{"id":1052,"date":"2012-11-05T06:52:05","date_gmt":"2012-11-05T13:52:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/?p=1052"},"modified":"2012-11-05T06:56:14","modified_gmt":"2012-11-05T13:56:14","slug":"2012-election-predictions-24-hours-out-3-ways-to-know-your-side-is-going-to-lose","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/paperbacktheology\/2012\/11\/2012-election-predictions-24-hours-out-3-ways-to-know-your-side-is-going-to-lose.html","title":{"rendered":"2012 Election Predictions 24 Hours Out \u2013 3 Ways To Know Your Side is Going to Lose"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"Content Director\u2019s Note<\/em><\/strong>: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos<\/a> feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following<\/a> for our new News and Politics Channel<\/a> \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. Please use hashtag #PatheosElection on Twitter.<\/em><\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been inundated with comments and emails telling me that Nate Silver at the 538 Blog<\/a> is crazy and he will be out of a job soon after he blows his predictions and analysis of this presidential election. I still think Silver is an interesting source. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n

I started reading Silver\u2019s blog during the 2008 and 2010 elections and have paid more attention to him this election season than any other polling site. He called all but one state correctly in 2008, and did nearly as well in 2010. He\u2019s tirelessly anal retentive and weighs more factors than just polling data in his model. Most importantly, I follow Silver because he\u2019s not an ideologue. He\u2019s a math nerd \u2013 a statistics guy. The guy was a professional gambler at one point. He doesn\u2019t care who wins, but his is neurotically obsessed with getting the analysis down perfectly in order to give the most accurate probabilities. That\u2019s another important aspect of Silver\u2019s model. He doesn\u2019t give predictions, he gives probabilities. He\u2019s not banking on polls being right or wrong, so much as he\u2019s banking on his own ability (via his statistical model), to interpret polling data over time.<\/p>\n

Silver consistently demonstrates that he understands all of the polls, how they are conducted, what their bias is, what they tell you, and most importantly what they don\u2019t tell you, and thereby how to weight the polls and put them together in an accurate probability structure. The New York Times <\/em>(who purchased his blog), seems to have stayed out of his way in terms of editorial pressure. They\u2019ve allowed him to just crunch his numbers and keep progressing with his model.<\/p>\n

Right now 538 Blog gives President Obama an 85.5% chance of winning. He gives Romney a 14.5% chance of winning.<\/p>\n

Three Ways to Know Your Side is Going to Lose<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though Romney trails in most of the battle ground states, especially in Ohio, his supporters continue to predict a victory. However, a few chinks in the armor are beginning to appear. Republican Strategist Matthew Dowd told ABC News<\/a>,<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery time you feel a losing campaign, these three things happen. \u00a0The first<\/strong> thing happens is, \u201cdon\u2019t believe \u2014 the public polls are wrong.\u201d \u00a0That\u2019s the first sign of a campaign that\u2019s about to lose. \u00a0The second<\/strong> thing, we\u2019re going to change the nature of the electorate, and you\u2019re not seeing it reflected in the polls. \u00a0And the third<\/strong> thing is, the only poll that counts is Election Day. \u00a0When you hear those things, you know you\u2019re about to lose.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I hear every one of those coming from right wing pundits right now, as well as from my right leaning friends. They predict that the polls are wrong, that the electorate has switched on Obama, and of course \u201cThe only poll that counts is on election day.\u201d It\u2019s not that this is untrue, of course, so much as that you only say it when you are about to lose.<\/p>\n

Although the race is still in the too close to call category, it\u2019s looking more and more like Obama will coast to a reasonably comfortable electoral win on election day. Based on Silver\u2019s analysis, I\u2019ve changed one prediction. I thought Romney would carry Iowa, but I am now thinking it looks like Obama will squeak by in Iowa. Here\u2019s how I think the map will end up on election night.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What\u2019s your map look like? Tell me which states you think will flip Romney\u2019s way or Obama\u2019s way.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Content Director\u2019s Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. Patheos was designed to present the world\u2019s most compelling conversations on life\u2019s most important questions. Please join the Facebook following for our new News and Politics Channel \u2014 and check back throughout the month for more commentary on Election 2012. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1118,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[23,137,159,115,160,46,136],"class_list":["post-1052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-2012-election","tag-538-blog","tag-abc-news","tag-barack-obama","tag-matthew-dowd","tag-mitt-romney","tag-nate-silver"],"yoast_head":"\n2012 Election Predictions 24 Hours Out \u2013 3 Ways To Know Your Side is Going to Lose<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Content Director's Note: This post is a part of our Election Month at Patheos feature. 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