Catholics Lean Toward the Democrats

Mark Ambinder highlights some interesting new data from the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown. It shows that 60 percent of American Catholics support the Democratic party, or lean toward the Democratic party, while 36 percent support or lean toward the Republican party. Stripping out Hispanics changes the numbers only marginally: 57-40. This marks a distinct change from 2004, as Republican support has fallen a full 10 percentage points.

Especially interesting is the breakdown. The Catholic Republicans always made a great deal of the fact that the most devout were on their side, aligned with the evangelicals. This is simply not true, as the Democrats still lead by 10 percentage points among those who attend Mass at least once a week (53-43). Another myth is the generational divide: again, there are hardly any differences between those born before Vatican II, the Vatican II generation, the post-Vatican II crowd, and the younger “millenials”. Democrats also enjoy strong leads among Catholics who believe it is important to live a consistent ethic of life (59-38) and those who turn to Catholic teaching (in particular statements by the pope and bishops) when forming consciences (54-44).

So what are the issues? The study highlights three shifts: military force, taxes, and immigration. Asking a sequence of questions on different aspects of Catholic social teaching and comparing the results with similar questions posed in 2002 reveals the following:

Use of military force to overthrow governments “that support terrorism”: down 20 (43-63)

Increase taxes on the wealthiest: up 13 (65-52)

Decrease rate of immigration: down 6 (54-60)

An equitable society entails focusing on the needs of the poor: up 4 (54-50)

All life from conception to natural death is sacred: down 4 (41-45)

Women should have “right to choose”: up 3 (58-55)

Government should guarantee basic healthcare for all: up 3 (78-75)

Workers have right to living wage and to join unions: down 1 (82-83)

Support death penalty: no change (67)

These results are interesting. While American Catholics are becoming more aligned with Catholic teaching on numerous issues, the support for a consistent ethic of life is not that high. Witness the majorities in favor of abortion and the death penalty. Despite claims to the contrary, this was not the reason many Catholics flocked to the Republicans in 2004, and it is not the reason they are shifting again in 2008.