{"id":572,"date":"2014-03-19T15:30:00","date_gmt":"2014-03-19T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/03\/illinois-primary-postmortem.html"},"modified":"2014-03-19T15:30:00","modified_gmt":"2014-03-19T15:30:00","slug":"illinois-primary-postmortem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/03\/illinois-primary-postmortem.html","title":{"rendered":"Illinois Primary Postmortem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

<\/p>\n

The election\u2019s over.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

And as far as the Illinois general election is concerned, it is truly over with.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Bruce Rauner vs. Pat Quinn for governor?\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Rauner is\u00a0very much in the\u00a0\u201csocial liberal\u201d camp, so far as I can tell.\u00a0 <\/span>So Rauner won\u2019t be able to count on the enthusiasm of the GOP base; he\u2019ll need to keep forking out his own money to counter what will presumably be massive spending on the part of the unions.\u00a0 <\/span>Will enough general election voters believe his assertions that he can fix Illinois by Standing Up to the Unions\u2122?\u00a0 <\/span>Unlikely.\u00a0<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Jim Oberweis vs. Dick Durbin for senator?\u00a0 <\/span>It may be that Durbin is too far to the left to capture the interest of independents.\u00a0 <\/span>But I just can\u2019t imagine a single independent voter voting for Oberweis, after his failed attempts at statewide elections in the past.\u00a0 <\/span>The fact that the Republican party was more than happy to support him (at least, I got a mailer from my township Republican party saying that he was their endorsed candidate) is pretty sad, and shows that they\u2019re writing off this race.<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/div>\n
In both cases, though, the results were closer than I expected.\u00a0 <\/span>Oberweis defeated Truax by 56% \u2013 44% or something like that, which, while decisive, shows that Truax had more of a chance than I expected, given that he had no money that I could tell, and certainly no name recognition.\u00a0 <\/span>Were those votes coming as a result of the Tribune endorsement?\u00a0 <\/span>Due to voters actually looking him up?\u00a0 <\/span>Due to some advertisements that I just haven\u2019t seen?\u00a0 <\/span>Or were they based on opposition to Oberweis?<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

And Kirk Dillard came rather close to Rauner.\u00a0 <\/span>If you assume that people were, first and foremost either voting for or against Rauner, then deciding, if \u201cagainst,\u201d which other candidate to choose, then the anti-Rauner vote far exceeded the pro-Rauner vote, and if it had been split between fewer candidates \u2013 if for instance, Rutherford had had the decency to drop out \u2013 Dillard might have had a chance.\u00a0 <\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Could Dillard have had more of a chance if people had believed it to be the case?\u00a0 <\/span>What was the turnout?\u00a0 <\/span>Did too many voters believe it was a foregone conclusion and not bother?\u00a0 <\/span>(The weather was great yesterday, so that\u2019s not an excuse!)\u00a0 Or did Dillard lose too many voters due to the teacher\u2019s union endorsement, anyway?<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Most pathetic was the race for 9th<\/sup> House district:\u00a0 <\/span>the official GOP nominee is, according to the Tribune, a real crackpot.\u00a0 No joke.\u00a0 <\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Yes, this is a gerrymandered district, and whoever the nominee is, has an uphill battle, to say the least. \u00a0<\/span>But to have such a crackpot candidate \u2013 it\u2019s not just embarrassing, it fundamentally says that in Illinois, the GOP might as well just shut down.\u00a0\u00a0 Yes, the GOP disowned her, but\u00a0they also didn\u2019t bother to support any opponent, either.<\/span>\u00a0<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

So what next?\u00a0 <\/span><\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Jane the Actuary for Congress?<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

What do you do when you\u2019re in a two-party system, and the party you identify with, is so thoroughly broken in your local area?\u00a0 <\/span>Long-term, my goal isn\u2019t to write snarky commentary on the internet, or even to find a writing niche like Megan McArdle or Heather McDonald, but the more ambitious (and yet, I know, stupidly na\u00efve) notion of finding a way to have people actually listen to what I have to say, and saying things that are intelligent enough to listen to.\u00a0 <\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The election\u2019s over. And as far as the Illinois general election is concerned, it is truly over with.\u00a0 Bruce Rauner vs. Pat Quinn for governor?\u00a0\u00a0Rauner is\u00a0very much in the\u00a0\u201csocial liberal\u201d camp, so far as I can tell.\u00a0 So Rauner won\u2019t be able to count on the enthusiasm of the GOP base; he\u2019ll need to keep […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nIllinois Primary Postmortem<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The election\u2019s over.And as far as the Illinois general election is concerned, it is truly over with. Bruce Rauner vs. Pat Quinn for\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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