{"id":1023,"date":"2012-10-30T13:29:40","date_gmt":"2012-10-30T19:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/?p=1023"},"modified":"2012-10-30T13:39:22","modified_gmt":"2012-10-30T19:39:22","slug":"my-2012-election-predictions-at-one-week-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/10\/my-2012-election-predictions-at-one-week-out.html","title":{"rendered":"My 2012 Election Predictions at One Week Out"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"Content Director\u2019s Note<\/em><\/strong>: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos<\/a> feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following<\/a> for our new News and Politics Channel<\/a> \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. Please use hashtag #PatheosElection on Twitter.<\/em><\/p>\n

The dynamics of this election have not changed very much since last week\u2019s prediction<\/a>, but I think some things are becoming clearer.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
From 538 Blog<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Does Romney have momentum?<\/strong>
\nThe short answer is no. Obama\u2019s support peaked on or around October 3rd<\/sup><\/em> \u2013 the day before the first presidential debate after which Romney experience a sharp jump in support. The Romney campaign rode a pretty good wave of momentum for a little over a week (about the time of the debate between Biden and Ryan). Romney\u2019s support peaked on or around October 12th<\/sup><\/em>. Since that time Obama support has crept back up, perhaps as much as one point nationally and things returned to where they have been since early June. But none of this matters.<\/p>\n

Probability goes with Obama. Voter turnout goes with Romney.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong>
\nIgnore the national polls. They tell you nothing. National polling of likely voters doesn\u2019t tell you anything either. All that matters is the Electoral College, which means the race comes down to Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, \u00a0and Ohio. If the states break the way they are currently trending in state-wide polls, then the two biggest factors will be are Ohio and Virginia \u2013 probably in that order. Silver\u2019s model looks not at poll numbers, but at probabilities, which is the only way to get some separation in a really tight race such as this one. The over\/under in the diagram above looks to cut between Virginia and Florida.<\/p>\n

Good News \/ Bad News<\/strong><\/p>\n

Good news for Romney<\/span>: 1) things in Ohio look to be tightening, and 2) his base is much more enthused. This ensures a both a good voter turnout on Election Day and affords Romney the ability to keep running to the center.<\/p>\n

Bad news for Romney<\/span>: Romney failed to build on the momentum of the first debate and even at his peak date (Oct. 4th<\/sup>), his only path to victory goes through Ohio where he trails slightly.<\/p>\n

Good news for Obama<\/span>: The electoral math is much easier for the president. Even with Romney trending in Ohio, 538 Blog gives Obama a 73% chance there. If Romney can find a way to win Ohio, Obama is still doing well in Virginia (58%), and has several other paths to 270.<\/p>\n

Bad news for Obama<\/span>: Obama still lags in the enthusiasm category. His base is not even close to as fired up as they were in 2008. Women voters who vote in economic issues are leaning Romney, and the challenger seem most likely to win the turnout war.<\/p>\n

The Prognosticators<\/strong>
\nVoter Turnout still looks to be the key. This pits pro-Romney\/con-Obama enthusiasts against Obama\u2019s potent get out the vote machine. Real Clear Politics<\/a> has Romney ahead, based on their practice of averaging different polls (which can be dubious), and giving the turnout edge to Romney.<\/p>\n

538 Blog<\/a> is still the place to look to, in my opinion, because Nate Silver\u2019s model is the best. He predicted all but one state correctly in 2008, and did very well in the 2010 mid-term elections as well. Although, Dylan Byers gave a pretty scathing attempt at a take-down<\/a> this week at Politico, with some interesting facts, Byers failed to give a viable alternative to 538. As of today, Silver gives Obama the edge at 72.9% chance of winning, down today from 74.4% yesterday, and Romney a 27.1% chance of winning. Intrade calls the race at 63%\/37%.<\/p>\n

I think the most likely scenario continues to be:<\/span>
\nRomney gets<\/strong>: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa \/\/ 263 Electoral<\/strong> Votes<\/strong>
\nObama gets<\/strong>: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio \/\/ 275 Electoral Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n

2<\/span>nd<\/sup> most likely scenario:<\/span>
\nWith the above scenario all you have to do is flip Ohio and Romney wins fairly big.
\nRomney gets<\/strong>: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio \/\/ 281 Electoral<\/strong> Votes<\/strong>
\nObama gets<\/strong>: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio \/\/ 257 Electoral Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you go on 538\u2019s straight up statistical probabilities the race goes:<\/span>
\nRomney<\/strong>: Florida\/\/248 Electoral Votes<\/strong>
\nObama<\/strong>: Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Ohio\/\/ 290 Electoral Votes<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Content Director\u2019s Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following for our new News and Politics Channel \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1118,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[137,115,48,46,136,149],"class_list":["post-1023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-538-blog","tag-barack-obama","tag-election-2012","tag-mitt-romney","tag-nate-silver","tag-prediction"],"yoast_head":"\nMy 2012 Election Predictions at One Week Out<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Content Director's Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. 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