The Predictive Power Of Game Theory

In this clip from The Daily Show, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita discusses predicting world affairs using models based on game theory to an extraordinarily high degree of accuracy (twice that of the CIA by their own estimation). It’s really exciting stuff:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
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His book is called on The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future and sounds must-read to me.

Your Thoughts?

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About Daniel Fincke

Dr. Daniel Fincke  has his PhD in philosophy from Fordham University and spent 11 years teaching in college classrooms. He wrote his dissertation on Ethics and the philosophy of Friedrich Nietzsche. On Camels With Hammers, the careful philosophy blog he writes for a popular audience, Dan argues for atheism and develops a humanistic ethical theory he calls “Empowerment Ethics”. Dan also teaches affordable, non-matriculated, video-conferencing philosophy classes on ethics, Nietzsche, historical philosophy, and philosophy for atheists that anyone around the world can sign up for. (You can learn more about Dan’s online classes here.) Dan is an APPA  (American Philosophical Practitioners Association) certified philosophical counselor who offers philosophical advice services to help people work through the philosophical aspects of their practical problems or to work out their views on philosophical issues. (You can read examples of Dan’s advice here.) Through his blogging, his online teaching, and his philosophical advice services each, Dan specializes in helping people who have recently left a religious tradition work out their constructive answers to questions of ethics, metaphysics, the meaning of life, etc. as part of their process of radical worldview change.

  • Aaron Greenberg

    I only half paid attention. Most people don’t use logic, so you can’t count on logic, even the logic of self-interest or greed. I’m not saying you can’t see where things are likely to go–you should try that exercise, but counting on the result is like betting on playoff games based on what Mike Francesca or Chris Russo think. Even if their argument comes across as sound, it doesn’t take into account the wild randomness and illogic of reality.