![\"IMG_1018\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/533\/2016\/06\/IMG_1018-1024x768.jpg\")
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So you all in the U.S. went to bed knowing the result of the Brexit referendum. \u00a0I\u2019m just waking up and seeing the news.<\/p>\n
Three\u00a0thoughts:<\/p>\n
First<\/strong>, the exit polls, or their nearest equivalent, \u201cday-of\u201d polls, were off \u2014 showing Remain would squeak by a few percentage points, when it\u2019s Leave by an equally small percentage, 52% to 48%. \u00a0Either result is close. \u00a0Either result shows that there\u2019s no national consensus; one would expect that a vote of such profound importance would have had a higher margin one way or the other.<\/p>\n But at the same time, the choice was stark: \u00a0yes or no. \u00a0There was no way to express a \u201cI\u2019d like to keep our trade ties but reduce the power of the Eurocrats\u201d other than reducing that sentiment to a \u201cI don\u2019t believe this is possible, so I want to leave.\u201d<\/p>\n How many people were in the middle, in terms of their overall sentiment, but had no way to express a \u201cmend it, don\u2019t end it\u201d opinion, and feared that a Remain would leave them powerless to modify the ties?<\/p>\n Second<\/strong>, the reporting is boiling the decision down, for ordinary Britons, to a matter of immigration \u2014 both the Eastern Europeans entitled to move to the UK due to free movement provisions, and the obligations to take in refugees according to EU committments. \u00a0The concerns about jobs, welfare benefits, wage undercutting, etc., are the same as with respect to Mexican immigration to the United States, and Americans would find a similar arrangement \u00a0with Mexico and Central America intolerable, though, to be sure, the income disparities between the US and our neighbors to the south is greater than the disparities between Britian and Eastern Europe.<\/p>\n Third<\/strong> is the question of how damaging the exit will be to the British, European, and world economy. \u00a0Not long ago, Obama was making threats like \u201cBritian will go to the end of the queue\u201d with respect to trade agreements, and there were statements floating around that the EU and others would essentially punish the UK for leaving, with trade wars and other Bad Things. \u00a0One hopes this wouldn\u2019t actually come to pass, that world leaders and civilized nations wouldn\u2019t decide to treat a nation in a punitive way because of the voter\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n And fundamentally, taken in isolation, the decision of a country whether to be a part of a larger international organization, and how much of their sovereignty to give up to that organization, is well within their rights to decide. \u00a0There\u2019s nothing xenophobic or racist or otherwise unjust about choosing one way or another, no grounds for choosing to \u201cpunish\u201d the people of Britain for their vote.<\/p>\n And yet, of course, the fact that Britain joined the EU and is now leaving, has the potential to be tremendously disruptive. \u00a0How disruptive, exactly, remains to be seen, and at some point becomes a matter of whether people of good will can come to new agreements on a different footing. But the work in implementing Leave will be difficult and costly, at a minimum. \u00a0And already the pound has dropped dramatically, by 10% since yesterday \u2014 too late for us to benefit unless we spend freely for one last day \u2014 but there\u2019s no way to know yet how long-term that impact will be.<\/p>\n It is however, not an outbreak of war, not an economic collapse, not an apocalypse.<\/p>\n So that\u2019s what I know. \u00a0What do you think?<\/p>\n Image: \u00a0the TV, as we\u2019re watching it while getting ready for the day.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" So you all in the U.S. went to bed knowing the result of the Brexit referendum. \u00a0I\u2019m just waking up and seeing the news. Three\u00a0thoughts: First, the exit polls, or their nearest equivalent, \u201cday-of\u201d polls, were off \u2014 showing Remain would squeak by a few percentage points, when it\u2019s Leave by an equally small percentage, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":4768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[416],"class_list":["post-4767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-brexit"],"yoast_head":"\n