In 2009

I’m struck by a melancholy as I compose this.  Typically these posts are the easiest to write.  They typically involve light hearted, jovial topics.  Any challenges put forward are typically just that, challenges to be overcome.  I believe however we have entered a period where these challenges aren’t solved.  Rather, our present time will increasingly be marked by perseverance.  This perseverance is not the cliched sort of the impatience before triumph, but rather the slow ebbing away before death itself takes over.  Having said that, let’s get on with the predictions.

1. At least one of the 50 largest cities in the U.S. will default on its bond obligations.  Many will be bailed out in one form or another, but at least one will actually default.
2. One of the major world stock exchanges (NYSE, London, Tokyo) will be closed for trading for one unscheduled day.
3. Latin America will be rocked by instability as northern instability moves southward to Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.
4. The Chinese Catholic Church will not reconcile with Rome this year.
5. New York will not see a new bishop.
6. There will be a relatively quiet year for the USCCB.  Given the willingness of some bishops to act as if their bishoprics were universal, open fighting will be avoided.
7. The number of new marriages will decline.
8. The Megachurch movement will increasingly be identified with the boomer generation.
9. Beer sales will exceed 215MM barrels.  (2007 sales were 212.9)