nor your top advisors, have any clue about how to handle the massive inflow of asylum-seekers. \u00a0Everyone","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2015\/09\/dear-mutti.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Dear Mutti (a wishful-thinking letter)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/","name":"Jane the Actuary","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a","name":"Jane the Actuary","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jane the Actuary"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2768\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}