{"id":1039,"date":"2012-11-02T07:55:00","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T13:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/?p=1039"},"modified":"2012-11-02T07:55:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-02T13:55:00","slug":"my-2012-election-predictions-4-days-out-obama-hatred-v-slow-steady-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/11\/my-2012-election-predictions-4-days-out-obama-hatred-v-slow-steady-progress.html","title":{"rendered":"My 2012 Election Predictions 4 Days Out: Obama Hatred v. Slow Steady Progress"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"Content Director\u2019s Note<\/em><\/strong>: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos<\/a> feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following<\/a> for our new News and Politics Channel<\/a> \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. Please use hashtag #PatheosElection on Twitter.<\/em><\/p>\n

(Follow Tim Suttle on Twitter at: @Tim_Suttle<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Where is the Presidential Race Right Now?<\/strong>
\nAs I wrote a couple of days ago<\/a>, Romney\u2019s momentum is gone. His peak for support, in terms of polling, was on or around October 12th<\/sup>. Since that time, President Obama has continued to build his advantage in the polls, especially in the state-wide polling data, and especially in key swing states like Iowa \u00a0and Ohio. Nate Silver\u2019s 538 Blog<\/a> is the best model. Instead of picking a winner, Silver gives probabilities for winning the election. As of today, Silver gives Obama an 81% chance of winning, Romney 19%. In the major polls released or updated yesterday, not a single one gave Romney the advantage in Ohio. Only one poll gave him an advantage in either Virginia or Iowa. Florida is the only good news for camp Romney where it looks as though Obama is trailing.<\/p>\n

When the polls spit out the same numbers day after day, polling agency upon polling agency, it\u2019s time to stop thinking about margin of error. Obama has what Silver dubbed an electoral college \u201cfirewall,\u201d Romney hasn\u2019t been able to crack. Obama is running 2-3 points ahead of his national average in state polling. Ohio, in particular, has not changed in the past few days as the wide cross-section of polls are begin to resemble one another more closely.<\/p>\n

So, minds are made up. The election is no longer about convincing people, it\u2019s about getting out the vote. Here it is strength against strength.<\/p>\n