Year In Review

Best to get this done before the forthcoming 2009 predictions so as to allow egg nog and an adult beverage or two to separate the outcomes of my present year predictions from those I make for next year.  Original predictions for 2008 are available here.  A mid-year review of the same is available here.

1. The dominant issue for 2008 will be the economy.  Parts of the country are presently in recession.  Whether the country as a whole joins in a recession is another question.
   I think this is undeniable.  The National Bureau of Economic Statistics declared the country was in a recession since December 2007.  That went out on a limb with this assessment in December of 2008.  Ending the year, Lehman Brothers is bankrupt, the US government is the conservator of AIG, and Citigroup is functionally bankrupt.
2. Decoupling theory proves false as Europe and Asia follow the U.S. in a downturn.
   Check.
3. Gas peaks at $3.50 gal in WI.  This would place oil prices 41 cents higher than they are presently.  This peak is not retraced for several years as world wide demand wanes due to recession.
   We’ll have to wait several years to see how this pans out.  On my way to work I observer $1.70/gal.  However, rather than be content in my superiority, I reversed course mid-year claiming a secular bull in commodities.  The initial prediction has proved right, and the revision has proved spectacularly wrong.
4. The USCCB is relatively quiet about the election signaling dissatisfaction with both party’s choices.
   There are arguments that could be made, but I will declare myself wrong on this count.  While not always addressing the election per se, the USCCB and the bishops in general were active in addressing issues at the forefront of this election.  In an election where the now Vice President-elect and the Speaker of the House are publicly rebuked for rehashing arguments that have worn out their intellectual welcome since at least the 60s, it is difficult to conceive of a situation outside excommunication where this prediction could be falsified if one refused to do so here.  There is certainly a faction of bishops that is not in a pox on both their houses mode.  (I suppose I shouldn’t forget the anonymous correspondent at the Vatican that seems to be showing up on a lot issues as of late.  Yes, I believe it to be the same person in each case, and, no, I do not believe that person to be Burke, but a low level functionary whose influence is grossly exaggerated.)
5. The Green Bay diocese remains vacant.
   Welcome Bishop Ricken.
6. The bishops in the US will be ignored as they plead for our country’s leaders to address the problems of undocumented workers.  Secular alarm over illegal immigration will grow even though immigration will slow significantly due to the recession.
   The immigration debate ended in late 2007.  Neither candidate addressed the issue in the 2008 election owing to large agreement between the candidates.  Immigration has slowed significantly.  However, community organizations against immigration saw its zenith in 2007.  In 2008, a couple local anti-illegal immigrant measures were even reversed; some measures were struck down by the courts, not to be revisited.
7. American Idol will have its weakest season ever.
   Check
8. Tattoos will lose their popularity with women, becoming conventionally known as stupid things done when one was young.
   I have looked for any confirming evidence on a wane in tattoos.  I can find none for anyone, let alone women.  This late 2007 article noting their corporatization I’m afraid puts the death knell in this prediction.  A benefit of this research is that at least I know how to get a cheap set of tires now.