Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html\",\"name\":\"Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\"},\"description\":\"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Economic growth, vs. plain ol’ spending\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jane the Actuary\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane\"}]}<\/script>\n","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending","description":"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending","og_description":"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html","og_site_name":"Jane the Actuary","article_published_time":"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00","author":"Jane the Actuary","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jane the Actuary","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html","name":"Economic growth, vs. plain ol' spending","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website"},"datePublished":"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00","dateModified":"2014-06-02T22:40:00+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a"},"description":"So the other day I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Economic growth, vs. plain ol’ spending"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/","name":"Jane the Actuary","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a","name":"Jane the Actuary","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jane the Actuary"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/455\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}

{"id":455,"date":"2014-06-02T22:40:00","date_gmt":"2014-06-02T22:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html"},"modified":"2014-06-02T22:40:00","modified_gmt":"2014-06-02T22:40:00","slug":"economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/06\/economic-growth-vs-plain-ol-spending.html","title":{"rendered":"Economic growth, vs. plain ol’ spending"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

So the other day<\/a> I connected an article claiming that same-sex marriage would be a boon for the economy, to the broken-windows fallacy, because, if a couple spends big bucks on a wedding that wouldn\u2019t have otherwise happened, the money isn\u2019t going to come from nowhere but would be money not spent on other things.<\/p>\n

Today I\u2019m thinking about this some more.<\/p>\n

In principle, through creative destruction, jobs are lost \u2014 due to mechanization, due to global sourcing, etc. \u2014 but because of productivity gains, wages increase for those who hold onto their jobs. \u00a0And new varieties of consumer goods spring up for those \u201cwinners\u201d to spend their increased wages on, e.g., Starbucks coffee rather than home- or office-brewed, or yoga classes, or the like. \u00a0And then jobs are created for those who would have been jobless, and everyone\u2019s better off, in a sort of virtuous cycle (except that it\u2019s not really a cycle).<\/p>\n

The problem is: \u00a0the new consumer goods are supposed to be the second part of the cycle: \u00a0first, productivity gains put money in people\u2019s pockets, then people find ways to entice people to spend more when their money\u2019s burning a hole through their pockets. \u00a0But median income has been flat \u2014 and, looking at the sexes separately, while median wages have grown for women, they\u2019ve declined for men (see my numbers from back in February<\/a>\u00a0on long-term trends\u00a0and these numbers on changes by quartile since 2000<\/a>). \u00a0Yes, these are median wages for full-time workers, and don\u2019t reflect changes in labor force participation, for which I\u2019d need to dig up a different set of numbers. \u00a0But I expect they would tell a similar story.<\/p>\n

Yes, average income has grown, and the upper-middle-class and the wealthy are doing quite well, and buying lots of Starbucks coffee and paying lots of yoga instructors.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s my concern: \u00a0it\u2019s not just the wealthy who have new categories of consumer goods that have become prevalent and have, in fact, become \u201cneeds.\u201d \u00a0The median and below-median income earners \u201cneed\u201d smartphones and monthly smartphone bills, and internet access at home, and a regularly-upgraded computer, for instance. \u00a0They \u201cneed\u201d college educations for their children. \u00a0A couple generations ago, they began to \u201cneed\u201d a wedding with a catered meal in a reception hall where their parents got married more simply; now, we\u2019re told, same-sex couples \u201cneed\u201d this too. \u00a0The accoutrements of modern life have made their way into our culture, and have increased the amount of spending necessary to meet all these perceived needs, but, unless there\u2019s something wrong with our metrics for inflation adjustment, only upper earners are seeing the income growth, in real terms, that means that they can afford them, without sacrificing other purchases.<\/p>\n

Do you see what I\u2019m getting at?<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"