Duane Smith has written a delightful post that reflects on and analyses the point of view of someone who doesn\u2019t trust the experts<\/a>. Duane\u2019s whole post is important and insightful, and is worth reading and sharing widely. In his post, Duane quotes Isaac Asimov, and since it gets at the heart of the matter in a very memorable way, I want to share it below. The quote itself is well known and you\u2019ve probably heard it before, but it bears repeating.<\/p>\nAsimov received a letter which claimed that the frequent overturning of prior \u201cknowledge\u201d in human history suggests that we should all assume we are wrong about everything. In response, Asimov wrote, \u201cJohn, when people thought the earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the earth was spherical, they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.\u201d<\/p>\n
The above quote from Asimov is in fact a self-quotation he offered in an essay he wrote entitled \u201cThe Relativity of Wrong.<\/a>\u201d It is also a good read, and focuses on making the point that, even if we are wrong now, we are almost certainly less wrong<\/i>\u00a0about a great many things than our predecessors. Truth is not a simple, sharp either\/or dichotomy. There are degrees of wrongness<\/i>. And expertise is about using our best resources, tools, and the expertise of those who have studied a subject in detail, not so as to eliminate any chance of being wrong to any extent, but to maximize our chance of being right, and being right about as much as possible and to the greatest extent possible.<\/p>\n
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