{"id":914,"date":"2013-07-30T22:17:00","date_gmt":"2013-07-30T22:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2013\/07\/from-the-library-what-to-expect-when-no-ones-expecting-part-1-the-raw-numbers.html"},"modified":"2013-07-30T22:17:00","modified_gmt":"2013-07-30T22:17:00","slug":"from-the-library-what-to-expect-when-no-ones-expecting-part-1-the-raw-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/janetheactuary\/2013\/07\/from-the-library-what-to-expect-when-no-ones-expecting-part-1-the-raw-numbers.html","title":{"rendered":"From the library: What to Expect when No One’s Expecting (part 1, the raw numbers)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

So I\u2019ve been reading What to Expect When No One\u2019s Expecting:\u00a0 America\u2019s Coming Demographic Disaster, by Jonathan V. Last and wanted to type up my thoughts.<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot of great data in this book, and I wanted to start with just noting down some of the fun facts and figures.\u00a0 So:<\/span><\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n

Total Fertility Rate by Household Income Level (p. 44):<\/span>
< $20,000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.038<\/span>
$20 \u2013 30K\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.988<\/span>
$35 \u2013 50K\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.052<\/span>
$50 \u2013 75K\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.734<\/span>
$75 \u2013 100K\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.752<\/span>
$100K+\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.832<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

TFR by education level (p. 47)<\/span><\/div>\n

< high school diploma\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.447<\/span>
high school graduate\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.947<\/span>
1 + yrs college\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.719<\/span>
Assoc. degree\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.820<\/span>
Bachelor\u2019s degree\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.632<\/span>
Grad. school\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.596<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

By immigration status:<\/span><\/div>\n

native-born women:\u00a0 2.0<\/span>
foreign-born women:\u00a0 2.6<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

by religiosity:<\/span><\/div>\n

non-believers:\u00a0 1.66<\/span>
observant Protestants:\u00a0 2.2<\/span>
observant Catholics:\u00a0 2.3<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

International comparisons:<\/span><\/div>\n
<\/span>\u00a0<\/div>\n
In Mexico, historically:<\/span><\/div>\n

1970\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 6.72<\/span>
1980\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4.71<\/span>
1990\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.40<\/span>
2000\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.58<\/span>
2009\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.07<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran:<\/span><\/div>\n

1980ish (\u201cthirty years ago\u201d):\u00a0 6.5<\/span>
now:\u00a0 1.88<\/span>
** note that the 6.5 was caused by the post-Revolution \u201cbaby boom\u201d due to religious fervor and\/or government pressure, and was not a historical long-term rate.<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Huge youth bulge in the Gaza Strip:<\/span><\/div>\n

42% of the population below age 15<\/span>
49% between 15 and 30<\/span>
=only 9% over age 30!<\/span>
median age is 15.8 years<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Russia:<\/span><\/div>\n

TFR of 1.3<\/span>
population projected to decline from 143 million (2005) to 136 million (2025) or, in more pessimistic projections, to 121 million.<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan!<\/span><\/div>\n

Oh, man, is Japan in trouble.\u00a0 <\/span>
now:\u00a0 127.8 million<\/span>
2050:\u00a0 projected to drop to 100 million<\/span>
2100:\u00a0 optimistically, 91 million; realistically (unchanged fertility rates), 56 million.<\/span>
in 2011, more adult diapers sold than baby diapers.<\/span>
lots and lots of pro-natalist legislation making no difference<\/span><\/p>\n

Historical TFRs<\/span><\/div>\n

1972\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.14<\/span>
1990\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.54<\/span>
1995\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.42<\/span>
2001\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.33<\/span>
2003\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.29<\/span>
(erratic years because the chart keys off of years when pro-natalist legislation passed)<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Fertility rates in Europe:<\/span><\/div>\n

top nine:<\/span>
Ireland\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.08<\/span>
France\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.01<\/span>
UK\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.91<\/span>
Netherlands\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.78<\/span>
Luxembourg\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.77<\/span>
Denmark\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.74<\/span>
Finland\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.73<\/span>
Sweden\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.67<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Really awful rates:<\/span><\/div>\n

Spain\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.48<\/span>
Germany\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.41<\/span>
Hungary\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.41<\/span>
Italy\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.40<\/span>
Czech Rep.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1.27<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

France, native-born women:\u00a0 1.7<\/span><\/div>\n

foreign-born women:\u00a0 2.8 (another source:\u00a0 3 x native-born women)<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span>\u00a0<\/div>\n
Another major nosedive:\u00a0 Singapore<\/span><\/div>\n

1960:\u00a0 5.45<\/span>
1965:\u00a0 4.7<\/span>
1966:\u00a0 beginning of major efforts at population control <\/span>
1976:\u00a0 2.1<\/span>
1980:\u00a0 1.74<\/span>
1986:\u00a0 reverse course, incentives for more children<\/span>
small rebound:\u00a0 1988, 1.96<\/span>
but then decline, despite ever-greater incentives:<\/span>
1999:\u00a0 1.48<\/span>
2001:\u00a0 1.41<\/span>
2004:\u00a0 1.24<\/span>
\u201cnow\u201d: 1.11<\/span>
<\/span><\/p>\n

Georgia (the country, not the state), fun fact:\u00a0 to encourage births, the Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church personally (via mass baptisms) baptizes all third-children born in the country, and, coincidentally or as a result, the birth rate jumped 20% after this announcement.<\/span><\/div>\n
<\/span>\u00a0<\/div>\n
<\/span>\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So I\u2019ve been reading What to Expect When No One\u2019s Expecting:\u00a0 America\u2019s Coming Demographic Disaster, by Jonathan V. Last and wanted to type up my thoughts. There\u2019s a lot of great data in this book, and I wanted to start with just noting down some of the fun facts and figures.\u00a0 So: \u00a0 Total Fertility […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2209,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom the library: What to Expect when No One's Expecting (part 1, the raw numbers)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So I've been reading What to Expect When No One's Expecting:  America's Coming Demographic Disaster, by Jonathan V. 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