{"id":1000,"date":"2012-10-23T09:04:37","date_gmt":"2012-10-23T15:04:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/?p=1000"},"modified":"2012-10-23T09:04:37","modified_gmt":"2012-10-23T15:04:37","slug":"who-won-the-3rd-debate-my-election-predictions-at-2-weeks-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/10\/who-won-the-3rd-debate-my-election-predictions-at-2-weeks-out.html","title":{"rendered":"Who Won the 3rd Debate & My Election Predictions at 2 Weeks Out"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

In the final presidential debate both candidates performed well and made their best case. Mr. Romney accused the president of weak leadership. President Obama painted Romney as a flip-flopper whose opinions are all over the map.<\/p>\n

The early poll from CBS<\/a> said Obama: 53%, Romney 23%, a margin of victory which was slightly larger than the first debate win for Romney (46% to 22%). \u00a0Other polls suggest a similar margin. A Google poll<\/a> had it at 45\/35 to Obama.<\/p>\n

A key moment was a heated exchange around Romney\u2019s op-ed column for the New York Times with the headline \u201cLet Detroit Go Bankrupt<\/a>.\u201d The lead paragraph of the article reads, \u201cIf General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won\u2019t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.\u201d As Romney tried to walk the quote back, it played into Obama\u2019s strategy of calling Romney\u2019s position \u201call over the map.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where the president struggles in on the economy, and Romney made him pay. Much of the debate, which was meant to be entirely on foreign policy, was spent talking about the domestic economy, which is an issue Romney consistently wins on. A substantial section, 10-15 minutes in the second half of the debate was only marginally about foreign policy. It was clearly Romney\u2019s best inning.<\/p>\n

Some Republicans, especially the neo-cons, seem to be less than pleased with the debate result. David Frum, a powerful voice with the party and a Romney supporter tweeted last night, \u201cBottom Line: Romney did well. My friends who support Romney for hawkish reasons\u2026 maybe not so well.\u201d There seems to be a tacit agreement among the hard right and neo-cons that they\u2019ll allow Romney to run to the middle in order to win crucial undecided voters. That\u2019s how Romney was so effective in the first debate. Obama\u2019s strategy is to point out the inconsistency.<\/p>\n

THE GRAVITAS TEST<\/strong>
\nDebating foreign policy is about showing that a candidate has enough substance to be a world leader. Robert Reich called Romney a dithering-bully to Obama\u2019s Commander-in-chief. I don\u2019t think it was quite that pronounced, but the president is at an obviously advantage here. Romney struggled at times to come up with substantive statements and seemed to agree with Obama on nearly everything. At times he seemed like he was providing answers to a world history exam, trying to show he knew where things were. Romney\u2019s \u201cpath to the sea\u201d comment about Syria defies geography. Iran has over a 1000 miles of coastline. (The Daily Kos posted an article today<\/a> claiming that the line was a dog whistle to evangelicals\u2026 worth reading).<\/p>\n

Obama clearly won the debate, but it will hardly matter. For one thing, it was foreign policy and American\u2019s don\u2019t vote on that issue. For another thing, there was a baseball playoff game and Monday night football happening, so viewership is likely to be down. Lastly, this debate is mostly about appearing substantial, and Romney already passed the gravitas test in the first debate.<\/p>\n

WHERE ARE WE AT TWO WEEKS OUT?<\/strong>
\nThe race has tightened to be sure. Margin of victory for either side will be razor thin. Romney\u2019s first debate performance has given him the momentum in the race. That last night\u2019s debate win will allow President Obama to win back some of what he lost in the first debate is pretty unlikely. Still the D\u2019s have a decided electoral math advantage, and the Republican strategy of implementing new voter requirements (which would hurt the D\u2019s), has been decimated by the courts. What\u2019s going to happen?<\/p>\n

When it comes to electoral math, there\u2019s only one place to look: Five Thirty Eight blog<\/a>. Nate Silver is the best electoral prognosticator on the planet. As of this morning, Silver gives Obama a 70% chance of winning the election, Romney a 30% chance. His post-debate article says that if Obama can find a 1% bump in the polls from last night\u2019s debate, it would take a chance of an Obama victory to 80%. \u00a0Still, the polls have the race within the margin of error, and with Romney\u2019s momentum, and a perceived lack of enthusiasm among Democrats it is still too close to call.<\/p>\n

MY PREDICTIONS AS OF TODAY<\/strong>
\nThe race is already decided in all but a few battleground states.<\/p>\n