{"id":1035,"date":"2012-11-01T08:20:09","date_gmt":"2012-11-01T14:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/?p=1035"},"modified":"2012-11-01T08:21:19","modified_gmt":"2012-11-01T14:21:19","slug":"my-2012-election-predictions-5-days-out-sandy-ruined-romneys-end-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/11\/my-2012-election-predictions-5-days-out-sandy-ruined-romneys-end-game.html","title":{"rendered":"My 2012 Election Predictions 5 Days Out: Sandy Ruined Romney\u2019s End Game"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"Content Director\u2019s Note<\/em><\/strong>: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos<\/a> feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following<\/a> for our new News and Politics Channel<\/a> \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. Please use hashtag #PatheosElection on Twitter.<\/em>
\nAs of this morning, it seems as though the election has broken Barak Obama\u2019s way.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve heard it suggested that the loser in this election will blame Sandy. If Romney loses, I think he will have a point. If Obama loses he\u2019ll have plenty of other things on which to blame the loss. If Romney loses, he can at least say in all truthfulness that Hurricane Sandy foiled his final hope.<\/p>\n

During the final week of this election Romney had to sell the country on his message: we need stronger leadership in the White House. The only problem is that Barack Obama is showing strong leadership during a serious natural disaster for much of the Northeast. Events on the ground fly in the face of the narrative on which Romney staked his campaign and Barack is making his best counter argument without so much as holding a campaign rally. Romney needed to be able to spend the final week making his case that Barack Obama is a weak leader. Instead, Obama has stopped campaigning and is demonstrating strong leadership (even in the opinion of Chris Christie, who is not doing his \u201cpal\u201d Romney any favors this week). Right now it looks like a death blow for Romney\u2019s chances.<\/p>\n

The best evidence that Obama has a good lead is that Fox News has the race a tie. The best evidence that it\u2019s still going to be extremely close is that Huffington Post only has Obama at 277 sure electoral votes. The Obama lead is three \u2013 nearly outside the margin of error \u2013 in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Obama has a 2 point lead in New Hampshire and it\u2019s a dead heat in Virginia and Florida. Romney would have to win Florida and Virginia, plus find a way to steal Ohio and Iowa if he were to have a chance.<\/p>\n

Nate Silver at the 538 Blog<\/a> \u2013 still the best prognosticator in this cycle \u2013 has been consistently upping Obama\u2019s probability of a win. As of this morning, Silver gives Obama a 79% chance of winning, and Romney a 21% chance.<\/p>\n

Drew Linzer at Votamatic<\/a> says that there would need to be a systematic problem with all of the polling data for Romney to pull this one out. Linzer says that systematic polling issues would mean that \u201cmost \u2013 or even all \u2013 of the polls have been consistently biased in Obama\u2019s favor. If this is happening, we\u2019ll have no way to know until Election Day. (Of course, it\u2019s just as likely that the polls are systematically\u00a0underestimating<\/em>\u00a0Obama\u2019s vote share, but then Democrats have even less to be worried about.)\u201d As of this morning Linzer is forecasting an Obama landslide, with 332 electoral votes.<\/p>\n

Polltracker has Obama 3 percentage points ahead in Ohio, and has Obama with a slight lead overall. The Princeton Election Consortium<\/a> breaks it down this way:<\/p>\n

\u201cHere at the Princeton Election Consortium, the Meta-Analysis of state polls points toward an Obama electoral victory. The median outcome is Obama 308, Romney 230 EV, with a\u00a0Meta-Margin of Obama +2.4%+\/-0.5%<\/strong>. To put it into plain English:\u00a0If state polls are accurate on the whole, then Obama will win.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Content Director\u2019s Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following for our new News and Politics Channel \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1118,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[137,115,48,46,136,149],"class_list":["post-1035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-538-blog","tag-barack-obama","tag-election-2012","tag-mitt-romney","tag-nate-silver","tag-prediction"],"yoast_head":"\nMy 2012 Election Predictions 5 Days Out: Sandy Ruined Romney\u2019s End Game<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Content Director's Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. 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