column<\/a>\u00a0describes why the Tea Party has caused Republicans to lose elections that seemed well within their grasp.\u201d If Romney loses the race, Frum believes the reason will be simple: \u201cThe Tea Party struck again.\u201d<\/p>\nFrum is a mainstream Republican who blames the Tea Party element of the GOP for messing up what should have been some \u201csure thing\u201d races in the House and Senate, not to mention the presidency. From Todd Akin, to Richard Mourdock, to Indiana\u2019s ouster of Dick Lugar (he would have been an easy win for the GOP but lost a primary challenge to a Tea Party candidate), Frum is wondering when the GOP mainstream will wake up to the idea that the GOP has been hijacked by the far right. Frum\u2019s predictions of the House and Senate races are in line with what 538 Blog has, but it\u2019s the interpretation of the data that I find so interesting.<\/p>\n
HOUSE<\/strong>: Frum writes, \u201cMost House-watchers expect the Republicans to lose seats, but not enough to forfeit control. The mid-range scenario projects losses of between seven and 11 for the GOP. Losses on that scale would not jeopardize Republican control. They would, however, imply the defeat of almost all the more moderate conservatives in the Republican caucus. If Barack Obama wins re-election, he\u2019ll meet a House even more hostile and intransigent than the House that nearly pushed the United States into default on its obligations in the summer of 2011.\u201d<\/p>\nSENATE<\/strong>: Frum writes, \u201cThe Senate outlook is even grimmer for Republicans. Earlier in the year, Republicans hoped they might win both the presidency and the Senate, restoring their post-9\/11 united control of all three elected branches of government. Now it seems more probable that the Democrats will expand their Senate majority, most likely by picking up Republican held Senate seats in Massachusetts and Indiana, and holding once seemingly vulnerable Democratic seats in Virginia and Missouri.\u201d<\/p>\nHave you decided who you are voting for yet? I\u2019m still a bit on the fence. Pondering not voting for either major candidate this year, or writing in \u201cJesus.\u201d I live in Kansas so my vote doesn\u2019t matter anyway. Romney will win big in the Sunflower State.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Content Director\u2019s Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following for our new News and Politics Channel \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1118,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[137,115,154,150,158,48,46,136,155,149,157,156],"class_list":["post-1042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-538-blog","tag-barack-obama","tag-daily-beast","tag-david-frum","tag-dick-lugar","tag-election-2012","tag-mitt-romney","tag-nate-silver","tag-national-post","tag-prediction","tag-richard-mourdock","tag-todd-akin"],"yoast_head":"\n
2012 Election Predictions at 3 Days Out - Presidential Race, House, Senate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Content Director's Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. Patheos was designed to present the world's most compelling\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/11\/2012-election-predictions-at-3-days-out-presidential-race-house-senate.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2012 Election Predictions at 3 Days Out - Presidential Race, House, Senate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Content Director's Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. 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![\"\"](\"https:\/\/media.patheos.com\/Images\/PC\/Election2012Vote_bio.jpg\" "\\"ElectionMonthatPatheos\\"")
Content Director\u2019s Note<\/em><\/strong>: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos<\/a> feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following<\/a> for our new News and Politics Channel<\/a> \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. Please use hashtag #PatheosElection on Twitter.<\/em>![\"\"](\"https:\/\/wp-media.patheos.com\/blogs\/sites\/230\/2012\/11\/02.jpg\" "\\"02\\"")
<\/a>PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/strong>: Nate Silver\u2019s 538 Blog<\/em> at The New York Times<\/em> has the probability of an Obama re-election at 83.7% this morning, with Romney\u2019s probability at 16.3%. You have to remember that this is probability, not a prediction. Still, the odds are getting longer with every new poll. Silver says<\/a>, \u201cFor Romney to win the state polls must be statistically biased.\u201d I typically try and wash all positive news for any single candidate by looking at the extremists from the other side. For instance, polling looks good for Obama this past week, so I looked to see what Dick Morris is saying. Morris\u2019s headline this morning says, \u201cSudden Danger Signs in Polling<\/a>\u201c. Morris is still predicting a win, but it\u2019s a decent barometer.<\/p>\n