{"id":5197,"date":"2016-06-26T14:30:27","date_gmt":"2016-06-26T20:30:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/?p=5197"},"modified":"2016-06-26T13:38:23","modified_gmt":"2016-06-26T19:38:23","slug":"today-brexit-tomorrow-president-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/johnbeckett\/2016\/06\/today-brexit-tomorrow-president-trump.html","title":{"rendered":"Today Brexit, Tomorrow President Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"the<\/a>
the UK flag flies over Edinburgh Castle \u2013 for now<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>

I had a nice Pagan post queued up for today and another outlined for Tuesday. Then I woke up Friday morning, turned on the TV, and saw Donald Trump in Scotland praising the UK\u2019s vote to leave the European Union. I heard some of his usual nativist rhetoric about \u201ctaking back the border\u201d and \u201cchoosing who you let come into your country.\u201d And I knew I had to write something else for today.<\/p>\n

As an American who occasionally travels to Europe, I was hoping Britain would stay in the EU. Britain never adopted the Euro, but intra-EU flights work like domestic flights. Crossing from Ireland into Northern Ireland was like crossing from Texas into Louisiana. That\u2019s nice, but it\u2019s something I don\u2019t have to deal with on a daily basis. But I\u2019m remembering the bus driver on our Dublin to Belfast trip, who talked about how his father lives in the Republic but does most of his shopping in the North. That will change, though how remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

Some UK citizens I respect voted to leave \u2013 they had valid reasons. The EU bureaucracy is bloated and their regulations can be absurd, even to a liberal like me who thinks most government regulations are necessary, if occasionally annoying. The EU is almost entirely unaccountable to the electorate. Their bullying of Greece was and is immoral. Many ordinary people feel like their government doesn\u2019t respect them or address their concerns and this was a chance to strike back.<\/p>\n

But what I heard most loudly coming from the UK was \u201cimmigration is out of control.\u201d And by \u201cimmigration\u201d they didn\u2019t mean white Americans and Australians who want to move back to \u201cthe old country.\u201d They meant brown and black people from Asia and Africa, many of whom are Muslims and\/or refugees.<\/p>\n

Never mind that immigrants add more to a country than they receive, in the UK and in the US. Never mind the fact that immigrants not only fill many low-level jobs, they also fill a shortage of medical and technical experts. Never mind the fact that some of these immigrants are fleeing war and oppression and have no place to go.<\/p>\n

The economy is bad and there\u2019s no indication it\u2019s going to get well any time soon, if ever. But rather than putting the blame where it belongs \u2013 on greedy executives, corrupt bankers, and idiot politicians \u2013 many people prefer to blame it on \u201cthem\u201d \u2013 people who don\u2019t look and sound and worship like everyone else. For centuries that meant Jews, but after the Holocaust a lot of people started thinking maybe they shouldn\u2019t blame everything on the Jews (though it hasn\u2019t stopped some). In the US, they moved on to Mexicans and Muslims.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump wants to build a wall on the border with Mexico and ban Muslims from immigrating to the US. A lot of people think that\u2019s a good idea, and they\u2019ll be voting in November<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\"One<\/a>
One side is Mexico, the other side is the United States. See the big difference? Me neither.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

We humans are tribal creatures. We have millions of years of evolution telling us to trust and support the people we know will trust and support us, and to be suspicious of everyone else. That worked fine when we were organized into small bands of hunter-gatherers where everybody knew everybody. As civilization (\u201cliving in cities\u201d) began, we had to learn to trust and support more people than we could know. And so we instinctively looked for markers of commonality: appearance, accent, and religious behaviors.<\/p>\n

As the world has become more connected and as we have continued the migratory practices we began even before\u00a0we became human, these markers have become less and less useful. But getting to know someone and finding out what kind of a person they are is a lot harder than saying \u201call Muslims are dangerous.\u201d Understanding the global economy and who really benefits from it is a lot harder than saying \u201cMexicans are taking our\u00a0jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n

As an aside, we need to develop strong tribes<\/a> to help us get through the coming bad times. But those tribes need not be based on ethnicity and must not become distrustful and hateful of other tribes.<\/p>\n

Ordinary people are angry and frustrated and rightly so. But too many are blaming their problems on an amorphous \u201cthem\u201d and too many politicians are more than willing to exploit that anger and frustration for their own benefit. Right wing parties are getting more and more votes throughout Europe and the US, and there\u2019s a desire for a strongman to put \u201cthem\u201d in their place. And there\u2019s no shortage of would-be strongmen.<\/p>\n

I have consistently underestimated Donald Trump. I thought he would fade once the primaries started \u2013 I was wrong. I thought the Republican elites would unify around an establishment candidate \u2013 I was wrong. I thought a drop-in candidate would orchestrate a floor revolt at the convention. The Republican National Convention is still three weeks away, but Bloomberg and Romney have both said they won\u2019t, and there\u2019s no indication anyone else will. Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for President because he\u2019s validating people\u2019s frustrations, both\u00a0legitimate and not.\u00a0I\u2019m not going to underestimate him again \u2013 there\u2019s a good chance he could win.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t have much of an alternative. Hillary Clinton is the epitome of an establishment candidate. She would nominate good judges and I wouldn\u2019t worry about her starting a war because someone made her mad, but she might very well start a war for the usual reasons. And she will continue to support the Wall Street establishment that is largely responsible for our current economic difficulties.<\/p>\n

Libertarian Gary Johnson has a chance to be a spoiler (though for who remains to be seen), or perhaps even a viable candidate. He was a Republican governor, and he\u2019ll look attractive to GOP types who can\u2019t stomach Trump. No third party candidate has won a single electoral vote since George Wallace ran on a segregationist platform in 1968. This year may be different\u2026 or not.<\/p>\n

As much as I\u2019m fond of Green Party positions, Jill Stein is not prepared to be President and has no chance of making a meaningful impact on the election. If you support the Green Party, run for office at the local level and build the party from the ground up. The same is true for the other minor party candidates.<\/p>\n

Regardless of who is elected in 2016,\u00a0if we as a society don\u2019t address the legitimate concerns of Trump voters, the 2020\u00a0Republican candidate could be even worse.<\/p>\n

Britain will eventually figure out how to handle life post-EU\u2026 though their economy will be hurt, and the United Kingdom may soon be united no more. A Donald Trump presidency, on the other hand, would be disastrous for the US and for the world. It would empower and embolden the nativists who want to blame all our problems on \u201cthem\u201d and further distract us from the real problems in our country. It would bring Supreme Court justices who will\u00a0overturn the rulings that brought us marriage equality, the decriminalization of same sex relations, and the right to an abortion. And it would be a non-stop international embarrassment that would make the days of George W. Bush look bright and cheery.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t think it can happen? Neither did the Brits who thought there was no way \u201cleave\u201d could win, including some who wanted to remain but voted leave \u201cjust to send a message.\u201d Today we have Brexit, in November we could have Donald Trump as President of the United States.<\/p>\n

I still don\u2019t know who I\u2019m voting for, but I am sure of one thing:<\/p>\n

#NeverTrump<\/p>\n

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