{"id":5278,"date":"2012-10-07T16:18:06","date_gmt":"2012-10-07T20:18:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?p=5278"},"modified":"2012-10-07T16:18:06","modified_gmt":"2012-10-07T20:18:06","slug":"just-one-more-thing-on-larping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html","title":{"rendered":"“Just one more thing” on LARPing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/p>\n

Via statistician Andrew Gelman\u2019s blog<\/a>, this description of Columbo\u2019s method seemed like a nice example about how something like the LARPing exercise<\/a> can return a negative result.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what Columbo does. He hears the killer\u2019s story and he takes it very seriously (it\u2019s murder, and Columbo never jokes about murder), examines all its implications, and finds where it doesn\u2019t fit the data. Then Columbo carefully examines the discrepancies, tries some model expansion, and eventually concludes that he\u2019s proved there\u2019s a problem.<\/p>\n

OK, now you\u2019re saying: Yeah, yeah, sure, but how does that differ from any other fictional detective? The difference, I think, is that the tradition is for the detective to find clues and use these to come up with hypotheses, or to trap the killer via internal contradictions in his or her statement. I see Columbo is different\u2014and more in keeping with chapter 6 of Bayesian Data Analysis\u2014in that he is taking the killer\u2019s story seriously and exploring all its implications. That\u2019s the essence of predictive model checking: you take advantage of the fact that you\u2019re working with a generative model, and you generate anything and everything you can.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I came up with the LARPing excercise in the context of Bob Seidensticker\u2019s participation in the atheist prayer experiment<\/a>, so I was recommending it as a way to make it easier to notice when you\u2019re wrong. \u00a0It lowers your emotional\u00a0resistance\u00a0to possibly having to admit error and gives you a way to think deeply and curiously about the implications of a rival theory. \u00a0Like Columbo, you may find your way from the inside to a contradiction, and then have more reason to think you\u2019ve done your due\u00a0diligence\u00a0to be able to write it off.<\/p>\n

I think the kind of model expansion that Gelman is talking about is also relevant to another problem Bob\u2019s been talking about: how to convince someone to come over to your side<\/a>. \u00a0You can present the arguments that convinced\u00a0you<\/em>, but if your interlocutor doesn\u2019t share enough of your first principles, they may be unmoved. \u00a0(Bob and I have been talking off-site about whether morality is objective, which is the linchpin of my conversion and isn\u2019t a premise that he grants).<\/p>\n

If the truth is out there, then LARPing as your opponent might give you a chance to see which parts of their worldview are the source of their predictions that some metaphysical point in your argument is false. \u00a0Then you can tinker, expand, and see if that bit makes other more obviously false\u00a0predictions\u00a0that might cause your opponent to strike it from their model. \u00a0You can try to slot it into your own worldview to try to see which gears it jams and how you know that those gears are necessary. \u00a0Working from both ends, you start trying to build a chain of logic from your opponent\u2019s position to yours.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If Bob wants to try any devotions to a saint while the prayer experiment is running, I think he might like Blessed Raymond Llull<\/a>. \u00a0I happen to like him a lot because he discovered the Condorcet method of voting<\/a> before Condorcet. \u00a0But Bob might be more interested in Llull\u2019s\u00a0Ars generalis ultima<\/em><\/a>. \u00a0Llull was trying to write an exhaustive apologetic, such that, wherever you started metaphysically, he would be able to lead you to Christianity. \u00a0This is the task Bob set for converts, so maybe, in his two minutes of prayer a day, he can ask Llull to give us a hand!<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Via statistician Andrew Gelman\u2019s blog, this description of Columbo\u2019s method seemed like a nice example about how something like the LARPing exercise can return a negative result. Here\u2019s what Columbo does. He hears the killer\u2019s story and he takes it very seriously (it\u2019s murder, and Columbo never jokes about murder), examines all its implications, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-debatetactics"],"yoast_head":"\n"Just one more thing" on LARPing<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Via statistician Andrew Gelman's blog, this description of Columbo's method seemed like a nice example about how something like the LARPing exercise can\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Just one more thing" on LARPing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Via statistician Andrew Gelman's blog, this description of Columbo's method seemed like a nice example about how something like the LARPing exercise can\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Unequally Yoked\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-10-07T20:18:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-0fotN3YHgmo\/TgYXjnK8cCI\/AAAAAAAAHqA\/JWRzS_Y8J_A\/s1600\/PeterFalkasColumbo.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Leah Libresco\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Leah Libresco\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html\",\"name\":\"\\\"Just one more thing\\\" on LARPing\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-10-07T20:18:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-10-07T20:18:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/17ee17592b35b40040d5f5f7ea5ab464\"},\"description\":\"Via statistician Andrew Gelman's blog, this description of Columbo's method seemed like a nice example about how something like the LARPing exercise can\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/2012\/10\/just-one-more-thing-on-larping.html#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"“Just one more thing” on LARPing\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/\",\"name\":\"Unequally Yoked\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/17ee17592b35b40040d5f5f7ea5ab464\",\"name\":\"Leah Libresco\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/unequallyyoked\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20e1e6a3a94c4e7928687804a41d888d?s=96&d=mm&r=r\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/20e1e6a3a94c4e7928687804a41d888d?s=96&d=mm&r=r\",\"caption\":\"Leah Libresco\"},\"description\":\"Leah is the author of Arriving at Amen and Building the Benedict Option. 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