Long Haul To Nomination If Romney Loses Michigan

LANSING, Michigan (AP) — The stakes are high for Mitt Romney in Tuesday’s Michigan primary where a loss in his home state would badly tarnish his image as the inevitable Republican presidential candidate and commit him to a long march to the nomination that could work to President Barack Obama’s advantage.

A victory Tuesday by rival Rick Santorum would be a public-relations nightmare for Romney, who was born and raised in Michigan. But the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign still would carry on with more money than any of his Republican rivals and remain better organized to compete to the end.

“There is no doubt that if he loses Michigan, perception-wise, the wheels come off the wagon,” said Greg McNeely, a former Michigan Republican Party director who’s now unaffiliated with any White House campaign. “Can he come back? Absolutely. But it destroys the inevitability perception that has been built around the campaign.”

Santorum has shot up in state polls of Michigan Republicans and even leads Romney in some. The former Pennsylvania senator is riding a wave of momentum after winning Feb. 7 caucuses in Minnesota, Colorado and a nonbinding primary in Missouri. But a lackluster debate performance on Wednesday seems to have halted Santorum’s surge.

Santorum has switched the campaign narrative recently to focus on social issues such as contraception. Obama stands to gain from a drawn-out Republican nominating race that forces the contenders to focus their appeals on issues dear to the party’s conservative base rather than reach out to independents, Obama has been most vulnerable on his handling of the economy, but signs are growing that the recovery from the Great Recession is picking up speed and Obama now leads in most polls against all his would-be rivals.

Santorum and Romney both focused their attention on Michigan Saturday with multiple campaign stops. The other Republican contenders, Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, and libertarian-leaning Texas congressman Ron Paul, are not competing actively in Michigan and are turning their attention to states where they are more likely to pick up delegates to the party’s national nominating convention in late August in Tampa, Florida.

Santorum told members of the anti-tax, small government tea party movement in St. Clair Shores on Saturday that the race in Michigan was close and “winnable,” and dismissed as “laughable” Romney’s claims that Santorum wasn’t conservative.

Romney is trying to attack Santorum’s credibility, a strategy used successfully against Gingrich in Iowa and Florida to stop the former House of Representatives speaker’s momentum after winning the South Carolina primary.

During a breakfast stop in Lansing, Romney said this year’s presidential vote was “an election about the soul of America.” He stuck to challenging Santorum’s commitment to conservative principles in light of votes in Congress that Santorum has said he now regrets.

At a suburban Detroit restaurant on Friday, Romney listed positions Santorum said he had taken to support his party even though they defied his principles. Such attacks underscore the urgency of Romney’s effort to blunt Santorum’s challenge, as do the heavy concentration of television ads Romney is airing and the three campaign events he planned in the state Saturday.

Yet, there’s a lighter touch at times.

Romney reminded an audience of business leaders of his boyhood in Michigan, tossing out the name of the Detroit hospital where he was born and the school where he attended kindergarten. One television ad features his father, a former Michigan governor and car executive.

Even more, he offered a prescription for the long-term revival of the all-important automotive industry, calling for union concessions and less aggressive emissions standards. Those proposals might help soften any hard feelings caused by Romney’s opposition to the federal bailout of the auto industry.

Santorum is pinning his hopes for victory in Michigan on strong support from evangelicals. A Roman Catholic, he is a beneficiary of more than two decades of cooperation between conservative Protestants and Catholics who set aside theological differences for the common cause of the culture war.

Santorum has nearly doubled his support from white evangelical Republicans, from 22 percent last month to 41 percent two weeks ago, according to surveys by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion and Public Life. An Associated Press-GfK survey conducted more recently, Feb.16-20, found Santorum leading Romney among white evangelicals, 44 percent to 21 percent. White Catholics also preferred Santorum, 38 percent to 29 percent, in the AP-GfK poll.

The high regard extends to Santorum’s personal life. His seven children have been home-schooled, a practice much more common among conservative American Protestants than Catholics, who have a network of parochial schools built over centuries. His concerns — opposing gay marriage and abortion, promoting traditional roles for women — contribute to that appeal.

Also drawing attention is Santorum’s 2008 speech to Ave Maria University in Florida, a private Catholic school established by the Domino’s Pizza founder. In it, Santorum warned that Satan has been waging a spiritual war against the United States and has infiltrated academia, liberal Protestant churches and politics.

Romney struggles with social conservatives not only because he once supported legalized abortion, which he now condemns, but also from distrust of Mormon teaching among some evangelical Christians. He rarely speaks directly about his faith or any other.

Even if Santorum beats Romney in Michigan, Romney will emerge with a healthy share of delegates Tuesday to add to his lead in the count. Romney is heavily favored to win the Arizona primary, which also takes place Tuesday, and claim all 29 delegates at stake.

In Michigan, there is the chance for a split decision if Romney wins the popular vote but Santorum comes away with more delegates. Most of the state’s 30 delegates are awarded two at a time to the winner in each of the state’s 14 congressional districts.

Still, Romney is far better organized in states that are voting March 6, such as Ohio and Southern bastions Georgia and Tennessee, once thought to be safe for Gingrich.