The only surprise would be if there were no surprises

This is a pretty decent article on the thinking re the election of the next pope. John Allen is a terrific writer and a true expert on the internal/political machinations of the Vatican.

Although Pope John Paul II has appointed all but three of the cardinals who will elect his successor, Allen said it is a misconception that the next pope will be similar to the current one.

“It doesn’t work like that,” declared Allen before a rapt audience of hundreds. “Colleges of cardinals appointed entirely by one pope do not elect a reproduction of that pope as his successor.”

This is borne out historically. For example, noted Allen, while Pope Pius XII appointed all but two of the 51 cardinals who elected his successor, the next pope elected was the “strikingly” different Pope John XXIII.

“We are going to be surprised by the next pope,” said Allen.

Wouldn’t be the first time. There are some old sayings about Papal Conclaves…the most famous is: “the man who goes in as Pope comes out a Cardinal.” Meaning, of course, that the “favorite” is almost never the Cardinal who emerges as the new Pontiff. And the surprises don’t end there. The fact is, most of the time the new pope has a few surprises of his own. When Roncalli was elevated at an advanced (past 70) years, becoming Pope John XXIII, many progressives bitterly declared that the conclave had elected “an interim pope,” someone to maintain the status quo and not trouble the waters. The church is still reverberating from the changes initiated under his reign.

When Wotjyla became John Paul II, many progressives applauded because he was an intellectual, an artist, a mulitlingual “sophisticate” with a strong record on Social Justice. Surprise! While I disagree with those who would characterize John Paul as a “Conservative,” he has certainly disappointed those who were expecting to break boundaries in terms of dogma and tradition.

The Holy Spirit is tricky and unknowable. I personally wouldn’t try to predict anything where She is concerned.