{"id":181,"date":"2011-12-03T13:14:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-03T13:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2011\/12\/climate-change-talk-action-and-myths\/"},"modified":"2011-12-03T13:14:00","modified_gmt":"2011-12-03T13:14:00","slug":"climate-change-talk-action-and-myths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2011\/12\/climate-change-talk-action-and-myths.html","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change: Talk, Action and Myths"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Crossposted with No Unsacred Place<\/a>. Check it out and read some of the other writers too!<\/i><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The United Nations Climate Change Conference<\/a> is meeting this week and next week in Durban, South Africa.\u00a0 The theme is \u201cWorking Together \u2013 Saving Tomorrow Today.\u201d\u00a0 That theme is far more optimistic than most observers of the conference.<\/div>\n
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The purpose of the conference is to begin negotiating a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 and expires in 2012.\u00a0 Here\u2019s a link to a 2007 article by the CBC<\/a> that does a better job of explaining Kyoto than I can \u2013 if you\u2019re not familiar with it, go read the CBC article and then come back.\u00a0 In short, the Kyoto Protocol was intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from their 1990 level and thereby avoid significant worldwide climate changes later this century.<\/div>\n
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Kyoto was on shaky political ground from the beginning.\u00a0 It exempted developing countries \u2013 most notably China and India \u2013 on the grounds that they couldn\u2019t afford pollution control measures and because they had contributed very little to the current situation.\u00a0 The United States refused to ratify it on grounds that it would put our economy at a disadvantage to our global competitors.\u00a0 Canada agreed but has done virtually nothing and is now talking about pulling out.\u00a0 Only Europe has taken any real action and they\u2019re refusing to go further unless everyone else does.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Are we going to do nothing of consequence?\u00a0 It certainly looks that way\u2026 but it doesn\u2019t have to be.<\/div>\n
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How We Accept or Reject Science<\/b><\/div>\n
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According to various sources, somewhere between 40% and 60% of the people in the United States reject the theory of evolution, despite the fact that the evidence for it is overwhelming.\u00a0 There are two main reasons why.<\/div>\n
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First, it doesn\u2019t match our subjective experience.\u00a0 We see dogs giving birth to dogs and tomato seeds producing tomatoes.\u00a0 We see the results of selective breeding, but in our predilection for simplistic classifications, we look at a Great Dane and a Pekingese and in both cases we see \u201cdog.\u201d\u00a0 What we\u2019re missing is \u201cdeep time<\/a>\u201d \u2013 the fact that the Earth isn\u2019t 6,000 years old but 4.3 billion years old.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Secondly, evolution doesn\u2019t match the myths \u2013 the orienting stories we live by \u2013 of most of the people in this country.\u00a0 The mythology of the dominant Abrahamic religions speak of God creating the world as it is now.\u00a0 Our pagan creation myths don\u2019t speak of evolution either, though some of them do hint at deep time.\u00a0 Our ancient ancestors \u2013 whether they were Celtic or Yoruba or Hebrew \u2013 simply had no way of knowing what we\u2019ve learned in the past two centuries.\u00a0 That\u2019s one of the reasons we need a new mythology<\/a> that reflects our understanding of the Universe.<\/div>\n
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We intuitively accept data and theories that are in alignment with our subjective experience and with our myths.\u00a0 We intuitively reject data and theories that contradict them.\u00a0 Some of us will reject them outright, but even those of us who will examine contrary arguments will look at them more skeptically than we would if they confirmed our experience and myths.<\/div>\n
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The Uncertainty of Science<\/b><\/div>\n
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Lower the temperature of a beaker of water and the water will freeze at 32\u00b0F.\u00a0 Apply heat to the beaker and the water will boil at 212\u00b0F.\u00a0 You can stick a thermometer in the beaker and watch it happen every time.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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These simple experiments help us understand the cause and effect relationships that are at the heart of science and the scientific method.\u00a0 But they are not proof<\/i>.\u00a0 They are evidence that support a theory \u2013 a set of propositions about the way Nature works.\u00a0 For simple experiments the difference between evidence and proof is so miniscule as to be irrelevant.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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The more complex the phenomena the harder it is to establish the cause and effect relationships and to separate correlation (X happens with Y) from causation (X happens because of Y).\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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In the case of climate change we have many variables:\u00a0 atmospheric composition, surface temperatures, ocean temperatures, ocean salinity, rainfall patterns, severe storm patterns, solar activity, human activity and many more.\u00a0 Analyzing the data and predicting future climate patterns is extremely complex.\u00a0 It is not intuitive, and it is not certain.\u00a0 The data supports the theory, but it does not prove the theory.<\/div>\n
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This is simply how science works.\u00a0 For decades the evidence has supported the theory that nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.\u00a0 Now we\u2019re seeing experiments indicating that some particles do in fact travel faster than light.\u00a0 It\u2019s still very early \u2013 perhaps the experiments will be shown to be in error.\u00a0 But if not, then the theory will be modified.\u00a0 This is science:\u00a0 hypotheses, experiments, analysis, theories, more experiments, and the refinement of theories.\u00a0 If you want certainty study mathematics.<\/div>\n
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The Climate Change Problem <\/b><\/div>\n
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The theory behind climate change is relatively simple:\u00a0 burning fossil fuels has increased the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.\u00a0 More greenhouse gasses mean more of the Sun\u2019s energy is retained\u00a0 in the Earth\u2019s surface and atmosphere.\u00a0 More retained solar energy means the planet gets warmer.\u00a0 A warmer planet means icecaps melt, seas rise, low-lying land is flooded, temperatures and rainfall patterns become more irregular.<\/div>\n
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Understanding weather \u2013 day to day observations \u2013 is hard enough.\u00a0 Understanding climate \u2013 long term patterns \u2013 is far more difficult.\u00a0 Like our ancestors who saw dogs giving birth to dogs and couldn\u2019t imagine they were the product of millions of years of evolution, we see that it\u2019s hot in the Summer and cold in the Winter, that some years are warmer and other years are cooler.\u00a0 The idea that the climate might be changing goes against our subjective observations.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Is the Earth\u2019s climate changing, beyond normal variation?\u00a0 The data and the theory \u2013 the set of propositions about the way Nature works \u2013 says it\u2019s almost certain.\u00a0 Is human activity causing this change, or at least, making it worse?\u00a0 It\u2019s extremely likely.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Will this change cause the calamitous events predicted by some?\u00a0 That\u2019s less certain, but it seems likely.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Will the burden of these events be borne primarily by the poor and by non-human species?\u00a0 They always are.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Uncertainty Is No Excuse For Inaction<\/b><\/div>\n
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We can\u2019t say for certain if Micronesia will be flooded, much less Florida.\u00a0 We can\u2019t say for certain if rain patterns will shift and turn the U.S. farm belt into a wasteland.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
But we can say this:\u00a0 pumping billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere every year isn\u2019t a good thing.\u00a0 Burning fossil fuels that took hundreds of millions of years to form at a rate that will deplete them in a couple hundred years (and maybe a lot sooner) isn\u2019t a good thing.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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And we can say that the mindless pursuit of more more more doesn\u2019t make us happier or healthier.<\/div>\n
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Uncertainty around the severity of climate change is no excuse to do nothing.<\/div>\n
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Our Evolutionary Instincts \u2013 Live For Today<\/b><\/div>\n
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Unfortunately, we have several million years of evolutionary instincts telling us to eat all we can and reproduce as much as we can because tomorrow we may die.\u00a0 We\u2019re like the rabbits in elementary school presentations on ecology:\u00a0 when most of our natural predators are removed, we consume more and more until we exceed the carrying capacity of our environment \u2013 at which point starvation ensues.<\/div>\n
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We have more intelligence than rabbits \u2013we can see where our actions are likely to take us.\u00a0 But frequently, we don\u2019t \u2013 Easter Island<\/a> stands as a clear example.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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Even if we could prove<\/i> that climate change is real, with severe consequences, and avoidable, most of us would still choose to continue living the way we\u2019ve always lived.\u00a0 Our instincts tell us to live for today. <\/div>\n
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To Change People\u2019s Decisions, Change Their Myths<\/b><\/div>\n
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If you accept the science around climate change, if you understand that uncertainty is no excuse for inaction, and if you understand that actions to mitigate climate change will be beneficial in and of themselves, then you understand that people \u2013 especially us here in the \u201cfirst world\u201d \u2013 need to change the way they live.<\/div>\n
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There are two ways to change people\u2019s actions.\u00a0 One is by force of law.\u00a0 Although leaders are supposed to lead, in a democracy (more or less) leaders who lead in a direction where a majority of people don\u2019t want to go will be quickly replaced.\u00a0 Further, unpopular laws tend to be ignored \u2013 see our own laws on recreational drugs.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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The other way to change people\u2019s actions is to change their myths.\u00a0 <\/div>\n
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If our myths tell us the Earth is sacred<\/a>, we are much more likely to live in ways that respect and sustain her.\u00a0 If our myths tell us all people are our brothers and sisters we are more likely to live in ways that do not harm them.\u00a0 If our myths tell us all living things came from a common ancestor we are more likely to live in ways that do not drive other species into extinction.<\/div>\n
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If our myths tell us we should strive to have \u201cenough\u201d instead of \u201cmore\u201d we are likely to live in ways that have less impact on the Earth, its climate, and its creatures.<\/div>\n
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I\u2019m glad the nations of the world are talking about climate change and I\u2019m glad they\u2019re proposing real actions to deal with it.\u00a0 I support those plans.\u00a0 But I have little confidence they will be implemented on a significant scale.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Our leaders will not solve this problem.\u00a0 Therefore it falls to us to solve the problem of climate change.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Can I tell you a story about our Mother the Earth?<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Crossposted with No Unsacred Place. Check it out and read some of the other writers too! The United Nations Climate Change Conference is meeting this week and next week in Durban, South Africa.\u00a0 The theme is \u201cWorking Together \u2013 Saving Tomorrow Today.\u201d\u00a0 That theme is far more optimistic than most observers of the conference. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1129,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nClimate Change: Talk, Action and Myths<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crossposted with No Unsacred Place. 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