wrote about the CBO report<\/a> last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. <\/p>\nBut here are the key points that people don\u2019t seem to understand, as I read through blog posts and comments: <\/p>\n
1) The CBO projection is for the years 2017 and afterwards, when they assume the economy will be \u201cback to normal.\u201d These are 2% fewer hours worked than would have otherwise been the case, assuming a healthy economy. They agree that, in the short-term, the labor force drop-outs or scale-backers will be replaced by other workers currently unemployed, but figure that won\u2019t always be the case. If your expectation is that the job market will be lousy for generations to come, then, indeed, moving the marginally-attached out in favor of those who want to work isn\u2019t as much of a problem. Which means that your opinion on the impacts of the ACA will be bound up with your opinion of the future of the American economy, and how well or poorly it will adapt to the imacts of globalization, immigration, technology, etc., on the nature and number of jobs. <\/p>\n
2) The CBO projection looks at total hours worked \u2014 if a person leaves their job to find fulfillment as a freelance writer, but spends as much time working on a self-employed basis, this counts as no net effect. <\/p>\n
3) Some of the CBO\u2019s forecasted impacts are due to the really hideous cliffs \u2014 as has been pointed out, there are cases where an extra dollar earned in pay causes a loss of subsidies worth $10,000 or even $20,000. And some of them are just because, with the government subsidies, people need less wage income to maintain the same standard of living, which would be the case with any sort of universal coverage benefit. This is certainly the case for early retirees, and I can easily envision someone sitting down with a financial planner, working out a reasonable 401(k) withdrawal pattern, and adding in the (now reduced) cost of health insurance into their budget, to see more favorable numbers than a pre-ACA calculation would have generated. <\/p>\n
4) The CBO doesn\u2019t, as far as I can tell, factor in the potential impact on the overall economy, of more people collecting subsidies than forecast, except to say that it improves the economy due to \u201cstimulus\u201d type deficit spending. For clarity, I think this is a Bad Thing and am skeptical of Keynesian multipliers, which seem to be \u201cproven\u201d only by virtue of citing numbers produced by models. <\/p>\n
5) Yes, the comments by Democrats defending the ACA who speak of no longer being tied to a job as \u201cliberating\u201d are flaky. It\u2019s tempting to jump in and vent about how we are not a wealthy enough country to be able to support large numbers of people not working, or not working to their full capacity, due to the provision of government subsidies to meet their living expenses. But it\u2019s clear that most of these comments are made based on the need to rise to ObamaCare\u2019s defense. And some of it is a bit murky: retiring at 65 and collecting Medicare is OK, but retiring at 64 and collecting subsidies is \u201cfeeding at the public trough\u201d? A couple where one party, in the future, decides to work part-time after the baby is born, because they can swing the finances, is a \u201ctaker\u201d? Just because the Democrats are spouting out nonsense about finding fulfillment outside of the corporate world doesn\u2019t mean you have to take their spin at face value. <\/p>\n
6) It\u2019s a model, people. All models are based on underlying assumptions which may or may not be correct. <\/p>\n
7) Do you think the CBO is hiring? Do you think they\u2019d hire an actuary, to work remotely and part-time, with somewhat weak technical skills?<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are the key points that people don\u2019t seem to understand, as I read through blog posts and comments: 1) The CBO projection is for the years 2017 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n
For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jane the Actuary\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html\",\"name\":\"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\"},\"description\":\"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a\",\"name\":\"Jane the Actuary\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Jane the Actuary\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report","description":"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report","og_description":"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are","og_url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html","og_site_name":"Jane the Actuary","article_published_time":"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00","author":"Jane the Actuary","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jane the Actuary","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html","name":"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website"},"datePublished":"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00","dateModified":"2014-02-06T10:02:00+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a"},"description":"So I wrote about the CBO report last night, and, in the end, was pretty tired after I finished really working through it and summarizing it. But here are","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2014\/02\/for-avoidance-of-doubt-this-is-what-i-think-about-the-cbo-report.html#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"For avoidance of doubt, this is what I think about the CBO report"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/","name":"Jane the Actuary","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/ed9b99e0bd58c5eeeebae6b82fa5a77a","name":"Jane the Actuary","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8d6a493d380e87d49599d5487691c9fc?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Jane the Actuary"},"url":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/author\/actuaryjane"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2209"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}