{"id":311,"date":"2009-03-20T13:37:08","date_gmt":"2009-03-20T18:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/joeljmiller.com\/?p=311"},"modified":"2009-03-20T13:37:08","modified_gmt":"2009-03-20T18:37:08","slug":"working-in-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/joeljmiller\/2009\/03\/working-in-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Working in uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p><figure id=\"attachment_1962\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1962\" style=\"width: 240px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/276\/2009\/03\/penguin.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/276\/2009\/03\/penguin.jpg\" alt=\"Penguin \" width=\"240\" height=\"240\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1962\"><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1962\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Matt Seppings, Flickr.<\/figcaption><\/figure>The book business isn\u2019t doing too well in America right now. Sales are down. Returns are up. And foot traffic in bookstores is in double-digit decline compared to a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s not the case everywhere. From its lofty seat in the lap of America\u2019s publishing culture, the <em>New York Times<\/em> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/03\/16\/business\/worldbusiness\/16books.html?_r=1&amp;ref=books\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">recently reported<\/a> that things are different in Europe, where book sales are actually up. <!--more-->Not that everyone\u2019s celebrating. Despite growth in sales, publishers there are cautious. Even nervous. They\u2019re looking back to events unfolding after 1929. Several French publishers failed during the Great Depression. Perhaps America\u2019s slump portends what\u2019s to come.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNow we are asking ourselves, will it be like that again?\u201d said one French editor quoted in the story. \u201cThere is still a sense of fragility.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She says what we all know, what we all fear. There is little certainty about the future. No one has visibility. But that\u2019s not necessarily a bad thing. Listen to what economist Israel M. Kirzner says in <em>Competition and Entrepreneurship<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Because the participants in this market are less than omniscient, there are likely to exist, at any given time, a multitude of opportunities that have not yet been taken advantage of.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Uncertainty means opportunity. Anyone can take the available knowledge and arrange his options A, B, and C. That\u2019s what happens now when we conduct business as usual or spend our moments worried about what\u2019s going to happen next. The entrepreneurial function is to put aside A, B, and C and discover D, G, and Q instead. <\/p>\n<p>The <em>Times<\/em> mentions just such as case:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Penguin was founded in 1935, during the Great Depression, by the publisher Allen Lane, who wanted to sell quality books for roughly the price of a pack of cigarettes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>It worked. In less than a year the company had already printed over a million books. Penguin\u2019s success was as then unpredictable as it is now legendary. While his colleagues were failing, Allen Lane figured out one way to serve his customers and grow a business.<\/p>\n<p>Thomas Nelson, the company for which I work, has a similar history of finding D, G, and Q. It\u2019s founder and namesake not only published affordable editions of popular books like John Bunyan\u2019s <em>Pilgrim\u2019s Progress<\/em>, but he also serialized the Scriptures so people could buy the Bible in pieces rather the invest in what was then a relatively expensive product. He hired traveling salesmen to field orders for his books, a first in 1829. Then in 1850 Thomas Nelson Jr. created the rotary press, a development that more than doubled the efficiency of printing and revolutionized the business. These innovations changed publishing and brought Nelson growth. And no one saw them coming.<\/p>\n<p>Omniscience sounds great. Certainty would be wonderful. But maybe not. The unequal dispersion of knowledge creates opportunity and space for growth. Allen Lane had an edge. So did Thomas Nelson. Working in uncertainty means using it to our advantage.<\/p>\n<p>I think the message of Penguin and Nelson is that while our environment has an impact on us we are not utterly dependent upon its externalities. We have unique internal energies that can be directed outward to serve customers in creative, as-yet-unforeseen ways and thereby overcome the environment. Put another way, it is because we don\u2019t know what will happen in the future that we have power to steer the present.<\/p>\n<p>What are some of the ways you think publishers can innovate in the current environment?<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The book business isn\u2019t doing too well in America right now. Sales are down. Returns are up. And foot traffic in bookstores is in double-digit decline compared to a year ago. But that\u2019s not the case everywhere. From its lofty seat in the lap of America\u2019s publishing culture, the New York Times recently reported that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1270,"featured_media":1962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[151,212,520,561],"class_list":["post-311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-books-2","tag-creativity","tag-entrepreneurs","tag-penguin","tag-publishing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Working in uncertainty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The book business isn\u2019t doing too well in America right now. Sales are down. Returns are up. 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