In the Democratic Primary, it is truly a tale of two parties. Our first stop in Ohio shows Obama losing the 65+ vote 72-26%. This demo makes up 14% of Ohio’s democratic primary voters. When we break up the vote tally by race and age, only whites under 30 broke for Obama, and that was just a 1% break in an exit poll; they make up 10% of Democratic primary voters. Among the 3 older white demographic, Clinton won them by between 20 and 48 percentile points. At this point, the religious breakdowns are pretty meangingless, because they are most likely describing the larger pheonomena. For example, Catholics broke strongly for Clinton, but 90% of the Catholics were white. One would also assume they were older. So I don’t think the 31 point break for Clinton among Catholics is describing a unique voter breakout.
Moving over to Texas, we see Clinton winning whites over 60 by 40 points. Here they made up only 12% of votes. More impressively for Clinton was Latino voters over age 60 (6% of voters) breaking by 62 points to Clinton. If it wasn’t for the 2:1 advantage Clinton had among Latino voters, Obama would have won Texas. Among all races, Obama won voters under 40 and Clinton won voters 50 and above. Voters in their 40s split evenly. Going forward and if Obama is the nominee, it will be interesting to see if Obama continues to have issues attracting older voters in a general election.
On the Republican side, McCain won all the contests last night by margins that would make Medvedev proud.
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