In my prediction below, some may have detected a lack of love for McCain. I don’t believe I have written on McCain. I’m not excited about his candidacy. I’m not a huge fan of mavericks. I think he is reckless in his foreign policy pronouncements. I do support his believe in balanced budgets, and I thought he showed real leadership in the immigration debate. If I had to pick his greatest fault, I would say it is his need to be in the media spotlight. I would personally have a difficult time for voting for him, because I don’t believe he is relevant in the discussion of today’s problems.
My focus here is on his electoral prospects. We aren’t looking at a blank slate with McCain. He has perpetually reached a plateau of about 30% in national polling. He could maintain a 2nd home in New Hampshire. He has looked good before going into South Carolina, and he has been trounced in South Carolina. Expect McCain to insert his foot in his mouth sometimes between here and South Carolina. If McCain has a 3rd place finish in Michigan, his inevitability will vanish.
Why haven’t I written off Romney? He is the only candidate to have truly competed in every state. He has money and organization. The other supposed national candidate is Giuliani, and I used supposed with reason. His poll numbers are sinking in Florida as I type. Huckabee has neither the money nor the organization. He may end up sending the nomination to the convention to be decided, but the Evangelical organization that aided him in Iowa is present in fewer than half the states. McCain still doesn’t have money, and, even if he did, he has proven himself incapable of maintaining an organization. For better or worse, he is an Army of One.
I wrote above that McCain wasn’t relevant to the problems we face today. I’m afraid that is true about more than him. If the future of this country was holding the election, 20- to 40-year-olds, the fall match-up would be between Huckabee and Obama, hands down. They also happen to be the two youngest candidates in the race. We are faced with a Democratic Party that thinks we are re-living the glorious McGovern days. For the Republicans, they think it is 1976 and we are debating whether we need a steady candidate like Gerald Ford or the conservative revolutionary Reagan.
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