{"id":330,"date":"2014-08-09T21:54:00","date_gmt":"2014-08-10T03:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/08\/are-americans-retirement-plans-doomed-or-is-this-survey-a-bunch-of-baloney.html"},"modified":"2016-08-16T09:46:33","modified_gmt":"2016-08-16T15:46:33","slug":"are-americans-retirement-plans-doomed-or-is-this-survey-a-bunch-of-baloney","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/08\/are-americans-retirement-plans-doomed-or-is-this-survey-a-bunch-of-baloney.html","title":{"rendered":"Are Americans&#8217; retirement plans doomed, or is this survey a bunch of baloney?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p>This is where Twitter works reasonably well: \u00a0Virginia Postrel linked to a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/wonkblog\/wp\/2014\/08\/07\/almost-20-percent-of-people-near-retirement-age-have-no-retirement-savings\/?utm_content=buffere4831&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"> blog post <\/a>in the Washington Post, titled \u201cAlmost 20 percent of people near retirement age have no retirement savings,\u201d I followed the link, which itself linked to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econresdata\/2013-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201407.pdf\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">study done by the Federal Reserve<\/a>, \u201cReport on the Economic Well-Being<br>of U.S. Households in 2013,\u201d so now I have something interesting to write about. \u00a0Postrel also asks whether the doom-and-gloom results are really any different than in the past, which is also a topic I ought to know something about, and combines my two favorite sorts of topics: \u00a0looking at numbers and at history.<\/p>\n<p>But, as I looked at this report, some of the results also just did not make a lot of sense.<\/p>\n<p>So here we go:<\/p>\n<p>This report consists not of analysis of data but of a survey commissioned by the Federal Reserve Board. \u00a0This is an entirely new survey, so there isn\u2019t any directly comparable historical data to reference. \u00a0The data was collected by sending out e-mails to a randomly selected group of individuals from \u201cKnowledgePanel\u201d \u2014 which claims to be a top-notch way of randomly selecting individuals. \u00a0(Digging a bit, it seems that this is a market research company that pays prospective survey-takers on a per-survey basis, and offers other prizes and bonus points; an article <a href=\"http:\/\/thespecter.net\/blog\/technology\/gfk-knowledgepanel-is-a-scam\/\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">here<\/a> claims that they\u2019re a \u201cscam\u201d based on the fact that his experience was that over time they sent increasingly long surveys for the same per-survey payment, and that one of the prizes is a spin on the \u201cprize wheel,\u201d which the blogger says is a fixed never-win game.) \u00a0In this case, participants were paid $10 for the completed survey, and the survey had about a 60% return rate, with 4,134 completed surveys. \u00a0The responses were also adjusted to correct for non-representativeness of respondents.<\/p>\n<p>And maybe this method of conducting the survey explains some of the results.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with the headline figure: \u00a020% of Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 have no retirement savings. \u00a0The odd thing is that this is a figure from the executive summary but it doesn\u2019t appear in the actual report, which splits the data into 45 \u2013 59 and 60+. \u00a0But that figure makes no sense in any case. \u00a0The question was, \u201cWhat type(s) of retirement savings or pension do you (or your spouse\/partner) have?\u201d and the answers\/answer choices were:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 18\u201329 \u00a0 \u00a030\u201344 \u00a0 \u00a0 45\u201359 \u00a0 \u00a0 60+ \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Overall<br>No retirement savings or pension \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 50.5 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 27.8 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a023.0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 15.4 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a030.9<br>Social Security Old-Age benefits \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 17.5 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 31.5 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 46.4 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a067.6 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a036.3<br>401(k), 403(b), thrift or other defined contribution pension plan through an employer<br>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 30.3 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 52.8 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 47.9 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a037.1 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a043.7<br>Defined benefit pension through an employer (i.e., pension based on a formula, your earnings, and years of service)<br>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 7.0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 16.0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 27.0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a025.9 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 18.2<br>Individual Retirement Account (IRA) \u00a0 11.2 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a023.5 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 29.2 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a031.9 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 23.0<br>Savings outside a retirement account (e.g., a brokerage account, savings account)<br>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a015.4 \u00a0 \u00a0 19.3 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 28.6 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a033.3 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a022.7<br>Real estate or land \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 4.4 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 8.9 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 16.2 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a020.5 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a011.3<br>Other \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01.7 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 3.4 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 4.1 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04.1 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a03.2<br>Total number of respondents 3,163<\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>(Sorry for the lousy formatting.)<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>So the first thing that stands out is that nearly everyone ought to have Social Security benefits \u2014 only a very small number of people aren\u2019t eligible either on their own earnings record or a spouse\u2019s earnings record. \u00a0(I thought at first that they might be correcting to include illegal immigrants, but that seems unlikely.) \u00a0Does the fact that 2\/3s of the oldest group said they have Social Security benefits but only 17.5% of the youngest said so, mean that the youngest group doesn\u2019t believe Social Security will be around? \u00a0I\u2019d say that the existence of Social Security as a type of retirement benefit didn\u2019t occur to them, but it was an answer choice, with the instruction to select as many as were applicable. \u00a0In any case, the invalidity of the Social Security answers makes the \u201cno savings\/pension\u201d responses invalid.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>What we\u2019re left with are very odd responses for the other items as well. \u00a0It\u2019s true that in my work, I deal with medium-sized to large employers (or maybe large to very large, depending on the label), but the 25.9% for older employers and 7.0% for the youngest both seem very small, even when recognizing people with part-time and erratic work histories. \u00a0At their heyday, DB pensions were the norm; as recently as 2 decades ago, 80% of the medium to large employers who are the clients at my firm provided them, and, though that figure has shrunk to maybe 25%, older workers were generally grandfathered (that is, continuing to accrue benefits), or, if not, by law their existing accruals were protected. \u00a0Even now, public sector workers (except, if I\u2019m not mistaken, certain federal government workers) continue to receive pensions, and they\u2019re a significant portion of the overall workforce. \u00a0Besides which, the question asks whether the respondent or his\/her spouse\/partner has such a benefit which ought to increase the affirmative responses significantly compared to just asking about the respondent.<\/div>\n<div>Also note that not everyone responded. \u00a0Was this just that people were allowed to send in half-completed surveys, and this came late enough in the survey that people got tired of the questions? \u00a0Or were the no-answers really additional \u201cno savings\u201d responses?\n<p>(That being said, I do, of course, believe there are serious issues with Americans\u2019 preparedness for retirement; last fall, when everyone was talking about public pensions as the \u201cother pension crisis,\u201d I called this issue the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2013\/09\/the-other-other-pension-crisis.html\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\">other other pension crisis.<\/a>\u201c)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>So that\u2019s the retirement section.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>There\u2019s one other piece to the study that looks odd, and I\u2019ll just address it briefly here: \u00a0the question of other savings.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>One question asked, \u201cHave you set aside emergency or rainy day funds that would cover your expenses for 3 months?\u201d and about 40% of respondents said that, yes, they had \u2014 about 1\/3 of all age groups except the 60+ group, who answered \u201cyes\u201d at a rate of 56%. \u00a0<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Another question asked, \u201cSuppose that you have an emergency expense that costs $400. Based on your current financial situation how would you pay for this expense?\u201d \u00a0Only 38.6% of respondents said that they had enough cash to pay for this expense immediately, which would mean that, taking these two answers together, 40% of the population has a 3 month rainy day fund, and the remainder have squat \u2014 which doesn\u2019t seem right. \u00a0Does the answer lie in another choice to that survey question: \u00a0\u201cPut it on my credit card and pay it off in full at the next statement,\u201d which 27.7% selected? \u00a0\u2014 or, since multiple answers were allowed, was this selected in part by a subset of the 38.6%? \u00a0Was this short-term loan option strategic and practical, a reflection of practices of charging everything for convenience anyway? \u00a0Other response options were taking a loan, borrowing from friend\/family, getting a payday loan, selling something, or just not paying for the expense at all. \u00a0<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>So the bottom line is this: \u00a0I\u2019m disappointed in this report. \u00a0I haven\u2019t really learned anything and, despite assurances that this is top-of-the-line market research, I\u2019m doubtful.<\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is where Twitter works reasonably well: \u00a0Virginia Postrel linked to a blog post in the Washington Post, titled \u201cAlmost 20 percent of people near retirement age have no retirement savings,\u201d I followed the link, which itself linked to the study done by the Federal Reserve, \u201cReport on the Economic Well-Beingof U.S. Households in 2013,\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[450],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actuarial"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are Americans&#039; 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