{"id":14305,"date":"2013-03-05T16:33:46","date_gmt":"2013-03-05T21:33:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/yimcatholic\/?p=14305"},"modified":"2017-01-24T17:20:46","modified_gmt":"2017-01-24T22:20:46","slug":"a-little-message-about-the-conclave-from-the-noise-to-signal-ratio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patheos.com\/blogs\/yimcatholic\/2013\/03\/a-little-message-about-the-conclave-from-the-noise-to-signal-ratio.html","title":{"rendered":"A Little Message About the Conclave from the Noise to Signal Ratio UPDATED"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/head>

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

New Advent<\/em> shared a piece today from the Inquirer<\/em> in Philadelphia. It\u2019s an interview of Rocco Palmo of Whispers in the Loggia<\/a><\/em>. He basically says everything you need to know about the conclave right here,<\/p>\n

\u201cWithin nine to 12 days, the cardinals will have a conclave and it\u2019s a crapshoot. Nobody knows what\u2019s going to happen.<\/a>\u201c<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s what smart folks say about a random walk. And by that term I mean,<\/p>\n

The theory that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of each other, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, this is the idea that stocks take a random and unpredictable path<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Same thing for trying to outfox a sequestered conclave when we won\u2019t even know who is on the ballot.<\/p>\n

But Frank! We want, nay we need, to know all about the papabile!<\/p>\n

Noise, dear reader. All that stuff is just noise.<\/p>\n

Personally, I\u2019m glad we have cardinals to go to Rome when the \u201cAll Captains\u201d signal is hoisted from the flag ship. That way, see, I don\u2019t have to go there.<\/p>\n

The last time I was in Rome (1993) a) I wasn\u2019t a Catholic, and b) it\u2019s a miracle I didn\u2019t get thrown in jail. I think Rocco Palmo was maybe 10 years old at the time. Did I mention Rocco is staying home too? Smart kid.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not saying some of the noise isn\u2019t fun, though. Like adopting a cardinal<\/a> is a pretty cool idea. Fantasy Conclave<\/a>? Have fun with it. New Advent\u2019s Buzz Meter<\/a>? It would make a great electronic dartboard. The Register has the latest on the lineup<\/a>? Watching paint dry may be more exciting.<\/p>\n

But I tend not to get excited about stuff when I have absolutely no skin in the game. I\u2019m like the grizzled noncom who doesn\u2019t really care who the Commandant of the Marine Corps is, as long as he\u2019s more of a Marine than I am, and you salute him properly.<\/p>\n

Noise wise, I had some fun with the idea of who might be Pope as well<\/a>, but none of you have sent me pictures of cardinals drinking mugs of beer, so I\u2019m in the same boat with Rocco when I say I haven\u2019t the foggiest who the next Pope might be. And I sleep really well at night too.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll know who the next Pope is at the same time Rocco and I know. When we get the signal. When the white smoke rises from the chimney.<\/p>\n

UPDATE:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lizzie\u2019s going to Rome so we don\u2019t have to<\/a>!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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