{"id":97,"date":"2010-10-26T13:56:10","date_gmt":"2010-10-26T17:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/community\/philosophicalfragments\/?p=97"},"modified":"2010-10-26T13:56:10","modified_gmt":"2010-10-26T17:56:10","slug":"publication-bias-and-a-pact-between-you-and-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/philosophicalfragments\/2010\/10\/26\/publication-bias-and-a-pact-between-you-and-me\/","title":{"rendered":"Publication Bias – And A Pact Between You and Me"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

In retrospect, the vote for Obama did not reflect, as some<\/a> supposed, the advent of a permanent Democratic majority<\/a>.\u00a0 Some studies<\/a> had suggested that demographic changes would lead to increasing conservative irrelevance. The Elephant was growing smaller by the day, and the Donkey ever larger.<\/p>\n

Of course, after Bush\u2019s re-election in 2004, it was conservatives themselves who were touting (and Karl Rove<\/a> was attempting to orchestrate) a permanent conservative majority.\u00a0 But the tide began to change as the Bush administration was increasingly bogged down in the Iraq war, and was perceived to have fumbled Katrina.\u00a0 In 2002, 43% of the American public identified or leaned Republican, and an even 43% identified or leaned towards Democratic. This was in contrast to the twentieth century generally, when the Democrats held a sizable advantage in party affiliation.\u00a0 By 2007, however, 50% affiliated with the Democrats and only 35% with Republicans. Coupled with the growing Hispanic population, and higher rates of Democratic affiliation amongst the young, things certainly appeared grim for the Republicans.<\/p>\n

Now, those who heralded our \u201cnationwide left turn,\u201d led by independents, look about as silly as the Republicans who heralded a permanent Republican majority.\u00a0 Obama had his own Katrina moment in the Deepwater Horizon spill, and his management of the economic crisis is under severe criticism. The Democrats are poised for a defeat of historic proportions.\u00a0 Now we see articles with names like, \u201c\u2018Permanent Democratic Majority\u2019 Begins to Unravel<\/a>,\u201d and party affiliation is about equal again, or slightly favors Republicans.\u00a0 And the young may grow more conservative as they age, and blacks and Hispanics may grow more conservative as they gain more and more of the American dream \u2014 and have more to lose from change.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s nothing underhanded in seeking permanent majority status.\u00a0 If you believe in your party\u2019s principles, it\u2019s natural to want to see those principles put into action over the long term.<\/p>\n

But why are we prone to such overstatements?\u00a0 Presumably wishful thinking is part of it.\u00a0 Poor interpretations of data.\u00a0 And then there\u2019s what I like to call the Publication Bias.\u00a0 Whether it\u2019s newspapers or periodicals or academic journals, you learn eventually that they\u2019re more likely to publish you if you make dramatic claims.\u00a0 The problem is endemic to academia.\u00a0 Strong, careful, well-reasoned articles are less likely to get attention, if they do not much depart from arguments that have been made before.\u00a0 Especially when it comes to media attention, new, innovative, cutting-edge, sensationalized theories are far more likely to be published, or to receive lurid coverage in the popular magazines, even if they are almost certainly wrong.\u00a0 And there is a certain value to pushing the boundaries.\u00a0 But when you can write more popular dissertations and books and help your career more by making spectacular claims, then there is an inevitable drift away from solid, well-grounded but well-known theories, and academic consensus can wander around from one fashionable theory to another.\u00a0 When it comes to the Bible, for instance, you gain nothing by saying the Bible is simply what the Church has always believed it is, but you gain a lot by proposing more and more ingenious theories of multiple authors and multiple layers of editing.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a similar pressure in blogging and publishing articles and columns on politics.\u00a0 If you write at a major newspaper or website, then you don\u2019t need to promote your articles.\u00a0 The audience comes to you.\u00a0 But if you need to rally your own audience, you need other websites that will promote your writing with links.<\/p>\n

And here\u2019s the problem: Promotion is partisan<\/em>.\u00a0 If you write a neutral, balanced piece, one that does not tell one side or the other what it wants to hear, then who is going to promote the piece?\u00a0 How are you going to get the links at the major blogs and websites?\u00a0 It can be done, but it\u2019s tough.\u00a0 And you face the same problem in other media.\u00a0 I have only been interviewed on the radio a few times now, but I felt, on both occasions, an unspoken pressure (from myself!) to speak in dramatic terms, simply in order to make for interesting radio.\u00a0 Same thing when I was interviewed, back in my gymnastics days, for television.<\/p>\n

I hope that those who read this blog will hold me accountable.\u00a0 I don\u2019t conceal the fact that my political sensibilities are generally conservative.\u00a0 However, if you ever believe that I\u2019m saying something just to be dramatic, or just to tell one audience what it wants to hear, or just to get links at the big conservative blogs, you are welcome to let me know.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In retrospect, the vote for Obama did not reflect, as some supposed, the advent of a permanent Democratic majority.\u00a0 Some studies had suggested that demographic changes would lead to increasing conservative irrelevance. The Elephant was growing smaller by the day, and the Donkey ever larger. Of course, after Bush\u2019s re-election in 2004, it was conservatives […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-97","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-christian-approach-to-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nPublication Bias - And A Pact Between You and Me - Philosophical Fragments<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In retrospect, the vote for Obama did not reflect, as some supposed, the advent of a permanent Democratic majority.\u00a0 Some studies had suggested that\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/philosophicalfragments\/2010\/10\/26\/publication-bias-and-a-pact-between-you-and-me\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Publication Bias - 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