{"id":467,"date":"2014-05-30T19:51:00","date_gmt":"2014-05-30T19:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/05\/broken-windows-fallacy-gay-marriage-edition-with-updates.html"},"modified":"2014-05-30T19:51:00","modified_gmt":"2014-05-30T19:51:00","slug":"broken-windows-fallacy-gay-marriage-edition-with-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/05\/broken-windows-fallacy-gay-marriage-edition-with-updates.html","title":{"rendered":"Broken-windows fallacy, gay marriage edition (with updates)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Just a quick late-lunch comment on an article in today\u2019s Tribune, \u201cAt dawn of same-sex marriage, wedding business is booming<\/a>.\u201d \u00a0The article profiles wedding vendors expecting a boost in business due to the legalization of same-sex marriages \u2014 and there may be some reality behind the expectations, if there are significant numbers of couples for whom a non-legally-recognized commitment ceremony or a legal but deemed-inferior civil union didn\u2019t merit a big celebration, or didn\u2019t merit having at all, but a marriage does. \u00a0But will gay wedding be a boon to the economy?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what the Trib says:<\/p>\n

According to theWilliams Institute, a national think tank based at the University of California at Los Angeles, extending the right to marry to same-sex couples should generate up to $103 million in spending in the first three years of the law. \u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u00a0A study conducted by the group predicts that Illinois\u2019 wedding business will see an increase by $74 million by 2017, and the state could see an increase of $29 million in tourism expenditures made by out-of-town guests by then. \u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The boost in wedding spending would generate about 281 jobs in the state, the study found. \u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Businesses are banking that same-sex wedding couples may even spend more on their weddings than heterosexual couples. Studies have found that gay couples have higher household income than heterosexual couples and that LGBT consumers are better at managing their money.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But isn\u2019t this a variant on the Broken Windows Fallacy? \u00a0(Wikipedia article here<\/a>, to refresh your memory.)<\/p>\n

Where, after all, will this money come from? \u00a0Will these newlywed couples borrow? \u00a0Will they spend their savings? \u00a0(And, if so, will they do so prudently?) \u00a0Will they take on overtime, moonlight, take on extra freelancing projects? \u00a0Or will they just spend money that they would have spent otherwise, but just do so on a wedding, instead of new living room furniture, or a vacation, or a new car?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the link<\/a> to the organization that\u2019s making these calculations, the Williams Institute. \u00a0So far as I can tell, they put out papers with the same methodology for every state for which it\u2019s a topic under discussion. \u00a0And this is the research arm of a law school, and the authors don\u2019t appear to have any firm background in economic modelling, so their reports should not be given credence by reporters.<\/p>\n

More thoughts: \u00a0It occurs to me that I don\u2019t actually know how people finance their weddings, in the present day. \u00a0Periodically, you\u2019ll read the latest results of a survey on the \u201cofficial\u201d cost of the average wedding \u2014 according to CNN<\/a>, it\u2019s now up to $30,000 \u2014 but I\u2019ve never believed that this is particularly credible. \u00a0Maybe this is, \u201cof those couples who have a formal reception\u201d? \u00a0Surely a substantial number of couple have the sort of weddings I\u2019ve been to on several occasions, with the reception consisting of a simple paper-plate meal in the church basement or VFW hall, right? \u00a0(Or my uncle\u2019s backyard BBQ wedding?) \u00a0And surely to get to a figure as high as $30,000 on average, these on-the-cheap weddings, much less the \u201ccity hall + dinner out\u201d wedding, are excluded?<\/p>\n

In any event, for the full-blown expensive dress, dozen bridesmaids, formal reception, ice sculpture weddings: \u00a0how are they financed? \u00a0I suppose in the scenario in which mom & dad pay, they\u2019ve ideally got enough savings to just withdraw the cash, but one reads that most of the time now, it\u2019s the couple who pays \u2014 do they really have the savings? \u00a0Do they take out loans? \u00a0Max out the credit cards? \u00a0Married readers, what did you do?<\/p>\n

(Me? \u00a0We were just leaving grad school \u2014 my parents gave us a check and my in-laws did, but ours was pretty cheap, anyway: \u00a0I remember the wedding dress costing $500. \u00a0The guest list was small, and the wedding itself as well as the reception was in the Sacred Heart Parish Center at Notre Dame (that is, not the Basilica, but the chapel and community room, respectively), so we didn\u2019t have any costs for the facility, just the caterer. \u00a0We even paid for the beer & wine on a \u201cusage\u201d basis rather than per person, per hour, because we knew our families weren\u2019t heavy drinkers. \u00a0Flowers came from Michaels and the grocery store floral department. \u00a0We paid the photographer a flat fee for the photo-taking and the negatives, and put together our own albums afterwards. \u00a0The grand total? \u00a0No idea any longer, although I probably still have all the papers packed away in a box in the basement.) <\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just a quick late-lunch comment on an article in today\u2019s Tribune, \u201cAt dawn of same-sex marriage, wedding business is booming.\u201d \u00a0The article profiles wedding vendors expecting a boost in business due to the legalization of same-sex marriages \u2014 and there may be some reality behind the expectations, if there are significant numbers of couples for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nBroken-windows fallacy, gay marriage edition (with updates)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Just a quick late-lunch comment on an article in today's Tribune, "At dawn of same-sex marriage, wedding business is booming."  The article profiles\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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