Iowa in Review

Your resident seer didn’t do too badly.  (See herefor original predictions.)  I called Thompson’s deficit on the nose.  I called the order on the Dem side and predicted correctly that Edwards and Clinton would be statistically close.  I overestimated support for McCain and Romney, and I underestimated support for Huckabee.  What does it all mean?

• Thompson and McCain can legitimately say they have the potential of receiving support in the Midwest in a general election.  Although Giuliani didn’t campaign in Iowa, a 3% showing is very bad for someone with his national numbers.  Those are the numbers of a one-issue or regional candidate.
• It won’t be official until South Carolina, but it is a two-way race between Obama and Clinton.  Edwards doesn’t have the organization or money to contest in any other State.  While the coverage is negative for Clinton today, she has advantages in a two-man race that she doesn’t enjoy in a 3-way race.
• Anyone who finishes below Huckabee in New Hampshire is out of contention for the Republican nomination.  What if Huckabee wins New Hampshire?  Well, he won’t, but if he were to win New Hampshire he would have won in a region of the country that his platform is least suited, so I would standby my original statement.  I expect Romney or McCain to win New Hampshire and Huckabee to get 3rd.
• What about Fred?  I have never been kind to Fred in the analysis, because he has shown himself to be an exceptionally poor candidate.  Fred does have a path to the nomination now.  He must finish above Huckabee in New Hampshire to be relevant in South Carolina.  Even if Fred were to lose to Huckabee and somehow win South Carolina, he would still be finished because he would be labeled a regional candidate.
• Romney doesn’t have to win New Hampshire.  He does have to make sure that McCain does poorly in South Carolina and Michigan.  Romney has the money for a negative campaign.
• McCain needs an honorable second in South Carolina or Michigan.  If he doesn’t, he will be dismissed as a regional northeastern candidate, despite his Arizona home.
• Democrats enjoyed a 2:1 turnout advantage in Iowa.  This does not bode well for Republican candidates in the general election.

Update:

In very Catholic Dubuque County, the results were Obama (36.1), Clinton (31.1), and Edwards (30.0).  For the Republicans, the results were Romney (41.6), McCain (18.7), and Huckabee (14.7)