{"id":11516,"date":"2015-05-31T10:36:33","date_gmt":"2015-05-31T14:36:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/admin.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?p=11516"},"modified":"2015-05-31T10:36:33","modified_gmt":"2015-05-31T14:36:33","slug":"concussion-tests-and-a-voting-mess-538","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2015\/05\/concussion-tests-and-a-voting-mess-538.html","title":{"rendered":"Concussion Tests and a Voting Mess [538]"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

Here\u2019s the roundup of what I\u2019ve been working on at FiveThirtyEight over the last week:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The \u2018One Person, One Vote\u2019 Case Relies On Statistics That Nobody Has<\/a><\/h3>\n

The plaintiffs are challenging the usual method (counting total number of people living in a district) and are asking that states use the total number of eligible voters instead. The trouble is, we don\u2019t have robust statistics on the number of eligible voters. If the Supreme Court were to set new standards for districting, we would need to overhaul the nation\u2019s statistics and surveys.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I was kind of surprised, once I started digging in, that we don\u2019t<\/i> have these numbers \u2014 just a series of fiddly approximations that probably don\u2019t match our standards for election law. \u00a0Even the more exhaustive attempts to figure out how many eligible voters there are throw up their hands at a certain point:<\/p>\n

\n

In a 2001 paper in the American Political Science Review, Michael McDonald and Samuel Popkin\u00a0suggested<\/a>\u00a0two other possible factors to consider when estimating the total number of eligible voters. First, some states have residency requirements that might make people who have recently moved ineligible. Second, citizens can lose their voting rights if they are ruled mentally incompetent. McDonald and Popkin thought both of these factors were more trouble than they were worth to model: The researchers estimated that only 1 percent of the voting-age population failed to meet residency requirements and that only 0.1 percent were mentally incompetent to vote.<\/p>\n

If the Supreme Court requires eligible voter estimates for districting, they may need to rule on whether McDonald and Popkin were right to exclude those groups \u2014 and on a host of other methodological questions \u2014 as the states scramble to commission constitutionally compatible surveys.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You can read the whole thing at FiveThirtyEight<\/a>, and, if you like, you can head there by way of SCOTUSblog<\/a>, which linked to my piece!<\/p>\n

\n<\/p>

Then I wound up covering sports, through the lens of epidemiology:<\/p>\n

We Don\u2019t Know How Well The NBA\u2019s Concussion Tests Work<\/a><\/h3>\n

So, if the tests are pretty accurate, why wasn\u2019t Thompson identified as possibly concussed until after the game?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to say, especially without information on the NBA-specific protocols, but sometimes tests are less accurate in real life than they are in a trial. Or a concussed player could just be unlucky; 5 percent or so pass a screening test in error.<\/p>\n

If Thompson hadn\u2019t mentioned that he felt ill, questions might not have been raised about whether the test failed. Players are a check on the test, but they may not feel free to speak up if they\u2019re passed in error.<\/p>\n

Continue reading at FiveThirtyEight\u2026<\/em><\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And here\u2019s a little bonus paragraph that didn\u2019t really belong in the article (since the NBA\u00a0does<\/em> use baseline tests in their concussion protocols), but I was just interested personally in how well the tests did when you didn\u2019t have a pre-concussion result to compare to:<\/p>\n

\n

Both the SCAT and the CCAT are best when administered as a before-and-after test, letting doctors compare the player\u2019s post-injury score to a baseline from the beginning of the season. If a baseline isn\u2019t available, both tests are a lot weaker. The SCAT sensitivity drops to 83% and the CCAT to 69%, making both much more likely to miss concussions.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And, if you\u2019re wondering where you\u00a0get<\/em> concussable people to run tests on (the answer is not that the scientists thwak them on the head)\u2026 most of the studies I read for this piece were done on rugby players. \u00a0Now\u00a0there\u2019s<\/em> a grim warning about a sport \u2014 \u201cNumber one choice of scientists who need concussion victims!\u201d
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s the roundup of what I\u2019ve been working on at FiveThirtyEight over the last week: \u00a0 The \u2018One Person, One Vote\u2019 Case Relies On Statistics That Nobody Has The plaintiffs are challenging the usual method (counting total number of people living in a district) and are asking that states use the total number of eligible […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":11318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nConcussion Tests and a Voting Mess [538]<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here's the roundup of what I've been working on at FiveThirtyEight over the last week:   The \u2018One Person, One Vote\u2019 Case Relies On Statistics That\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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