Sometimes we are too focused on statistics and discount rates, on climate patterns and economic costs of Kyoto, to pay much attention to what’s happening in our midst, especially among the most poor and vulnerable. I’ve mentioned the precarious nature of some Pacific islands on numerous occasions. But how many of us, fed on a diet of Britney Spears and OJ Simpson, pay any heed to what’s going on in Africa at the moment? Both east and west Africa are facing a devastaing crisis, the worst floods in a generation, affecting the lives of over a million people. In northern Ghana alone, 300,000 people have been forced to flee from floods. A Ghanaian official noted that entire villages have been wiped off the map. Hundreds of thousands more in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Sudan are also affected. And of course, harvests have been lost, and outbreaks of cholera and malaria seem inevitable.
Is the greater prevalence of extreme weather patterns evidence of global warming? Of course, this is the murkiest area in the whole climate change debate, but the evidence seems to answer in the affirmative. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drew attention to the consequences of rising temperatures being felt in the here and now, and named Africa as one of the most vulnerable areas. Too often in this whole debate, we tend to be short-sighted and insular. Why worry about global warming when last winter was so cold, when there were so few hurricanes this summer? Unfortunately, global warming affects the whole world, not just the small part that the US media cares about, and (as noted by the Stern review), the most vulnerable will pay the greater price. They already are.
I believe that the reluctance to take policy actions, surely justified on a probabilistic analysis (given the huge downside should the consequences of global warming be realized), reflects a basic unwillingness of a materialistic society to countenance any sacrifice in present consumption. Surely, we need to take a long-term view, and a global view.
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