{"id":372,"date":"2014-07-16T09:59:00","date_gmt":"2014-07-16T09:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/07\/what-happens-when-there-are-no-grown-ups-in-the-room-more-on-gaza.html"},"modified":"2014-07-16T09:59:00","modified_gmt":"2014-07-16T09:59:00","slug":"what-happens-when-there-are-no-grown-ups-in-the-room-more-on-gaza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/07\/what-happens-when-there-are-no-grown-ups-in-the-room-more-on-gaza.html","title":{"rendered":"What happens when there are no “grown-ups in the room” — more on Gaza"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Here\u2019s a comment I made on a marginalrevolution.com post<\/a> yesterday, about Israel\u2019s actions in Gaza, in reply to a comment saying, in effect, that \u201ceven Egypt doesn\u2019t want to take over Gaza because it\u2019s so dysfunctional\u201d:<\/p>\n

I\u2019m increasingly inclined to think that that\u2019s the only solution, at least so long as the military is effectively in control of Egypt, not the Muslim Brotherhood. Gaza is so dysfunctional that they need adult supervision (almost literally \u2014 they have such a high TFR\/population growth rate that their median age is 18, even worse than Egypt\u2019s 25 years, according to the CIA World Factbook<\/a> \u2014 and nearly 2\/3rds are under age 25), and the Egyptians are the only passable option.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And here\u2019s a small snippet of our family life: \u00a0my husband was rear-ended over the weekend, and yesterday morning we were at the Enterprise car rental counter, a small branch, right in town, and it struck me that every one of the four employees there at the time was young, very young. \u00a0At least they looked pretty young to me \u2014 maybe that\u2019s just my getting old. <\/p>\n

And I thought \u2014 can a country with such a substantial growth rate, and such a low median age, have any hope of being civilized and functional, economically and politically? \u00a0We often speak metaphorically of \u201cthe grown-ups in the room\u201d \u2014 but what if there are simply, proportionately, very few grown-ups in the country? \u00a0What if every business is like that Enterprise car rental?<\/p>\n

Maybe, for the most part, it\u2019s not a big deal. \u00a0Maybe 20-somethings are fully capable, not just of running a car rental branch, or, for that matter, a Silicon Valley startup, but a country. \u00a0And demographers do speak of the \u201cdemographic dividend\u201d \u2014 a \u201cbaby boom\u201d type scenario in which a rapid transition from high to low fertility rates creates a bulge of young people but, at the same time, a declining number of children to be cared for \u2014 but that\u2019s not the case here because Gaza still \u00a0has a persistently high fertility rate\/population growth rate. <\/p>\n

Some rates and ranks: <\/p>\n

Gaza has a TFR of 4.24, which puts them at 34th in the world, a population growth rate of 2.91% (13th in the world), 63.8% of the population under age 25, and a median age of 18. <\/p>\n

The West Bank has a much lower TFR, 2.83, ranking 66th, a population growth rate of 1.99% (52nd), 55.4% of the population under age 25, and a median age of 22.4. \u00a0(These numbers seem to include the Israeli settlers, who now comprise 17% of the population of the territory.) <\/p>\n

Israel itself: \u00a02.62 TFR (75th), population growth rate of 1.46% per year, 42.8% of the population under age 25, median age of 29.9.<\/p>\n

Egypt: \u00a0TFR 2.87, population growth rate of 1.84%, 49.9% of population under age 25, median age 25.1.<\/p>\n

Jordan: \u00a0TFR of 3.16, growth rate of 3.86% (which seems to be driven by a high migration rate \u2014 perhaps this is simply reflecting refugees from Syria?), 56.2% under age 25, median age 21.8.<\/p>\n

And, for comparison, the U.S.: \u00a0TFR 2.01 (this is higher than the stats I read the other day<\/a> from the World Bank, and I don\u2019t know if the year or the methodology differs), growth rate of 0.77% (including the effects of immigration), 33.1% under age 25, median age 37.6 years.<\/p>\n

So what do you make of these numbers?<\/p>\n

The first thing that\u2019s clear is that, while all these Middle Eastern countries have high growth rates\/fertility, Gaza is an outlier among them, and it\u2019s not clear to me why that should be. \u00a0I don\u2019t think it\u2019s likely that Gazan women lack contraception to a greater degree than elsewhere, knowing that the UN and other NGO\u2019s pump aid of all kinds into the territory. <\/p>\n

Is this an indicator of a difference in culture between Gaza and the West Bank? \u00a0I couldn\u2019t really find anything online about this. <\/p>\n

But in any case, these numbers make the prospects for peace all the more unlikely. \u00a0There\u2019s a big difference between running an Enterprise branch and bringing peace, stability, and prosperity to a chaotic country.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s a comment I made on a marginalrevolution.com post yesterday, about Israel\u2019s actions in Gaza, in reply to a comment saying, in effect, that \u201ceven Egypt doesn\u2019t want to take over Gaza because it\u2019s so dysfunctional\u201d: I\u2019m increasingly inclined to think that that\u2019s the only solution, at least so long as the military is effectively […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat happens when there are no "grown-ups in the room" -- more on Gaza<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here's a comment I made on a marginalrevolution.com post yesterday, about Israel's actions in Gaza, in reply to a comment saying, in effect, that "even\" \/>\n<meta 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