Super Tuesday

I suppose we ought to make note of it here on Vox Nova. Here is what I’m looking at today:

• What is the difference between Democratic and Republican Party votes in Tennessee? This state could very easily move into the Democratic column in 2008. Add Missouri into this mix as well. Missouri may actually prove useful in discerning a Catholic vote. McCain took 44% of the Catholic Republican vote in Missouri. Catholics made up 20% of the Republican electorate. Catholics made up 23% of the Democratic electorate with Obama edging Clinton. The Democratic exit poll had 40% more respondents. I don’t know if this is representative or not though. I will update with official turnout numbers in the morning. Tennessee saw 10% higher exit poll participants for the Democrats. Again, I’ll have official numbers in the morning on that. Clinton beat Obama among Catholics in Tennessee, but Catholics were less than the 10% of the vote overall and she didn’t need any help there.  In Missouri, the Democrats out polled the Republics 1.4:1.  Translating this to the Catholic vote in the fall, the Democrat would likely win it 1.61 to 1.  For those who prefer friendly numbers, Democrats enjoy a little more than 60% of the Catholic electorate.
• What states does McCain lose? Presently, it is his nomination to lose. With California appearing to go to Romney, McCain might not have this finished.
• Assume any state Huckabee wins would have gone to McCain.
• One would be surprised if Clinton wins the nomination today. Obama could use a surprise or two. It appears Clinton’s Southern strategy will prevail. One should also note that on the Democratic side, being the candidate of the intellectuals is usually the kiss of death.
• The Hispanic vote out of California will be interesting. Four numbers: overall, Democratic, Republican, McCain. The Democrats will easily out poll the Republicans. Anything over 70/30, 80/20 gets into scary territory. Typically Hispanics have low turnout. It will be interesting to see if the immigration debate influences that turnout. It will also be interesting to see to what degree McCain benefits for his immigration stance.  Well, Hispanics made up 30% of the California Democratic Electorate.  They made up 14% of the Republican electorate.  McCain actually polled weakly among Hispanics.  Romney polled just plain awful.  Huckabee polled surprisingly strongly, getting 20% of the Hispanic vote versus 12% of the overall vote.  Giuliani pulled a surprising 15% among Hispanics.  As expected Democrats 78% more voters than Republicans.  This would put the Hispanic break to Democrats at 3.8.  This means nearly 80% of Hispanics favor Democrats.  It will be interesting to see how this plays in other heavily Hispanic states.