If you read the news <\/a>this morning, you know the outcome: \u00a0Clinton and Sanders are effectively tied in Iowa, and the vote was split more evenly than expected among the Republicans, with Cruz, Trump, and Rubio on top with 28%, 24%, and 23% respectively. \u00a0(I find it hard to say \u201cCruz won\u201d when he took barely more than a quarter of the vote, so I won\u2019t \u2014 though, to be sure, he got a greater share of the vote than, for instance, the Republican primary winner in the 2010 Illinois GOP governor\u2019s race<\/a>, Bill Brady, who took 20.26% because the field was large and evenly split.)<\/p>\n [ADDED:<\/p>\n Did Rubio \u201cwin\u201d the Iowa caucus? \u00a0Did Clinton \u201cwin\u201d for the Democrats? \u00a0No, and no. \u00a0The more I read, the more I\u2019m convinced that the terminology of \u201cwinning the caucus\u201d makes no sense when there is nothing that\u2019s won<\/em>. \u00a0Cruz got a somewhat larger number of delegates than his competitors. \u00a0Sanders and Clinton got virtually the same number. \u00a0Each candidate hopes to gain more media coverage and more donors as a result of their results, and hopes to persuade New Hampshire and South Carolina voters that their finishes in Iowa mean that they\u2019re viable, credible, strong candidates \u2014 or, in the case of the Republicans, that those who finished in lower places are undeserving of the voters\u2019 support as non-viable candidates.<\/p>\n But to yammer on about who won is meaningless.<\/strong> \u00a0It\u2019s like talking about who \u201cwon\u201d the fist inning of a baseball game, or the first quarter of a football game, or the first period of a hockey game.]<\/p>\n Three comments:<\/p>\n First<\/strong>, on the Democratic side, I share in both the Republicans\u2019 glee that Sanders is doing well, since, after all, in the event, however unlikely, that he\u2019s the nominee, the Republican candidate should be able to easily skate to victory, and also the dismay of many who recognize that, in the end, it is a Bad Thing for so many Americans to take Sanders\u2019 pledge of unlimited Free Stuff paid for by billionaires as a realistic public policy. \u00a0It\u2019s the same impulse as that which is leading to more calls\u00a0for a \u201cminimum income\u201d, in a fantasy world in which the federal government has enough cash to give living allowances to every man, woman, and child.<\/p>\n At the same time, well, a Sanders victory would solve the issue of Clinton\u2019s private server a lot more tidily than otherwise may be the case. \u00a0At this point, there seems to be a genuine likelihood that (1) Clinton, through her use of her private server, put national security at risk, (2) that various rationalizations\u00a0that information that was labelled \u201cclassified\u201d really wasn\u2019t in any practical sense of the term, are increasingly difficult to claim, (3) that the Department of Justice will simply choose to close the case without taking further action, and (4) that the resulting repercussions, of Clinton being declared to effectively have immunity, will do grave damage to our political system.<\/p>\n Second<\/strong>, on the Republican side, I fundamentally think that 28\/24\/23 are effectively too close to declare conclusions to be drawn, in isolation, about the direction of the contest. \u00a0I\u2019m glad that Cruz decided to oppose continued ethanol subsidies and upend the conventional wisdom that the only path to the presidency is to maintain them. \u00a0I\u2019m glad that Rubio gained so much ground over prior polling \u2014 even though I distrust him on immigration<\/a>, I nonetheless think he\u2019s the best choice Republicans have, and I hope that other Republicans drop out (sorry, Chris Christie!) to grow his support.<\/p>\n Third<\/strong>, well, have I ever told\u00a0you how much I dislike our primary\/caucus system? \u00a0The very fact that Iowans and New Hampshirites take it as their birthright that they should be able to meet as many candidates as they wish in small group settings and question them directly, while the rest of us can only hope for, perhaps, a rally in some stadium \u2014 and that, only if we live in a battleground state \u2014 really p***es me off. \u00a0How effective is our democracy if I, living in Illinois, have no chance of casting a meaningful vote in either the primary election (because the field\u2019s been winnowed down) or the general election (because it\u2019s so blue that Republican candidates don\u2019t even make an effort to campaign)?<\/p>\n In 2012, the GOP nomination contest was effectively decided by May 2<\/a>; in 2008, in March<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 though Obama and Clinton continued to fight until June. \u00a0Kerry likewise secured the nomination in 2004 in March<\/a>, and George W. Bush in March of 2000<\/a>. \u00a0In each case, the list of states which had yet to vote, and whose voters therefore were denied a meaningful primary election, is long. \u00a0It further seems to me that back four years ago, there were proposals being circulated \u2014 regional primaries, or rotating early primaries \u2014 but that pundits and reformers have pretty much given up this time around.<\/p>\n So there we are. \u00a0If you support a candidate, your vote doesn\u2019t count nearly as much as your willingness to open up your pocketbook, or maybe<\/em> your ability to scoot over to an early-primary state as a volunteer.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" If you read the news this morning, you know the outcome: \u00a0Clinton and Sanders are effectively tied in Iowa, and the vote was split more evenly than expected among the Republicans, with Cruz, Trump, and Rubio on top with 28%, 24%, and 23% respectively. \u00a0(I find it hard to say \u201cCruz won\u201d when he took […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[304,305,257],"class_list":["post-3818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-iowa-caucus","tag-primaries","tag-rubio"],"yoast_head":"\n