{"id":1,"date":"2013-01-15T18:53:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-15T18:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth\/"},"modified":"2013-01-15T18:53:00","modified_gmt":"2013-01-15T18:53:00","slug":"the-end-of-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html","title":{"rendered":"The End of Growth"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><head><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><meta http-equiv=\"content-type\" content=\"text\/html; charset=utf-8\"><\/head><body><p>Here\u2019s a link to an article from <i>The Wall Street Journal<\/i> titled \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424127887323706704578227920843309466.html\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">A California Drought: Not Enough Children<\/a>.\u201d  It points out California\u2019s declining birth rate and immigration patterns (including state to state immigration, not just people from other countries) as a predictor of future problems.  And it quotes Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, who said \u201cunless the birthrate picks up, we are going to need more immigrants. If neither happens, we are going to have less growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>From the mainstream viewpoint, this is a problem.  Continuous economic growth requires a continuously growing population, not just to replace retiring workers but also to make the markets bigger for goods and services.  Beyond that, it\u2019s a problem for the retiring baby boomers \u2013 Social Security benefits are paid for by taxes on current workers.  Fewer workers and more retirees mean either taxes go up or retirees get less than they were promised.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re on the tail end of experiencing what happens when economic growth slows down \u2013 unemployment increases, disrupting lives and plunging millions into poverty.  That was mitigated somewhat by the economic stimulus and extended unemployment benefits, but at a cost of increased national debt.<\/p>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" class=\"tr-caption-container\" style=\"float: right;margin-left: 1em;text-align: right\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-QH-UjwDR5EM\/UPX4h1gdw3I\/AAAAAAAACak\/pHBr7UNQVsM\/s1600\/Suburbia_by_David_Shankbone.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-QH-UjwDR5EM\/UPX4h1gdw3I\/AAAAAAAACak\/pHBr7UNQVsM\/s320\/Suburbia_by_David_Shankbone.jpg\" width=\"320\"><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"tr-caption\" style=\"text-align: center\"><!--[if gte mso 9]&gt;   Normal  0          false  false  false    EN-US  X-NONE  X-NONE                                       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4                                     &lt;![endif]--> \n<div class=\"MsoNormal\"><i>photo by David Shankbone <a href=\"http:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Suburbia_by_David_Shankbone.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">via Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/i><\/div>\n<p><!--[if gte mso 9]&gt;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    &lt;![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]&gt; \/* Style Definitions *\/  table.MsoNormalTable  {mso-style-name:\"Table Normal\";  mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;  mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;  mso-style-noshow:yes;  mso-style-priority:99;  mso-style-qformat:yes;  mso-style-parent:\"\";  mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;  mso-para-margin:0in;  mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:11.0pt;  font-family:\"Calibri\",\"sans-serif\";  mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";  mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;  mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-bidi-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";  mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} &lt;![endif]--><\/p><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Conventional wisdom says we need a continuously growing population to support a continuously growing economy.  The problem, of course, is that growth can\u2019t continue forever.  Sooner or later we\u2019re going to run out of places to put all the people.  We\u2019re going to run out of farmland to grow their food and out of fresh water to keep them alive.  And we\u2019re rapidly running out of the fossil fuels that keep the modern economy moving.  <\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve blown by previous estimates of the human carrying capacity of the Earth.  That leads the mainstream to assume that \u201cscience\u201d and \u201cprogress\u201d will always find a way for us to add more and consume more.  But we\u2019re already driving many other species to extinction.  We\u2019ve already got millions of people crammed into cities that disconnect them from the land.  And we\u2019ve already dumped enough carbon into the atmosphere to begin to raise the temperature of the Earth to inhospitable levels (for humans, anyway).<\/p>\n<p>Perpetual growth \u2013 of populations and of economies \u2013 is not possible.<\/p>\n<p>As the article points out, population growth is solving itself \u2013 Western Europe, Japan, and much of the United States show how.  As women become more prosperous and as they gain more control over their lives and their bodies, they choose to have fewer children.  While cultural differences will influence this trend in Asia and Africa, long term it is reasonable to expect that the human population will slow its growth, level off, then begin to decline.<\/p>\n<p>This means an economic model that assumes continuous growth will become even more unworkable than it already is, a problem that will be exacerbated as fossil fuel supplies continue to decline and as the impact of climate change consumes more and more resources.  <\/p>\n<p>Isn\u2019t it time we started reconfiguring our economy and our lives not for growth but for sustainability?<\/p>\n<p>How do we do that?  We won\u2019t do it with a top-down command economy.  That\u2019s been tried and it was a miserable failure.  <\/p>\n<p>Nobody told European, Japanese and American women to stop having so many children.  They saw their lives would be better off that way and made the decision themselves.  <\/p>\n<table cellpadding=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" class=\"tr-caption-container\" style=\"float: left;margin-right: 1em;text-align: left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-I_tHGHwSANk\/UPX41-FvgeI\/AAAAAAAACas\/R6LVhQxXs0U\/s1600\/Corn_growing_in_a_backyard_garden_in_New_Jersey.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" height=\"188\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-I_tHGHwSANk\/UPX41-FvgeI\/AAAAAAAACas\/R6LVhQxXs0U\/s320\/Corn_growing_in_a_backyard_garden_in_New_Jersey.jpg\" width=\"320\"><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"tr-caption\" style=\"text-align: center\"><!--[if gte mso 9]&gt;   Normal  0          false  false  false    EN-US  X-NONE  X-NONE                                       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4                                     &lt;![endif]--><i><span style='font-family: Times,\"Times New Roman\",serif'><span style=\"font-size: x-small\">photo by Tomwsulcer <a href=\"http:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Corn_growing_in_a_backyard_garden_in_New_Jersey.jpg\" class=\" decorated-link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">via Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/i><!--[if gte mso 9]&gt;                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    &lt;![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]&gt; \/* Style Definitions *\/  table.MsoNormalTable  {mso-style-name:\"Table Normal\";  mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;  mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;  mso-style-noshow:yes;  mso-style-priority:99;  mso-style-qformat:yes;  mso-style-parent:\"\";  mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;  mso-para-margin:0in;  mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;  mso-pagination:widow-orphan;  font-size:11.0pt;  font-family:\"Calibri\",\"sans-serif\";  mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;  mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-fareast-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";  mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;  mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;  mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;  mso-bidi-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";  mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} &lt;![endif]--><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>What does it take to convince Westerners that our lives would be better off with less stuff?  That we\u2019d be happier with smaller houses and cars and fewer electronic gadgets?  Fewer malls and more parks?  Less commuting and more gardening?  Less quantity and more quality?  <\/p>\n<p>I suspect it takes a few people trying it, and liking it, and talking about it.  Perhaps a loosely gathered group of people who can\u2019t agree on definitions but who mostly agree that the Earth is sacred and that Nature is good.  People who honor ancestors who lived happy lives without a ton of toys.  People who can see through the glamours of advertising and popular culture.  People who are awake.<\/p>\n<p>People who have enough, and the wisdom to recognize it. <\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s a link to an article from The Wall Street Journal titled \u201cA California Drought: Not Enough Children.\u201d It points out California\u2019s declining birth rate and immigration patterns (including state to state immigration, not just people from other countries) as a predictor of future problems. And it quotes Stephen Levy of the Center for Continuing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1129,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The End of Growth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here\u2019s a link to an article from The Wall Street Journal titled \u201cA California Drought: Not Enough Children.\u201d It points out California\u2019s declining birth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The End of Growth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here\u2019s a link to an article from The Wall Street Journal titled \u201cA California Drought: Not Enough Children.\u201d It points out California\u2019s declining birth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"John Beckett\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-01-15T18:53:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-QH-UjwDR5EM\/UPX4h1gdw3I\/AAAAAAAACak\/pHBr7UNQVsM\/s320\/Suburbia_by_David_Shankbone.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"John Beckett\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"John Beckett\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html\",\"name\":\"The End of Growth\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-01-15T18:53:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-01-15T18:53:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/#\/schema\/person\/b4c8980dc36f971434424c304ca429ad\"},\"description\":\"Here\u2019s a link to an article from The Wall Street Journal titled \u201cA California Drought: Not Enough Children.\u201d It points out California\u2019s declining birth\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2013\/01\/the-end-of-growth.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The End of Growth\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/\",\"name\":\"John Beckett\",\"description\":\"Musings of a Druid, Pagan, and Unitarian Universalist.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/#\/schema\/person\/b4c8980dc36f971434424c304ca429ad\",\"name\":\"John Beckett\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0f50bfa2a79f70103847fe75540bb29c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0f50bfa2a79f70103847fe75540bb29c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"John Beckett\"},\"description\":\"I grew up in Tennessee with the woods right outside my back door. 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