{"id":4231,"date":"2016-03-31T11:13:29","date_gmt":"2016-03-31T17:13:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?p=4231"},"modified":"2016-03-31T11:15:56","modified_gmt":"2016-03-31T17:15:56","slug":"a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html","title":{"rendered":"A high minimum wage is magical thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Really, it is.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the LA Times reporting<\/a> on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022.<\/p>\n

The governor\u2019s plan, crafted through weeks of private negotiations among a small group of lawmakers and labor officials, increases the current $10 statewide minimum wage by 50 cents on Jan. 1 to $10.50 an hour. From there, it would rise to $11 in 2018 and subsequent dollar-a-year increases ending at $15 on Jan. 1, 2022.<\/p>\n

Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Le\u00f3n (D-Los Angeles) said 5.6 million people, or one in three California workers, would get a raise. . . .<\/p>\n

The agreement allows for a temporary pause in the first few years of boosted salaries if California\u2019s unemployment rate rises or if a deficit is projected in future state budgets.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One of the commenters linked to a page at the Department of Labor, titled \u201cMinimum Wage Mythbusters<\/a>,\u201d which asserts that minimum wage hikes will have nothing but positive impacts.* \u00a0Here\u2019s a key paragraph:<\/p>\n

Myth: Increasing the minimum wage will cause people to lose their jobs.<\/p>\n

Not true: In a letter<\/a> to President Obama and congressional leaders urging a minimum wage increase, more than 600 economists, including 7 Nobel Prize winners wrote, \u201cIn recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And here\u2019s that letter: \u00a0\u201cOver 600 Economists Sign Letter In Support of $10.10 Minimum Wage<\/a>,\u201d at the Economic Policy Institute site. \u00a0This is a letter, published in 2014, in support of an increase, by 2016, to $10.10, with no details, no evidence. \u00a0This is not \u201cproof\u201d that larger minimum wages will have beneficial impacts; indeed, the research thus far is mixed\u00a0and muddled by the fact that\u00a0states and cities which hike their wages are generally those with stronger economies and higher wages to start with, so that, when there are seemingly no ill effects, there is no real proof to be found here. \u00a0It\u2019s an assertion of authority and expertise, nothing else.<\/p>\n

Now, I am not going to dig up the various studies to be found, and address them one by one. \u00a0But the notion that a minimum wage hike is a \u201cfree lunch\u201d? \u00a0Even without having access to those studies and research models, on the face of it, it\u2019s magical thinking.<\/p>\n

The claim is that the government, by this single action of decreeing a higher minimum wage, can trigger a chain of beneficial impacts: \u00a0low-wage workers no longer need to use food stamps, they spend their earnings in ways that grow the economy, and everyone\u2019s better off.<\/p>\n

Now, I could type up a lengthy blog post about the impact of a high minimum wage on youth (un)employment, inflation, job loss in general, and the impossibility of trying to set a minimum wage at a level at which a single breadwinner can support a family of \u2014 what, 3, 4, 5, or more? \u00a0I could link to articles such as the recent Forbes article<\/a> (itself a link from Real Clear Politics) chronicling the impact of a high minimum wage in Greece.\u00a0\u00a0But even without such research, the notion that the government can, by this simple mandate, beneficially transform the economy and society? \u00a0It defies all reason. \u00a0We mock the fact that Trump makes pronouncements of things he\u2019ll do, by fiat, with a statement of \u201cit\u2019ll be great.\u201d \u00a0But the blind acceptance that a $15 minimum wage will work as promised\u00a0is magical thinking as well.<\/p>\n

*A side note: \u00a0I was surprised to see this direct advocacy on the Department of Labor website, and especially one that, really, looks pretty unprofessional. \u00a0I\u2019d get chided if I sent something out to a client that looked like this. \u00a0But it seems to me that the term \u201cadministration\u201d is no longer appropriate, or even \u201cexecutive branch\u201d \u2013 to the extent that they do far more than administer, or execute, laws passed by Congress.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Really, it is. Let\u2019s start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor\u2019s plan, crafted through weeks of private negotiations among a small group of lawmakers and labor officials, increases the current $10 statewide minimum wage by 50 cents on Jan. 1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[48],"class_list":["post-4231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-minimum-wage"],"yoast_head":"\nA high minimum wage is magical thinking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A high minimum wage is magical thinking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-03-31T17:13:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-03-31T17:15:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html\",\"name\":\"A high minimum wage is magical thinking\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-03-31T17:13:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-03-31T17:15:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\"},\"description\":\"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"A high minimum wage is magical thinking\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jane the Actuary\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A high minimum wage is magical thinking","description":"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A high minimum wage is magical thinking","og_description":"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html","og_site_name":"Jane the Actuary","article_published_time":"2016-03-31T17:13:29+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-03-31T17:15:56+00:00","author":"Jane the Actuary","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jane the Actuary","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html","name":"A high minimum wage is magical thinking","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website"},"datePublished":"2016-03-31T17:13:29+00:00","dateModified":"2016-03-31T17:15:56+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a"},"description":"Really, it is. Let's start with the LA Times reporting on the agreement to hike the minimum wage in California to $15\/hour in 2022. The governor's plan,","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2016\/03\/a-high-minimum-wage-is-magical-thinking.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A high minimum wage is magical thinking"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/","name":"Jane the Actuary","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a","name":"Jane the Actuary","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jane the Actuary"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}