{"id":289,"date":"2014-09-08T08:47:00","date_gmt":"2014-09-08T14:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/09\/a-new-cdc-report-crying-wolf.html"},"modified":"2015-03-01T22:20:16","modified_gmt":"2015-03-02T04:20:16","slug":"a-new-cdc-report-crying-wolf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/09\/a-new-cdc-report-crying-wolf.html","title":{"rendered":"A new CDC report: crying wolf?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

After reading through the CDC report<\/a> that\u2019s the source of the \u201c1 in 5 college women are sexually assaulted\u201d figure over the weekend, this morning, the Tribune had a brief article about a new CDC report. \u00a0Looking online, I found this, from the Washington Post: \u00a0\u201cCDC: Nearly 1 in 5 women have been raped<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Having learned that the true figure from the report was more like \u201c1.5% \u00a0of women at large universities report being raped in a study of college women,\u201d I was immediately suspicious of this new, and magically identical 1 in 5 figure.<\/p>\n

This new figure comes from the National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey, which is, apparently, run by the CDC itself, and the data is from 2011 (it took 3 years to process it?). \u00a0Of the survey, the Post says, \u201cThe survey took place over cellphones and landlines, with more than 12,000 completed interviews,\u201d but this reflects a response rate of only 33%.<\/p>\n

The Post provides a link to the CDC<\/a>, which provides the results, including tables, and the survey questions themselves.<\/p>\n

Here are the key results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nWomen<\/td>\nMen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rape<\/b><\/td>\n19.3<\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Completed forced penetration<\/td>\n11.5<\/td>\n0.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Attempted forced penetration<\/td>\n6.4<\/td>\n*<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Completed alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration<\/td>\n9.3<\/td>\n1.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Other sexual violence<\/b><\/td>\n43.9<\/td>\n23.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Made to penetrate<\/td>\n0.6<\/td>\n6.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sexual coercion<\/td>\n12.5<\/td>\n5.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Unwanted sexual contact<\/td>\n27.3<\/td>\n10.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Noncontact unwanted sexual experiences<\/td>\n32.1<\/td>\n13.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

* Too small to be statistically significant.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Note that the \u201cmale rape\u201d figure is understated because being \u201cmade to penetrate\u201d (the logistics of which escape me for women) is not counted as rape, when I\u2019d expect that most people would label it exactly that way. \n

\u201cSexual coercion\u201d seems to be the category covered by the question asking whether you\u2019ve had sex because your partner was \u201cdoing things like telling you lies, making promises about the future they knew were untrue, threatening to end your relationship, or threatening to spread rumors about you\u201d or by \u201cwearing you down by repeatedly asking for sex, or showing they were unhappy.\u201d \u00a0\u201cUnwanted sexual contact\u201d ranges from forced sexual kissing to unwanted fondling or forcibly making \u201cyou show your sexual body parts.\u201d \u00a0And \u201cnoncontact unwanted sexual experiences\u201d means things like a man exposing himself or the like. \u00a0<\/p><\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
As with the college women\u2019s survey, they include \u201calcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration\u201d as rape, and the question is ambiguous and lends itself to any interpretation from \u201cI was so drunk as to be utterly helpless\u201d to \u201che should have known better than to have sex with me.\u201d \u00a0<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The figures here are consistent with the college-rape figure in one respect, though:\n

Among female victims of completed rape (completed forced penetration and completed alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration), this form of sexual violence was first experienced by an estimated 78.7% before age 25 years, by an estimated 40.4% before age 18 years (28.3% at ages 11\u201317 years and 12.1% at age \u226410 years), and by an estimated 38.3% at age 18\u201324 years. In addition, among female victims of completed rape, an estimated 15.2% first experienced this at age 25\u201334 years, an estimated 4.6% at age 35\u201344 years, and an estimated 1.5% at age \u226545 years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

Considering that the study that produced the \u201c1 in 5\u201d figure also produced a (not talked about) \u201c1 in 6\u201d figure \u2014 that is, that nearly as many women reported sexual assault before entering college, of a group of mostly traditional college students \u2014 this indicates that the issue isn\u2019t college itself, but the risks faced by girls and young women.\n

However, while the report breaks down rape by age (and ethnic group), it doesn\u2019t say anything about the distribution of survey participants by age, or of responses. \u00a0One can easily imagine that older women are much less likely to be willing to talk to a surveyer about such topics \u2014 or, on the other hand, that a traditional phone call-based poll would, in general, capture fewer responses from young people. \u00a0To the extent that responses are coming from 60-year olds discussing a rape when they were 20, it says nothing about the current situation. \u00a0To the extent that responses are coming from 20 year olds, it says nothing about the risks of older women right here, right now.<\/p>\n

Oh, and that response rate, in general, is enough to take these statistics with a huge grain of salt, as women who have been victimized are far more likely to respond than those who haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: \u00a0I could make a career out of criticizing reports, if someone would pay me. \u00a0But in the meantime, reports such as this, with dramatic headline numbers, but, ultimately, a lack of more meaningful conclusions, could do more harm than good.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After reading through the CDC report that\u2019s the source of the \u201c1 in 5 college women are sexually assaulted\u201d figure over the weekend, this morning, the Tribune had a brief article about a new CDC report. \u00a0Looking online, I found this, from the Washington Post: \u00a0\u201cCDC: Nearly 1 in 5 women have been raped.\u201d Having […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[117],"class_list":["post-289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-sexual-assault"],"yoast_head":"\nA new CDC report: crying wolf?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After reading through the CDC report that's the source of the "1 in 5 college women are sexually assaulted" figure over the weekend, this morning, the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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