{"id":5071,"date":"2012-09-26T10:51:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-26T14:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?p=5071"},"modified":"2012-09-26T10:51:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-26T14:51:00","slug":"happy-petrov-day-celebrate-by-not-annihilating-everyone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/09\/happy-petrov-day-celebrate-by-not-annihilating-everyone.html","title":{"rendered":"Happy Petrov Day! Celebrate by not annihilating everyone!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/p>\n

Taken from the description of Petrov Day on LessWrong<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The story begins on September 1st, 1983, when Soviet jet interceptors shot down a Korean Air Lines civilian airliner after the aircraft crossed into Soviet airspace and then, for reasons still unknown, failed to respond to radio hails. 269 passengers and crew died, including US Congressman Lawrence McDonald. Ronald Reagan called it \u201cbarbarism\u201d, \u201cinhuman brutality\u201d, \u201ca crime against humanity that must never be forgotten\u201d. Note that this was already a very, very poor time for US\/USSR relations. Andropov, the ailing Soviet leader, was half-convinced the US was planning a first strike. The KGB sent a flash message to its operatives warning them to prepare for possible nuclear war.<\/p>\n

On September 26th, 1983, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was the officer on duty when the warning system reported a US missile launch. Petrov kept calm, suspecting a computer error.<\/p>\n

Then the system reported another US missile launch.<\/p>\n

And another, and another, and another.<\/p>\n

What had actually happened, investigators later determined, was sunlight on high-altitude clouds aligning with the satellite view on a US missile base.<\/p>\n

In the command post there were beeping signals, flashing lights, and officers screaming at people to remain calm. According to several accounts I\u2019ve read, there was a large flashing screen from the automated computer system saying simply \u201cSTART\u201d (presumably in Russian). Afterward, when investigators asked Petrov why he hadn\u2019t written everything down in the logbook, Petrov replied,\u201dBecause I had a phone in one hand and the intercom in the other, and I don\u2019t have a third hand.\u201d<\/p>\n

The policy of the Soviet Union called for launch on warning. The Soviet Union\u2019s land radar could not detect missiles over the horizon, and waiting for positive identification would limit the response time to minutes. Petrov\u2019s report would be relayed to his military superiors, who would decide whether to start a nuclear war.<\/p>\n

Petrov decided that, all else being equal, he would prefer not to destroy the world. He sent messages declaring the launch detection a false alarm, based solely on his personal belief that the US did not seem likely to start an attack using only five missiles.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I find it interesting to think about Petrov day in the context of another Less Wrong post (\u201cEthical Injunctions<\/a>\u201d which I noodled over in \u201cNot Even if it\u2019s the Right Thing to Do<\/a>\u201c). \u00a0The deterrence system wasn\u2019t built to have Petrov\u2019s qualms as a failsafe, and if they had been known ahead of time, they might have destabilized mutually assured destruction.<\/p>\n

So why are Petrov\u2019s\u00a0system-bucking actions admirable? \u00a0Is it just because he happened to be\u00a0right<\/em>? \u00a0That\u2019s not a very trustworthy heuristic, as almost everyone who thinks they\u2019re an exception to the rule thinks their judgement is accurate.<\/p>\n

In Petrov\u2019s case, the institution he was defying was about to be wiped out. \u00a0His move was\u00a0analogous\u00a0to the last round of a Prisoner\u2019s Dilemma game, where his choice can\u2019t inform the choices of others in the future.<\/p>\n

Contrast this with the ethical injunction-defying behavior of the CIA, when they carried out sham vaccinations<\/a> in order to get DNA samples and locate bin Laden\u2019s family in Pakistan. \u00a0By exploiting the trust we have in doctors, even just this once, even intending not to get caught, the CIA broke the system, and now, 160,000 children are not being vaccinated for polio<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, if you think you\u2019re an exception to the rule that\u00a0nearly everyone who thinks they\u2019re an exception to the rule is wrong<\/a>\u00a0argument, you\u2019re probably wrong. \u00a0And you might want to apply the back-up check that the CIA would have failed and Petrov passed: is your action going to collapse the institution or tradition that you\u2019re sneaking around? \u00a0If so,\u00a0don\u2019t. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Taken from the description of Petrov Day on LessWrong: The story begins on September 1st, 1983, when Soviet jet interceptors shot down a Korean Air Lines civilian airliner after the aircraft crossed into Soviet airspace and then, for reasons still unknown, failed to respond to radio hails. 269 passengers and crew died, including US Congressman […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-morality-in-practice"],"yoast_head":"\nHappy Petrov Day! 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