Shortly after that, a novel virus began spreading in Wuhan, China, and the world hasn\u2019t been the same since.<\/p>\n
Over the past year I\u2019ve seen several people saying that now they understand why the 1920s were filled with such exuberance and whimsy. People had to deal with World War I (1914-1918) and then with the Spanish Flu pandemic (1918-1920). By the time all that was over they were ready to party.<\/p>\n
Many people are making similar plans for when the Covid-19 pandemic is over. Only they\u2019re not waiting for the pandemic to be over.<\/p>\n
Season 2 of the Roaring 20s is starting now, for better or for worse.<\/p>\n
Yes, the stock market is at record levels, but it\u2019s more than that. The real economy is booming too \u2013 so much so that inflation is now a concern. Here\u2019s an article from The Wall Street Journal<\/a><\/em> and another from the centrist think tank The Brookings Institution<\/a>. (TL;DR \u2013 this should be a short-term thing, not a repeat of the 1970s. I agree.)<\/p>\n I\u2019m seeing this in my paying job. Prices for copper, steel, and aluminum are way up, because demand is exceeding supply. Microprocessors are in very short supply, in part because of increased demand for electronics during the pandemic and in part due to Covid-related complication in supply chains. My employer\u2019s backlog of customer orders is at record levels \u2013 we can\u2019t build enough products fast enough to satisfy the market.<\/p>\n If you didn\u2019t lose your job in the lockdown, you\u2019re probably in better financial shape than you were a year ago. Here\u2019s an article from CNN<\/a> that begins \u201cconsumers around the world have amassed an extra $5.4 trillion in savings since the coronavirus pandemic began, setting the stage for a spending boom that could power a strong uplift in economic growth this year.\u201d<\/p>\n The boom is not helping everyone. Those on the margins are always the first to be let go and the last to be rehired. Many jobs lost in the lockdown are never coming back. The travel and hospitality industries are recovering, but won\u2019t be back to normal for months if not years. Live entertainment is still pretty much dead.<\/p>\n But many people do have money and they\u2019re ready to spend it.<\/p>\n The first Roaring 20s were great boom time\u2026 followed, of course, by the worst bust in modern history. Things are different this time, but how different? We will see\u2026<\/p>\n I\u2019m seeing lots of post-vaccination social media posts about plans for parties and such. Here\u2019s another CNN article<\/a>, this one on how Las Vegas is getting ready to be better than ever: \u201cthere\u2019s not only pent-up demand for travel, there\u2019s pent-up demand for the unrivaled Vegas experience \u2026 we anticipate visitation to Vegas growing stronger with each passing month.\u201d<\/p>\n Travel is my one extravagance. I spent a small fraction of what I normally spend on travel last year \u2013 my \u201cbig vacation\u201d was driving around Texas. Prices were cheap. Cathy and I are now fully vaccinated \u2013 we\u2019ve booked one big fly-away trip (still domestic, though) and one long weekend trip for this summer. Hotel and airline prices are pretty much back to pre-Covid levels, while rental cars are astronomical, if you can find one.<\/p>\n In Texas, restaurants and bars were allowed to open to capacity beginning March 10. Looking at the parking lots, they seem to be doing well. I\u2019m still socializing with the same \u201cpod\u201d we formed last year. Vaccinated or not I\u2019m still leery of being in indoor spaces with people I don\u2019t know. Clearly, many others aren\u2019t.<\/p>\n Will we see the kind of fun fashion and lively music we saw in the 1920s? It\u2019s too early to say, but I\u2019m betting we will. People are ready for something more than Spotify and sweatpants.<\/p>\n The commodities shortages are a world-wide thing, but the rest of the sources I\u2019ve cited are all American. Some parts of the world are still in full lockdown, while others are only partially open.<\/p>\n Further, the pandemic is in different stages in different places. As I write this, California and Texas are doing fairly well. Michigan is not. The UK is doing well \u2013 Canada is not. New Zealand has all but eliminated Covid, but they were helped by their remote location, and by their willingness to quarantine the islands. India is having a horrible second wave<\/a>.<\/p>\n Vaccine rollout is just beginning. Rich countries \u2013 especially the US \u2013 are putting themselves first<\/a>. It will be a very long time \u2013 if ever \u2013 before vaccines are widely available in poorer countries. And in some places, Covid is just one more complication in a daily struggle to survive.<\/p>\n So you may not be seeing the beginning of the Roaring 20s where you are. It may be weeks, or months, or perhaps years away from starting.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s coming.<\/p>\n The problem with getting the party started is that we\u2019re still in a pandemic. Numbers are better in many places and those numbers justify some \u2013 perhaps many \u2013 reopenings. They do not justify abandoning all precautions.<\/p>\n And let\u2019s face it \u2013 too many people have spent the last year denying that Covid is real, or arguing that it\u2019s no big deal. Or arguing that there\u2019s nothing we can do about it so we should just live our lives and whoever dies, dies.<\/p>\n Even among those of us who have taken it seriously, Covid fatigue is real. That\u2019s no excuse to drop the ball just before we get to the goal line.<\/p>\n It doesn\u2019t matter. The US is not going back into lockdown no matter how bad things get. As bad as things are in Michigan, the governor is only calling for \u201cvoluntary measures.\u201d Of course she is \u2013 there was a plot to kidnap and murder her over previous restrictions, and armed terrorists invaded the state capitol. The terrorists won.<\/p>\n For better or for worse, the Roaring 20s are starting and they\u2019re not going to stop until they\u2019re done.<\/p>\n The 1920s were a great time if you were young, white, and rich. If you weren\u2019t, they weren\u2019t so great.<\/p>\n The first 20s were the height of the KKK. Many of the Confederate statues we\u2019re arguing about today were erected during this period, as a way of reminding Black folks who was in charge. Derek Chauvin was convicted for murdering George Floyd but it took 8 minutes and 46 seconds of video to do it, and many people in this country would have voted to acquit anyway. Numerous states are attempting to disenfranchise poor voters<\/a>, a disproportionate number of whom are Black.<\/p>\n The 1920s brought Mussolini to power and gave Hitler his start. I trust no one thinks that just because Donald Trump is no longer in office the current fascist threat in the US is over. There are plenty more authoritarian nationalists doing their best to win his endorsement and the support of his base.<\/p>\n And nationalism and authoritarianism are not just a US problem. We\u2019re seeing it around the world \u2013 most of them voted into power in free elections.<\/p>\n Covid concerns notwithstanding, the boom and party aspects of the Roaring 20s are a good thing. The racist and fascist aspects are not.<\/p>\n It appears that once again we\u2019re getting both.<\/p>\n The first Roaring 20s came to an end on October 29, 1929 \u2013 \u201cBlack Tuesday.\u201d The stock market crashed and the Great Depression began.<\/p>\n The stock market crashed at the beginning of Covid. But it came back very quickly, because there was real wealth backing it that didn\u2019t disappear, and because even a do-nothing Republican administration realized that something had to be done.<\/p>\n Was it enough? Mostly no. Did it favor the very wealthy and leave the poor to fend for themselves? Mostly yes. Did it prevent even greater harm across the board? Yes.<\/p>\n Regardless of what happens with Covid, another crash is unlikely. That said, market corrections will happen. The overpriced housing market is a dangerous situation. The voter suppression, anti-trans, and anti-reproductive rights bills in many state legislatures are extremely dangerous.<\/p>\n And I don\u2019t even want to think about what will happen if the MAGA crowd finds its way back into power.<\/p>\n Nothing lasts forever. Not the bad times of the past few years, and not the good times (relatively speaking) that are starting now.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/243\/2021\/04\/Prairie-Creek-Falls-03.25.21-01-1024x536.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe economy is booming<\/h2>\n
People are ready to party<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/243\/2021\/04\/Las-Vegas-2019-102-1024x536.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nWhat\u2019s true in the U.S. isn\u2019t true of the rest of the world<\/h2>\n
Yes, it\u2019s too early<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/243\/2021\/04\/Prairie-Creek-Falls-03.25.21-03-1024x536.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Roaring 20s weren\u2019t all party<\/h2>\n
Another Black Tuesday is unlikely, but not impossible<\/h2>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/243\/2021\/04\/Prairie-Creek-Falls-03.25.21-04-1024x536.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nHistory rhymes \u2013 but poems can be rewritten<\/h2>\n