During earlier recessions, there was trend of some unemployed people entering seminary. We did some evaluation of that in the past year. It appears that trend has not repeated this time.
The finances at seminaries have been tough. In the decade of 2000-2010 there wasn't a single year when the majority of free-standing seminaries had a balanced budget after you take the standard recommended draw of 5 percent from their endowments. Over that decade, most schools drew from their reserves at a higher rate. So, the schools were already economically stressed even before this current downward trend.
What changes are going on in the governance of seminaries?
The governance in a lot of schools is under a fairly significant transition right now, especially in the composition of boards. In earlier years, when the denomination was paying the bills for the schools, the boards were made up primarily of ministers and denominational leaders. As funding changes, the school has to turn to a board not comprised of clergy but of persons who have the capacity to cultivate major gifts for the school.
One inherent challenge is when a seminary brings on development-oriented board members, it almost always involves adding people who never went to seminary themselves. The kind of boards that are emerging comprise people who can contribute to the board but have limited understanding of the schools.
Another change in governance is a tendency for schools that have been freestanding to become a part of larger institutions in which their cost of doing business goes down. Last year, Mennonite Brethren Biblical Seminary merged with sister school Fresno Pacific University. More recently, Byron Klaus, President of the Assemblies of God Theological Seminary, and the Assemblies of God Church have begun a church council-approved process of merging three schools in their headquarters community, Springfield, Missouri. This will reduce costs, but it will change the governance quite significantly.
What changes are churches asking for within seminaries?
Churches are at a moment where they are relatively impatient with the long tradition. They would rather have someone who knows how to help the church grow than someone who knows the long history of Christian belief through the ages. They want pastoral effectiveness. Some are saying it may be better for a pastor to be trained in entrepreneurship than theology. Churches want people who can "get it done" more than those who know our faith tradition.
There was a news report recently about Joel Osteen in which he said that he felt that a part of his attractiveness is that he doesn't have any seminary background, that his language is not theological. Some people are looking at him and saying, "He didn't need any seminary education. How can our church be more like that?"
But there is a problem with this—the Osteen model is not necessarily a duplicable one. If seminaries focused on educating the next Joel Osteens we would, in fact, be mis-educating the majority of students, most of whom will be pastoring smaller congregations without a paid staff.
These are tough times for a lot of pastors and for seminary students as they make the move into ministry. Churches are feeling fearful. It is not just mainline churches that are struggling. In fact, the Church of the Nazarene and the Southern Baptists have faced recent declines. Churchgoers are shifting to larger congregations. Most seminaries get a cue from larger churches that say, "You're not educating the people we can use." I think that is right. But, once again, the majority of all graduates will spend most of their ministries in solo pastor situations. If the schools were educating everyone for the mega-churches, neither solo-pastor congregations nor students would be well served.
What changes do you hear students asking for?
The students are arriving at seminary with less commitment to the institutional church. Many of them come without a long congregational history. We have a decreasing number of M.Div. students who say they want to go into congregational ministry. They want to do something, but are not so sure it should be in a congregational setting.
How has the student demographic of seminaries changed in recent years? How will it change in the next decade?
The percentage of students of color is increasing at ATS schools. We have a project currently underway called Preparing for 2040—that is the time when the population of color in the U.S. for the first time will be greater than the white population. We are currently educating the students at ATS schools who, if they spend their career in ministry, will span that transitional period.
Right now among ATS schools, 38 percent are students of color; but, only about 19 percent of the faculty. We have to think about doing seminary work in a multi-racial context. For instance, we believe it is important to increase the number of faculty of color.
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