We live in an era when codpiece diplomacy, otherwise known as adolescent posturing, is seen as a sign of seriousness. We live in an era when Republican presidential candidates try to outdo each other in terms of who can talk the toughest in terms of pounding and pummelling the “terrorists”. We live in an era when a leading Democrat gained both popular support and elite-opinion approval by claiming she is best prepared to take a “3am call” when in fact her experience consists largely of being a smiling-and-waving first lady. This really boggles the mind, especially since the last eight years can be read as a textbook lesson against this very kind of juvenile codpiece diplomacy, an affirmation that the United States desperately needs to see nuance and face the consequences of its actions.
Despite some mis-steps, and much pandering, I see Obama as the “post-codpiece” candidate. McCain, on the other hand, is largely a relic of the past. He looks like a relic, acts like a relic, and talks like a relic. Consider the Russian invasion of Georgia. McCain immediately tries to show that he has a bigger codpiece than both George Bush and Barack Obama by issuing bellicose statements pertaining to Russian actions in Georgia, and arguing that NATO should revisit its decision to reject Georgia’s candidacy. And the media, on cue, oohs and ahs about his seriousness, his gravitas, while Obama is frolicking around the beaches of Hawaii with his daughters (iron law of codpiece diplomacy: family values are suspended when an uppity foreign country needs a good bombing).
Except for one minor little issue: McCain is completely and utterly crazy. He’s out of his mind. As Greg Djerejian points out, this is exactly this kind of thinking that put Georgia in its present predicament. Various elements in the United States egged on a hotheaded Georgian president with vague promises, backed up by rhetoric and little else, that could never be delivered. And Russia called their bluff, pure and simple. George Kennan, another relic from the past (he died a few years ago at age 101, making him one of the few people in public life actually older than McCain…but he’s dead now!), but from a time when diplomats actually understood the consequences of their actions, put it best:
“(E)xpanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold war era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”
Another thought occurs to me. Notice the bellicosity among the usual suspects on the right, among the neoconnish enclaves, from the NRO and elsewhere: they are practically wallowing in the idea of a new cold war. What in the world happened to the greatest existential threat to world civilization since Alaric sacked Rome (let’s ignore the fact that the august Holy Roman emperor Charles V did the same thing!) — radical islam? Suddenly that gets brushed under the rug, as a new enemy is found, or an old flame rekindled. You can almost feel the love, or the hate, or both. As always, the great American dualist temptation comes to the fore– one is either “good” or “evil” and all shades of gray are eliminated, perferably by a muscular man with a flag pin and a very large gun.
I will end on a sinister note, for McCain’s connection to the Georgian crisis is closer than it seems. McCain’s top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, is actually a Georgian lobbyist, and has taken $800,000 from his client since 2004. Scheuemann worked in the past with Ahmad Chalabi in promoting the Iraq war, which in itself should set off cathedral-size warning bells. In 2005, Scheuemann nudged McCain to nominate his client, Saakashvili, for a nobel peace prize. What poison has Scheunemann been feeding the Georgians? That they could do whatever they liked and America would back them, “come to their rescue if their brinkmanship with the Russians went bad”? Is that what Saakashvili believed, as seems likely from his rhetoric in the wake of the Russian invasion? If that is true, it puts McCain in an even worse position.
And now let me end by putting on my conspiracy theory hat: Karl Rove was in Yalta in mid-July, and met president Saakashvili. Did Rove say anything to Saakashvili about “how a firmer hand in South Ossetia might help Georgia ensure its strong relationship with the US going forward”? I have no idea, but a horrendous possibility has opened up: that Rove and Scheumemann cooked up a little war to the benefit of the new master of the codpiece, John McCain. October in August! Even the DC weather is playing along!
It certainly fits the mold. And it makes the election of John McCain even more frightening, if that is possible. But even if this dog does not bark, and Rove was simply flopping his flabby belly quite innocently over a Crimean beach chair, the fact remains: actually implementing the policies that emanate from the mouth of McCain would turn the world into a very dangerous and unstable place. And for that reason, he should not be elected president.
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