\u201cWe\u2019re all going to die anyway.\u201d<\/p>\n There are a lot of predictions about the future floating around the Pagan internet these days and most of them are unpleasant.\u00a0 Some of the predictions rise to the level of prophecies1<\/sup>.\u00a0 I made my case two weeks ago<\/a>:\u00a0 the Western lifestyle is based on cheap fossil fuels and they\u2019re running out.\u00a0 Collapse is inevitable even if it won\u2019t be particularly sudden.\u00a0 Once we get through the collapse I think our species will do just fine (though future generations will live very differently from the way we live), but others don\u2019t share my optimism.<\/p>\n All this speculation has a huge problem:\u00a0 it greatly oversimplifies extremely complex systems, factors, and trends.\u00a0 There\u2019s no way around that oversimplifying.\u00a0 Look at the trouble we\u2019ve had with climate modeling.\u00a0 Now try to add in how diverse groups of humans and other animals are going to respond to climate change and to each other.\u00a0 You end up with a calculation even a supercomputer couldn\u2019t perform, assuming we could create a complete and accurate model, which we can\u2019t.<\/p>\n So we oversimplify.\u00a0 Mostly that\u2019s OK \u2013 it gets us thinking about where our individual and collective choices are taking us and what we might want to do differently.<\/p>\n But sometimes that oversimplification causes us to overlook things that are very important \u2013 like our friends and allies.<\/p>\n P. Sufenas Virius Lupus wrote this very personal description of his situation<\/a>. \u00a0E is diabetic and without insulin E will die in a matter of days.\u00a0 Without the industrial infrastructure required to produce large amounts of highly consistent insulin on an on-going basis, Lupus \u2013 and several million people like em \u2013 can\u2019t continue to live.<\/p>\n Modern technology isn\u2019t necessary for humans to live happy and fulfilling lives, but what kind of life would Stephen Hawking have had without it?\u00a0 What contributions would he have made to human knowledge?<\/p>\n This doesn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t contemplate changes or that changes won\u2019t be thrust upon us \u2013 we can and they will.\u00a0 It does mean we need to be sensitive to the impact of those changes on everyone.\u00a0 It\u2019s one thing to appreciate the raw power of a tornado.\u00a0 Shouting \u201clook at that beauty go!\u201d while it\u2019s destroying people\u2019s homes is another matter.<\/p>\n Being a prophet is hard.\u00a0 Being a prophetic leader is even harder.<\/p>\n Prophets are easy to ignore, and prophets who predict bad things will be ignored.\u00a0 Most people\u2019s lives are hard enough without someone telling them they\u2019re about to get harder, even if they\u2019re telling the truth.\u00a0 Being a prophet is a rough life, which is probably why so many prophets try to avoid the call (see the biblical story of Jonah<\/a>).<\/p>\n Prophets\u2019 first responsibilities are to their Gods and to the integrity of the messages they carry.\u00a0 You simply can\u2019t sugarcoat what They tell you, whether your prophecies come through ecstatic possession or through careful observation of facts and trends.\u00a0 The prophet\u2019s responsibility is to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.\u00a0 The community\u2019s responsibility is to listen, to consider the implications of the prophecy, and to not shoot the messenger.<\/p>\n It\u2019s helpful to remember that prophecy isn\u2019t magic.\u00a0 Our words don\u2019t change the facts.\u00a0 Either Western society will retain the infrastructure and energy resources to produce insulin, or it won\u2019t.\u00a0 Our prophecies and predictions can\u2019t cause our insulin-dependent friends to die.\u00a0 But they can cause them to feel less valued.<\/p>\n When the oppressed fight among themselves, only the oppressor wins.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know who said that, but they were right.<\/p>\n The purpose of prophecy isn\u2019t to show how pious or how smart the prophet is. \u00a0If your motivation is to have someone find your blog or pick up your book 500 years in the future and say \u201cdamn, that guy really saw what was coming\u201d I think your priorities are out of whack.\u00a0 The purpose of prophecy \u2013 like the purpose of divination \u2013 is to show people what\u2019s coming so they can take action to make the future better, or at least less worse.<\/p>\n And that means just relaying the message isn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n For most of us, our image of a prophet comes from the Old Testament:\u00a0 a lone preacher calling on the people to repent and \u201clet justice roll down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream.\u201d\u00a0 Let\u2019s remember an important fact all my Sunday School teachers neglected to point out:\u00a0 they failed.\u00a0 Oh, they delivered their prophecies faithfully.\u00a0 But Israel didn\u2019t repent, didn\u2019t establish justice, and in 70 CE the Romans wiped their country off the map.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the difference between being a prophet and being a prophetic leader.\u00a0 Prophetic leaders don\u2019t just pass on messages from the Gods, they help bring their communities into alignment with those prophecies.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not enough to tell people what\u2019s wrong with the world.\u00a0 It\u2019s not enough to be the Ghost of Christmas Future and tell people all the bad things that are coming if we don\u2019t change our ways.\u00a0 This is the classical liberal error of political debate \u2013 thinking that if we could just get people to see the facts they\u2019d agree with us.\u00a0 But true Scrooges are rare.\u00a0 Most people \u2013 including most Pagans, liberals, and other supposedly intelligent and enlightened folks \u2013 find it far easier to pretend nothing is wrong or that nothing bad will happen to them than to actually deal with unpleasant reality.<\/p>\n If we want people to actually pay attention to the prophecies we receive and the observations we make, we can\u2019t just say \u201chere\u2019s what\u2019s going to happen.\u201d\u00a0 We also have to say \u201chere\u2019s what we can do with it\u201d and \u201chere\u2019s how it will be better for us \u2013 for all of us.\u201d<\/p>\n There are many people who, when faced with the inevitable end of the Western middle class lifestyle, say \u201cI hope I\u2019m dead by then.\u201d\u00a0 Think about what they\u2019re saying:\u00a0 without all the stuff we have, life wouldn\u2019t be worth living.\u00a0 What must their ancestors think of them?!\u00a0 The lives of our medieval, ancient, and prehistoric ancestors were meaningless because they didn\u2019t have cars, cell phones, and tropical fruits in the subarctic???<\/p>\n Those \u201cmeaningless lives lived in misery\u201d are why we still have all those stories about our ancestors and why we Pagans love to tell them.<\/p>\n If we live virtuously and heroically, if we love and care for our family and friends, and if we do what must be done to live as well as we can, we can have meaningful, successful, and happy lives under any circumstances.<\/p>\n To my friends who are prophets: if all you can do is tell us what\u2019s coming, then preach on. \u00a0You will have done us a service, and\u00a0you will have\u00a0fulfilled your obligation to your Gods. But the world needs prophetic leaders too.<\/p>\n The end of the contemporary Western lifestyle is coming \u2013 of that I am sure.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure when, or how, or to what extent.\u00a0 I suspect P. Sufenas Virius Lupus and the diabetics who come after em will have their insulin, though I\u2019m not sure exactly how and I could be wrong.\u00a0 There\u2019s a lot I don\u2019t know about the present, much less the future.\u00a0 Predicting the future isn\u2019t my calling.<\/p>\n My calling is to help teach and demonstrate the beliefs and practices that will be helpful both now and in the world to come<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"the](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/243\/2015\/04\/Las-Vegas-Strip-2015-300x225.jpg\")
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