{"id":4117,"date":"2016-03-15T20:52:42","date_gmt":"2016-03-16T02:52:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?p=4117"},"modified":"2016-03-26T15:56:24","modified_gmt":"2016-03-26T21:56:24","slug":"watching-the-election-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/watching-the-election-returns.html","title":{"rendered":"Watching the election returns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"I<\/a><\/p>\n

9:35. \u00a0Back from the band concert. \u00a0(And, yes, this was a concert with three bands, so each time they changed, and pretty much any time there was a pause, I checked Real Clear Politics.)<\/p>\n

Ohio goes to Kasich, by a surprising large margin, 45% to 37% at this point, with 65% of the vote in.<\/p>\n

Trump trounced all the contenders in Florida, 46% compared to Rubio\u2019s measly 27%. \u00a0How Rubio thought he was going to narrow the gap is beyond me. \u00a0Yes, he didn\u2019t want to give up before his home state voted, and maybe it wouldn\u2019t have mattered anyway, but it\u2019s still painful to see Trump gain all Florida\u2019s delegates.<\/p>\n

North Carolina is a bright spot, since it\u2019s proportional, and Cruz is only slightly behind Trump, 37% to 41%.<\/p>\n

Illinois? \u00a0I\u2019m dumbfounded that Trump is so far ahead of the others \u2014 40% compared to Cruz\u2019s 29%. \u00a0But this is one where Kasich has a significant number, 20%, so acted as spoiler.<\/p>\n

And Missouri? \u00a0It\u2019s very close right now, but, according to another site, The Green Papers<\/a>, it\u2019s winner take all by congressional district, plus a bonus for the state winner-take-all, and Cruz\u2019s lead is concentrated in one district only. \u00a0But only 55% of the vote is in, so there\u2019s still some modest chance.<\/p>\n

9:45<\/p>\n

My husband is watching Fox News (yes, he likes to think that he\u2019s watching it in an ironic sort of way), and they\u2019re reporting that Ted Cruz now has a slight lead.<\/p>\n

Rubio has also withdrawn. \u00a0Finally! \u00a0But is it too late?<\/p>\n

Also, for discussion: \u00a0a Slate piece by Reihan Salam, \u201cMitt Romney Should Run for President as a Third-Party Candidate<\/a>.\u201d \u00a0He\u2019s their token conservative, so this isn\u2019t just a joke piece. \u00a0He says,<\/p>\n

There are a huge number of voters who are desperate for a different candidate. A recent NBC\/Wall Street Journal survey reported that two-thirds of registered voters can\u2019t see themselves supporting Trump while 56 percent feel the same way about Hillary Clinton. Among Republicans, 43 percent hold a negative opinion of Trump, and a quarter believe that a Trump victory would \u201cmostly bring the wrong kind of change.\u201d In a Trump versus Clinton race, anti-Trump conservatives might be tempted to find a hard-right candidate to serve as their champion, but they\u2019d be wise to find someone who could plausibly attract centrist voters and who would have some meaningful base of support. Romney fits the bill perfectly.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Who would you pick as a centrist third party candidate?<\/p>\n

10:22<\/p>\n

No movement in the returns.<\/p>\n

Ramesh Ponnuru offers his thoughts at Bloomberg View, in \u201cA Fair Way to Choose a Republican Nominee<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Different rules, as Francis Barry has written, could make it more likely that in the future party nominations will go to candidates with majority support. States could, for example, hold runoff elections between the top two candidates in a primary. Or they could hold \u201cinstant runoffs.\u201d Take a race with three candidates. Voters could rank those candidates. If none of them got 51 percent of voters to say he was their first choice, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated. Then his voters would be reallocated to their second-choice candidate. The winner would then be preferred by the majority. . . .<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a process that would generate a majority for a candidate automatically: There would no need for multiple ballots, and thus no politicking between rounds of voting. The process would also be formally neutral. My guess is that most of the delegates who are not pledged to either Trump or Cruz will prefer the senator to the billionaire, and so the process will work to Cruz\u2019s advantage. But it is certainly possible that Trump would win the instant runoff \u2014 and even possible, if less likely, that a third candidate could.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In Germany, on Sunday, I observed<\/a> that the ironic result of the support for far-right, immigration-opposing Euroskeptic Alternative for Germany was that center-left parties won the day; since AfD is to toxic to build a coalition with, the left and center-left have a greater share of the coalition-able vote. \u00a0With our two party system, just the opposite is occurring, as Trump\u2019s rise, and a center-right split too many ways (and that counts Cruz as \u201ccenter-right\u201d because he\u2019s the desperate second choice of center-rightists!) \u2014 as well as the pull to the Left among the Democrats \u2014 is dismantling the center, and there\u2019s no effective way for center-left and center-right to come together.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

(Image: \u00a0own photograph)<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

9:35. \u00a0Back from the band concert. \u00a0(And, yes, this was a concert with three bands, so each time they changed, and pretty much any time there was a pause, I checked Real Clear Politics.) Ohio goes to Kasich, by a surprising large margin, 45% to 37% at this point, with 65% of the vote in. 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