So I started out thinking it would be a nice bloggy exercise to write out predictions for 2014, but I look ahead to 2014 with too much uncertainty.\u00a0 So here\u2019s what I\u2019m thinking are my \u201careas of concern\u00a0and\/or hope\u201d for 2014:<\/p>\n
Healthcare: <\/strong><\/p>\n Yes, I\u2019ve said repeatedly that ObamaCare isn\u2019t going to implode.\u00a0 It\u2019ll limp along for the foreseeable future, with the Obama administration waiving and deferring and executively ordering as much as needed to keep it going without changing the core components (which, at this point, basically amount to being wedded to the modified-community-rating cross-subsidies and the discontinuous direct subsidies).\u00a0 And right now we\u2019re just poll-watching, when the final measure won\u2019t be known until March 31st.\u00a0 <\/p>\n Immigration:<\/strong><\/p>\n Will the GOP cave?\u00a0\u00a0 Or, to the contrary, will they push Democrats to support or reject a mini-Dream Act?\u00a0 Will they propose legislation with hard, non-waivable\u00a0triggers, and stand firm on it?\u00a0 (Of course, the trick is how you make a trigger non-waivable, since you\u2019d really need to create a condition in which a private citizen has standing to sue to build in some tangible consequence for waiving.\u00a0 My pet \u2014 though admittedly unrealistic \u2014\u00a0solution is to build a requirement that if the administration waives or defers\u00a0or does a sucky job at enforcing an e-verify provision and grants amnesty nonetheless, all parents shall be entitled to claim 75% of their children\u2019s K-12 private\/parochial school tuition as a refundable tax credit.\u00a0 The progressives would have a heart attack at that!)<\/p>\n The elections:<\/strong><\/p>\n Nationally, I\u2019ve not really read much on what the GOP\u2019s chances are of taking the Senate, though we know that Obama and the Dems are going to do as much maneuvering as possible to try to prevent this.\u00a0 Locally, Illinois is looking at a wealthy businessman spending his own money to win the GOP primary, then losing in the general election.\u00a0 (His claim is the usual \u201cI\u2019ll run Illinois like a business\u201d but business-management skills are not what\u2019s needed \u2014 the problems Illinois faces are the control of Mike Madigan, the unions, and historical corruption.)\u00a0 And, for the Senate, our challenge to Dick Durbin will be one of two self-financed businessmen, the wealthier of the two being Jim Oberweis, who\u2019s lost election after election, and is now partway through a term of State Senator.\u00a0 <\/p>\n The economy:<\/strong><\/p>\n Who isn\u2019t<\/em> worried that the stock market is bubbly rather than genuinely stable?\u00a0 I do wish I had more of an economics background, since\u00a0my feeling is that the stock market is so high due to the very low interest rates in bonds, CDs, etc., pushing investors into stocks who would otherwise steer clear.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t have the data to back up or disprove this feeling.<\/p>\n In any case, the stock market is treating my family well, personally, but the overall labor market is still very worrisome, and I don\u2019t see any changes here.<\/p>\n The Eurozone:<\/strong><\/p>\n Yeah, this has been quiet lately, but the PIIGS are still struggling, and Merkel was forced to compromise substantially in building her Grand Coalition, with a very uncertain outcome.<\/p>\n North Korea:<\/strong><\/p>\n A time bomb.\u00a0 Un is showing that he sees himself as the third in a ruling dynasty, and is attempting to consolidate his power in the same way as an emperor would have centuries ago.\u00a0 A popular revolution is highly unlikely, but a power struggle between Un and the military could easily happen.\u00a0 Best case, he\u2019s toppled and we have military dictatorship as in Myanmar; worst case, there\u2019s open fighting.\u00a0 Actually, the worst case is the Un attacks the South in some fashion in order to keep his grip.\u00a0 At the same time, there\u2019s an equally good chance that they limp along in the status quo for some time yet.\u00a0 <\/p>\n Syria\/the Middle East:<\/strong><\/p>\n This one worries me greatly.\u00a0 Al Qaida\/Islamism is gaining strength, and the West is too worried about political correctness to acknowledge it.\u00a0 (Or too delusional, to the extent that the Obama administration believes that they can skillfully help the \u201cright\u201d Syrian rebels.)\u00a0\u00a0 I don\u2019t see a good outcome here.<\/p>\n So that\u2019s my list.\u00a0 What\u2019s yours?<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" So I started out thinking it would be a nice bloggy exercise to write out predictions for 2014, but I look ahead to 2014 with too much uncertainty.\u00a0 So here\u2019s what I\u2019m thinking are my \u201careas of concern\u00a0and\/or hope\u201d for 2014: Healthcare: Yes, I\u2019ve said repeatedly that ObamaCare isn\u2019t going to implode.\u00a0 It\u2019ll limp along […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n