{"id":56,"date":"2010-10-05T13:03:23","date_gmt":"2010-10-05T17:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/community\/philosophicalfragments\/?p=56"},"modified":"2010-10-05T13:03:23","modified_gmt":"2010-10-05T17:03:23","slug":"why-do-the-young-support-obama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/philosophicalfragments\/2010\/10\/05\/why-do-the-young-support-obama\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Do the Young Support Obama?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

In yesterday\u2019s post<\/a> I mentioned a recent Gallup poll<\/a> that supplies helpful details on those who support Obama and those who do not \u2014 and I examined whether the results are evidence that blacks approve of the President because of the color of his skin. \u00a0Today I want to consider a different issue \u2013 why the young approve of Obama. \u00a0Here are the results of the survey:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Since the results are jumbled together, let\u2019s pull them out according to category:<\/p>\n

AGE:<\/strong> 18- to 29-year-olds at 57%, 30- to 49-year-olds at 45%, 50- to 64-year-olds at 44%, and 65-year-olds and above at 35%<\/span>.<\/p>\n

INCOME: <\/strong>Monthly income under $2000 at 51%, from $2000-$4999 at 45%, from $7500 and above at 44%, from $5000-$7499 at 43%<\/span>.<\/p>\n

EDUCATION<\/strong>: Post-graduate education at 53%<\/span>, college graduate only at 46%, some college 45%, high school or less at 42%.<\/p>\n

POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY: <\/strong>Liberal at 75%, moderate at 54%<\/span>, and conservative at 23%.<\/p>\n

PARTY AFFILIATION: <\/strong>Democrat at 79%, Independent at 40%<\/span>, and Republican at 12%.<\/p>\n

GEOGRAPHY: <\/strong>East 52%, West and Midwest 45%, South at 41%.<\/p>\n

GENERAL DEMOGRAPHIC: <\/strong>Unmarried: 53%, Women: 47%, Men 43%, Married 39%<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Apart (predictably) from minorities, Democrats and liberals, two of the demographic groups with the highest rate of approval are young voters (18-29 years old) and those with postgraduate degrees, at 57% and 53% respectively. \u00a0There are two questions here:<\/p>\n

(1) Does the higher support for Obama amongst younger voters reflects a generational <\/em>difference (the younger generation is, and will remain, basically different from the older generation, maintaining its more liberal predilections) or an aging <\/em>difference (this younger generation, like those before it, will grow more conservative as it ages)?<\/p>\n

(2) What should we make of the fact that those with a post-graduate education support Obama at a higher rate (not particularly high, at 53%, but 8 points higher than the average) than those with only an undergraduate degree? Does this reflect on the intelligence of the voter <\/em>(the more intelligent better understand Obama and why his policies are best) or the ideology of the universities<\/em> (those with postgraduate education are more exposed to the prevailing liberal ideology in academia)?<\/p>\n

I will discuss the second question tomorrow. \u00a0As to the first, it would certainly be good news for Democrats \u2014 and terrible news for Republicans \u2014 if the higher rates of approval amongst younger voters indicated some sort of sea change. \u00a0Perhaps those who are young now have gotten wise to the ways of conservatives and Republicans, and they will maintain their strong predilection for liberals and Democrats as they age. \u00a0Perhaps the experiences of the Clinton and Bush presidencies have left a \u201cgenerational imprint<\/a>\u201d that will keep them more liberal over the whole of their lives. \u00a0In 1987, about 50% of those over 65 \u2014 the \u201cgreatest generation,\u201d who had lived through the Great Depression and World War II \u2014 called themselves conservative. \u00a0Only 30-31% of those over 65 now \u2014 Baby Boomers, who came of age through the sixties and seventies \u2014 call themselves conservative. \u00a0So, the collective experiences of a generation matter, and the ways in which they have come, together, to interpret those experiences.<\/p>\n

However, it is generally true that voters grow more conservative as they age on a host of issues. \u00a0The \u201clife-stage hypothesis\u201d claims that voters grow more conservative when they marry and have children, and have a stake in the present order of things \u2014 and then again when they begin to consider, plan for, and enjoy their retirement. \u00a0Thus surveys have consistently shown older generations to be more conservative than the younger. \u00a0Also, an interesting survey by Zogby poll in July 2009 asked people whether they believe they\u2019ve grown more liberal or more conservative. \u00a0Here are the results:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If the respondents are accurate in their self-assessments (and there\u2019s no good reason to doubt their word in this case), a fairly high number (around 37%) believe throughout their twenties that aging has made them more liberal. \u00a0But around 30, at the age when many are married and having children, that number begins a long slide, and by their forties about 50% of the respondents report becoming more conservative. \u00a0There is a slight curve back in the other direction around age 65, but this may just reflect the generational imprint upon Baby Boomers.<\/p>\n

This is parallel to the question, important in Christian circles, of whether young people attending church at lower rates spells doom for the church, or whether their habits will change as they age, marry, raise children, search for meaning beyond their work, and contemplate their mortality. \u00a0In this case too, the evidence is strong that we are witnessing a life-stage effect. \u00a0As Rodney Stark said in our recent interview, younger folks have always<\/em>, for as long as we have had data, gone to church at lower rates. \u00a0Many people eventually stop partying on Saturday nights, decide to raise their children in the embrace of the church, and find that the church presents a compelling vision of our lives and their meaning.<\/p>\n

The life-stage hypothesis can be spun two ways. \u00a0Perhaps the young, not encumbered by the weight of tradition, not swayed by selfish concerns over their own property and their retirement and college savings funds, have a clearer vision of reality. \u00a0Or maybe the older have seen that the carefree days of their youth included some rather naive and impractical ideas. \u00a0In my view, responsibility and real-world experience tend to sharpen, not distort, our perceptions of what is true and what is important.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow I will consider why those with post-graduate degrees tend to support Obama at a higher rate \u2014 not a spectacularly high rate, just 53% right now, but higher than the average and worth understanding. \u00a0Is this a compliment to Obama and liberals in general, that the more intelligent \u201cget\u201d that they are right? \u00a0Or is this more a reflection of the ideology that pervades the American universities, in particular the humanities and social sciences?<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In yesterday\u2019s post I mentioned a recent Gallup poll that supplies helpful details on those who support Obama and those who do not \u2014 and I examined whether the results are evidence that blacks approve of the President because of the color of his skin. \u00a0Today I want to consider a different issue \u2013 why […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-obama-presidency"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Do the Young Support Obama? - Philosophical Fragments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In yesterday's post I mentioned a recent Gallup poll that supplies helpful details on those who support Obama and those who do not -- and I examined\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/philosophicalfragments\/2010\/10\/05\/why-do-the-young-support-obama\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Do the Young Support Obama? 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