{"id":2392,"date":"2012-03-29T12:46:41","date_gmt":"2012-03-29T16:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?p=2392"},"modified":"2012-12-14T17:30:40","modified_gmt":"2012-12-14T22:30:40","slug":"making-book-on-god","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html","title":{"rendered":"Making Book on God"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/p>\n

A reader of Marginal Revolution<\/a> posed a theological thought experiment<\/a> this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. \u00a0Here\u2019s the pitch:<\/p>\n

In this thought experiment you are a contestant on a gameshow. The host of the gameshow (let\u2019s call him Alex) has a notecard that says whether or not god exists and to what extent he is involved in the affairs of mankind. You start with $1,000,000 that you must allocate across five possible categories:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Scriptural literalism.<\/strong> Bet into this category if you believe that one of the religious texts is precisely accurate.<\/li>\n
  2. God is omnipresent.<\/strong> Bet into this category if you believe that god is everywhere and intimately involved in our lives.<\/li>\n
  3. God as a guide.<\/strong> Bet into this category if you believe that god is only there for the major turning points in life and\/or when we reach out in prayer.<\/li>\n
  4. God as a watchmaker.<\/strong> Bet into this category if you believe that god set the universe in motion but is no longer around.<\/li>\n
  5. Atheism.<\/strong> Bet into this category if you believe that god does not exist.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    You can distribute the money however you like (e.g. all $1,000,000 in one category or $200,000 in each). After you\u2019ve allocated your $1,000,000 Alex flips over the notecard and reveals which of the five categories is correct. You keep any money that you\u2019ve allocated into the correct category.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    There are a couple problems with this set-up, which is why I didn\u2019t send my friend a bet distribution. \u00a0The nit-pickiest is that I would be really quite happy with $200,000, so I would be betting somewhere between my true expected probability distribution and a simple even split. \u00a0But the bigger problem is that I don\u2019t think these five buckets are clearly defined enough that I\u2019d feel comfortable betting at all (unless I really trusted the bookie).<\/p>\n

    Starting with the first category \u201cScriptural Literalism,\u201d I\u2019m a little chary of how the bookmaker is defining \u201cprecisely accurate.\u201d \u00a0I\u2019d put pretty much no money down on the\u00a0proposition\u00a0that the earth is 6000 years old or that the stars are painted on the inside of a celestial globe, which is what I think this category is meant to encapsulate. \u00a0However, some holy books (or subsections) are meant to be read as parables or allegories and they might be accurate in that sense. \u00a0There must be a better way to frame this section.<\/p>\n

    Categories 2-4 are too vague and probably need to be coupled with a definition of \u2018God.\u2019 \u00a0Otherwise, a undefined First Cause definitely satisfies 4, but so does a computer science grad student if we\u2019re all living in a simulation that has not been modified since start conditions. \u00a0Category 2 is so vague that I have no idea what satisfies it.<\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/p>\n

    If you guys can come up with a better way to to divvy up the sample space, I\u2019ll place my bets, and I\u2019ll put together a google form so that the readership can weigh in, too.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A reader of Marginal Revolution posed a theological thought experiment this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. \u00a0Here\u2019s the pitch: In this thought experiment you are a contestant on a gameshow. The host of the gameshow (let\u2019s call him Alex) has a notecard that says whether or not god exists and to what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[104,58],"class_list":["post-2392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-epistemologyphilosophy","tag-dealing-with-uncertainty","tag-gedankenexperiment"],"yoast_head":"\nMaking Book on God<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A reader of Marginal Revolution posed a theological thought experiment this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. \u00a0Here's the pitch: In this thought\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Making Book on God\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A reader of Marginal Revolution posed a theological thought experiment this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. \u00a0Here's the pitch: In this thought\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Unequally Yoked\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-03-29T16:46:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2012-12-14T22:30:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/online.sfsu.edu\/~hl\/g.bfilm.arbuckle.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Leah Libresco\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Leah Libresco\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html\",\"name\":\"Making Book on God\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-03-29T16:46:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-12-14T22:30:40+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/17ee17592b35b40040d5f5f7ea5ab464\"},\"description\":\"A reader of Marginal Revolution posed a theological thought experiment this week, and a friend challenged me to answer. \u00a0Here's the pitch: In this thought\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/03\/making-book-on-god.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Making Book on God\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/\",\"name\":\"Unequally Yoked\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/17ee17592b35b40040d5f5f7ea5ab464\",\"name\":\"Leah Libresco\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20e1e6a3a94c4e7928687804a41d888d?s=96&d=mm&r=r\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20e1e6a3a94c4e7928687804a41d888d?s=96&d=mm&r=r\",\"caption\":\"Leah Libresco\"},\"description\":\"Leah is the author of Arriving at Amen and Building the Benedict Option. 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