Open Thread: Election Predictions

As the world’s eyes turn to America and tomorrow’s election, I just have to join in. This is an open thread for election predictions, rumors, speculation, results reporting, and whatever else you can think of. Once the polls have closed and the results are all in, I hope to write a longer post, most likely to be put up Wednesday, analyzing the results.

So, what do you think is going to happen? I have three predictions:

  • Barack Obama is going to be the next President of the United States. This one ought to be a no-brainer. His massive leads in money, volunteer organization, and supporters’ enthusiasm, plus the fact that he’s been leading for weeks in both national polls and polls of the essential swing states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado), plus his lopsided advantage in the prediction markets, all point to one virtually inescapable conclusion of victory. Some late-breaking results show he’s even within single digits in John McCain’s own home state, Arizona.
  • The Democrats will get to 60 seats in the Senate. This prediction was also made (in two parts) by Bob Geiger, a pundit and editorial cartoonist who can claim the distinction of correctly predicting the outcome of every Senate race in 2006. There are more than enough pickup opportunities to make this possible. Frankly, I think the Democrats have an easier road to 60 seats now than they did of getting 51 in 2006 (which required down-to-the-wire recounts and the ousting of Republican incumbents in two traditionally red states).
  • Prop 8, the odious anti-gay-marriage bill in California, will be defeated. Out-of-state forces have poured enormous amounts of money and effort into supporting it, but there’s little question that Obama is going to win California easily, and I think the wave of voters who support him will also vote against Prop 8 and consign it to defeat.

Am I being overly optimistic? If you see a different scenario in mind, let’s hear it! In the meantime, here are some other election-related posts for your perusal:

And finally, to my American readers, don’t forget to vote tomorrow! Here’s a link to find your polling place if you don’t already know.

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